Inattentive Consumers in Markets for Services

In an experiment on markets for services, we find that consumers are likely to stick to default tariffs and achieve suboptimal outcomes. We find that inattention to the task of choosing a better tariff is likely to be a substantial problem in addition to any task and tariff complexity effect. The institutional setup on which we primarily model our experiment is the UK electricity and gas markets, and our conclusion is that the new measures by the UK regulator Ofgem to improve consumer outcomes are likely to be of limited impact

Combining ‘‘real effort’’ with induced effort costs: the ball-catching task

We introduce the “ball-catching task”, a novel computerized task, which combines a tangible action (“catching balls”) with induced material cost of effort. The central feature of the ball-catching task is that it allows researchers to manipulate the cost of effort function as well as the production function, which permits quantitative predictions on effort provision. In an experiment with piece-rate incentives we find that the comparative static and the point predictions on effort provision are remarkably accurate. We also present experimental findings from three classic experiments, namely, team production, gift exchange and tournament, using the task. All of the results are closely in line with the stylized facts from experiments using purely induced values. We conclude that the ball-catching task combines the advantages of real effort tasks with the use of induced values, which is useful for theory-testing purposes as well as for applications

Prolidase deficiency causes spontaneous T cell activation and lupus-like autoimmunity

Prolidase deficiency (PD) is a multisystem disorder caused by mutations in the PEPD gene, which encodes a ubiquitously expressed metallopeptidase essential for the hydrolysis of dipeptides containing C-terminal proline or hydroxyproline. PD typically presents in childhood with developmental delay, skin ulcers, recurrent infections, and, in some patients, autoimmune features that can mimic systemic lupus erythematosus. The basis for the autoimmune association is uncertain, but might be due to self-antigen exposure with tissue damage, or indirectly driven by chronic infection and microbial burden. In this study, we address the question of causation and show that Pepd-null mice have increased antinuclear autoantibodies and raised serum IgA, accompanied by kidney immune complex deposition, consistent with a systemic lupus erythematosus–like disease. These features are associated with an accumulation of CD4 and CD8 effector T cells in the spleen and liver. Pepd deficiency leads to spontaneous T cell activation and proliferation into the effector subset, which is cell intrinsic and independent of Ag receptor specificity or antigenic stimulation. However, an increase in KLRG1+ effector CD8 cells is not observed in mixed chimeras, in which the autoimmune phenotype is also absent. Our findings link autoimmune susceptibility in PD to spontaneous T cell dysfunction, likely to be acting in combination with immune activators that lie outside the hemopoietic system but result from the abnormal metabolism or loss of nonenzymatic prolidase function. This knowledge provides insight into the role of prolidase in the maintenance of self-tolerance and highlights the importance of treatment to control T cell activation

Intrinsic honesty and the prevalence of rule violations across societies

Deception is common in nature and humans are no exception. Modern societies have created institutions to control cheating, but many situations remain where only intrinsic honesty keeps people from cheating and violating rules. Psychological, sociological and economic theories suggest causal pathways to explain how the prevalence of rule violations in people’s social environment, such as corruption, tax evasion or political fraud, can compromise individual intrinsic honesty. Here we present cross-societal experiments from 23 countries around the world that demonstrate a robust link between the prevalence of rule violations and intrinsic honesty. We developed an index of the ‘prevalence of rule violations’ (PRV) based on country-level data from the year 2003 of corruption, tax evasion and fraudulent politics. We measured intrinsic honesty in an anonymous die-rolling experiment. We conducted the experiments with 2,568 young participants (students) who, due to their young age in 2003, could not have influenced PRV in 2003. We find individual intrinsic honesty is stronger in the subject pools of low PRV countries than those of high PRV countries. The details of lying patterns support psychological theories of honesty. The results are consistent with theories of the cultural co-evolution of institutions and values, and show that weak institutions and cultural legacies that generate rule violations not only have direct adverse economic consequences, but might also impair individual intrinsic honesty that is crucial for the smooth functioning of society

