57 research outputs found

    Morfologija vulve i simpatrija vrsta roda Haemonchus u prirodno invadiranih ovaca i koza u području Ogaden u istočnoj Etiopiji.

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    A study was carried out to determine the type of vulvar process of 3187 and 2386 female Haemonchus worms recovered from naturally infected sheep and goats respectively, during the period from August 2003 to March 2004. In addition a total of 1159 adult male Haemonchus worms from sheep and 1285 from goats were subjected to a species identification study. The study revealed that out of the total female worms from sheep 49.5% linguiform, 28.5% knobbed and 23% smooth vulvar morph types were identified. Likewise, from goats 53.8% linguiform, 18. 5% knobbed and 27.6% smooth vulvar morph types were identified. Significant variations (P<0.05) were observed in proportions between the three major vulvar morph types in different months of the study period in both host species. Further sub-classification of the linguiform female worms from sheep revealed 27.2% linguiform A (LA), 14.8% linguiform B (LB), 5.3% linguiform C (LC) and 2.2% linguiform I (LI) subtypes. Similarly from goats 27.4 % LA, 17.5% LB, and 6.6% LC and 2.3% LI subtypes were identified. Within the linguiform vulvar flap types, the A subtype linguiform showed statistically significant (P<0.05) fluctuation during the months of study period in both host species. Haemonchus species identification based on morphometric parameters on spicules of 1159 adult male Haemonchus from sheep revealed 95.1% H. contortus, 3.5% H. placei and 1.5% H. longistipes, while out of 841 mature male Haemonchus from goats, 96.6% H. contortus, 2.9% H. placei and 0.5 % H. longistipes were identified. The study showed 57.9% H. contortus mono-species, 22.4% H. contortus and H. placei mixed infection, 7.9% H. longistipes and H. Placei mixed infection and the rest 11.8% H. contortus, H. placei and H. longistipes triple infection of the examined sheep. Similarly in goats, 58.2% H. contortus mono-species, 38.2% H. contortus and H. placei mixed infection, 3.6% H. longistipes and H. placei mixed infection and 0% triple Haemonchus species infection of the examined goats was observed. This finding revealed the coexistence and sympatry of two or three Haemonchus species in a single small ruminant host suggesting the occurrence of heterologous hosts for Haemonchus spp. which need to be taken into account in the control strategies against this parasite.Od kolovoza 2003. do ožujka 2004. istraživana je morfologija vulvarnih zalistaka u 3187 ženki oblića roda Haemonchus podrijetlom iz ovaca i 2386 ženki podrijetlom iz koza. Istraživanje je obuhvatilo i 1159 mužjaka podrijetlom iz ovaca i 1285 podrijetlom iz koza. Ustanovljeno je da je 49,5% ženki izdvojenih iz ovaca imalo jezikolike, 28,5% čvorolike i 23% glatke vulvarne zaliske. U 53,8% ženki parazita iz koza ustanovljeni su jezikoliki, 18,5% čvoroliki i 27,6% glatki vulvarni zalisci. Značajne razlike (P<0,05) između tri glavna morfološka tipa vulve pretraženih oblića iz ovaca i koza zabilježene su tijekom različitih mjeseci. Daljnja klasifikacija jezikolikih vulvarnih zalistaka pokazala je da izdvojene ženke iz ovaca posjeduju 27,2% jezikolikih zalistaka suptipa A, 14,8% jezikolikih zalistaka suptipa B, 5,3% jezikolikih zalistaka suptipa C i 2,2% jezikolikih zalistaka suptipa I. Slično je pronađeno i za obliće izdvojene iz koza pa je tako 27,4% ženki imalo jezikolike vulvarne zaliske suptipa A, 17,5% jezikolike vulvarne zaliske suptipa B, 6,6% jezikolike vulvarne zaliske suptipa C i 2,3% jezikolike vulvarne zaliske suptipa I. Unutar jezikolikog tipa, razlike među suptipovima su bile u korelaciji s mjesecom u kojem su istraživane. Morfološke pojedinosti u mužjaka temeljile su se na morfometrijskim svojstvima spikula i to na osnovi iscrpne analize 1159 primjeraka iz ovaca. Na osnovi različite morfologije ustanovljeno je 95,1% oblića vrste Haemonchus contortus, 3,5% vrste Haemonchus placei i 1,5% vrste Haemonchus longistipes. Od ukupno 841 mužjaka iz koza čak 96,6% pripadalo je vrsti Haemonchus contortus, 2,9% vrsti Haemonchus placei i 0,5 % vrsti Haemonchus longistipes. Invazija vrstom Haemonchus contortus dokazana je u 57,9% ovaca. U 22,4% ovaca dokazana je mješovita invazija vrstama Haemonchus contortus i Haemonchus placei, dok je u 7,9% ovaca dokazana mješovita invazija vrstama Haemonchus longistipes i Haemonchus placei. U preostalih 11,8% ovaca dokazana je mješovita invazija trima vrstama i to Haemonchus contortus, Haemonchus placei i Haemonchus longistipes. Slično je ustanovljeno i u koza. Tako je u 58,2% koza bila prisutna samo vrsta Haemonchus contortus. U 38,2% koza dokazana je mješovita invazija vrstama Haemonchus contortus i Heamonchus placei dok je u svega 3,6% koza dokazana mješovita invazija vrstama Haemonchus longistipes i Heamonchus placei. Ni u jedne koze nije dokazana mješovita invazija trima vrstama. Rezultati pokazuju da se u jednog domaćina mogu naći istodobno dvije ili tri vrste roda Heamonchus odnosno da postoji simpatrija što treba uzeti u obzir u kontroli tih parazita