Uterine papillary serous and clear cell carcinomas predict for poorer survival compared to grade 3 endometrioid corpus cancers

To compare the survival of women with uterine papillary serous carcinoma (UPSC) and clear cell carcinoma (CC) to those with grade 3 endometrioid uterine carcinoma (G3EC). Demographic, pathologic, treatment, and survival information were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program from 1988 to 2001. Data were analysed using Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression methods. Of 4180 women, 1473 had UPSC, 391 had CC, and 2316 had G3EC cancers. Uterine papillary serous carcinoma and CC patients were older (median age: 70 years and 68 vs 66 years, respectively; P<0.0001) and more likely to be black compared to G3EC (15 and 12% vs 7%; P<0.0001). A higher proportion of UPSC and CC patients had stage III–IV disease compared to G3EC patients (52 and 36% vs 29%; P<0.0001). Uterine papillary serous carcinoma, CC and G3EC patients represent 10, 3, and 15% of endometrial cancers but account for 39, 8, and 27% of cancer deaths, respectively. The 5-year disease-specific survivals for women with UPSC, CC and G3EC were 55, 68, and 77%, respectively (P<0.0001). The survival differences between UPSC, CC and G3EC persist after controlling for stage I–II (74, 82, and 86%; P<0.0001) and stage III–IV disease (33, 40, and 54; P<0.0001). On multivariate analysis, more favourable histology (G3EC), younger age, and earlier stage were independent predictors of improved survival. Women with UPSC and CC of the uterus have a significantly poorer prognosis compared to those with G3EC. These findings should be considered in the counselling, treating and designing of future trials for these high-risk patients

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994–2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011–2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development

A prospective study of the relationship between prediagnostic Human Papillomavirus seropositivity and HPV DNA in subsequent cervical carcinomas

Several prospective studies with invasive carcinoma as endpoint have supported Human Papillomavirus as a cause of cervical carcinoma. However, the largest study used seroepidemiology and did not analyse presence of Human Papillomavirus DNA in the subsequent tumour. Linkage of serum bank registries and cancer registries had identified 196 women with a registered cervical carcinoma after donation of a serum sample. For the present study, biopsies for 127 cases could be located, verified to contain invasive carcinoma and be amplified by PCR. Three control women who had remained alive and without cervical carcinoma during an equal length of follow-up had been matched to each of the case women and tested for HPV antibodies. Presence of Human Papillomavirus DNA in the tumours was analysed by general primer and type specific PCR. HPV16-seropositive women had a relative risk of 4.4 (95% CI: 2.2–8.8) to develop cervical carcinoma carrying HPV16 DNA. By contrast, there was no excess risk for Human Papillomavirus 16-seropositive women to develop cervical carcinoma devoid of HPV16 DNA. Prediagnostic HPV16 seropositivity was strongly correlated with later HPV16 DNA positivity of the tumour (P<0.001) and prediagnostic HPV18 seropositivity correlated with HPV18 DNA in the tumour (P<0.03). The link between prediagnostic seropositivity and type of viral DNA in the cancer implies that the carcinogenic effect of infection with these viruses is dependent on persistent presence of type-specific viral DNA

Conducting interactive experiments online

Online labor markets provide new opportunities for behavioral research, but conducting economic experiments online raises important methodological challenges. This particularly holds for interactive designs. In this paper, we provide a methodological discussion of the similarities and differences between interactive experiments conducted in the laboratory and online. To this end, we conduct a repeated public goods experiment with and without punishment using samples from the laboratory and the online platform Amazon Mechanical Turk. We chose to replicate this experiment because it is long and logistically complex. It therefore provides a good case study for discussing the methodological and practical challenges of online interactive experimentation. We find that basic behavioral patterns of cooperation and punishment in the laboratory are replicable online. The most important challenge of online interactive experiments is participant dropout. We discuss measures for reducing dropout and show that, for our case study, dropouts are exogenous to the experiment. We conclude that data quality for interactive experiments via the Internet is adequate and reliable, making online interactive experimentation a potentially valuable complement to laboratory studies