    Genotype x environment interaction and stability analysis of grain yield in QPM hybrid varieties

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    Maize (Zea mays L.) is a major staple cereal widely cultivated in different agro-climatic environments of Ethiopia.Maize productivity in the tropical highland region of the country is known by low average yield mainly due to thelack of high yielding and widely adapted improved cultivars. The objectives of this study were to determine G×Einteraction and yield stability of quality protein maize (QPM) experimental hybrids,to identify ideal genotype withhigh average yield depending on the differential genotypic responses to environment, and to form homogeneousgrouping of environments. The study was conducted at seven environments representing the tropical-highlandsub-humid maize growing agro-ecology of Ethiopia in 2015/2016. Thirty-three QPM hybrids and three-commercial hybridchecks were evaluated using a 4 ×9 alpha lattice design. Yield data was analyzed using AMMI and GGEbi-plot methods. Using AMMI analysis, four promising QPM hybrids designated asG31, G7, G19, G29, and G22were identified based on combined stability and average yield.GGEbi-plot displayed that variety Jibatwas closestto the ideal genotype, can be considered as best hybrid whereas G29, G22 were considered as desirably stable genotypes.GGE bi-plot also displayed Holeta as ideal environment and thus considered useful in discriminating thehybrids and representativeness as suitable environment. The GGE analysis delineated the test environments intothree mega-environments useful for targeted evaluation of genotypes. The result of this study indicated specificallyand widely adapted high yielding stable genotypes and also revealed homogeneous test environments

    Mega-Environment Targeting of Maize Varieties using Ammi and GGE Bi-Plot Analysis in Ethiopia

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    አህፅሮት በቆሎ በኢትዮጵያ  ከሚመረቱ የምግብ ሰብሎች መካከል በምርትና ምርታማነቱ ግንባር ቀደም ስፍራን የያዘ ሰብል ነው፡፡  የሰብሉን ምርታማነት ከሚደግፉ የተለያዩ መንስዔዎች  ውስጥ በዋናነት ከፍተኛውን  ቦታ  የሚይዙት ከጥናትና ምርምር  የተገኙ የተሻሻሉ ዝርያዎች ቢሆኑም ሁሉም ዝርያዎች   በበቆሎ አብቃይ ስነ-ምህዳሮች  ላይ ተዘርተው  በምርታማነታቸው ወጥነት የማያሳዩ መሆናቸው ይታወቃል፡፡ እንደየአካባቢው የአይር ፀባይ፤ የአፈር ዓይነትና የዝናብ መጠን እንዲሁም የመሬት ከባህር ወለል ከፍታ ልዩነት የተነሳ በምርታማነታቸው ለየአካባቢው ተመራጭና ተመራጭ ያልሆኑ ዝርያዎችን መለየት ይቻላል፡፡ በዚህ ምክንያት ለተለያዩ ዝርያዎች ምርታማነት ተስማሚና ወካይ የሆኑ ስፍራዎችን  ለይቶ በማወቅ የትኛው ዝርያ በየትኛው ስፍራ ላይ ቢዘራ  ሁለንተናዊ የአካባቢ ባህሪያትን  ተላብሶ ከፍተኛ ምርት ሊሰጥ ይችላል?  እንዲሁም የትኛቹ ስፍራዎች በአየር ንብረት ተቀራራቢነት በጥቅል ተደምረው አንድ ዝርያ በወጥነት  በሁሉም ስፍራ ተዘርቶ ምርታማ የሚያደርጋቸውን አካባቢዎች ለይቶ ለማወቅ ጥናቱ ተደረገ፡፡ ጥናቱ ለምርት በምርምር የተለቀቁ  19 ዲቃላ የበቆሎ ዝርያዎችን በማካተት  ወይናደጋማና ደጋማ ስፍራዎች ላይ ተዘርተው የተለያዩ መረጃዎችን  በማሰባሰብ እንዲጠናቀር ከተደረገ በኋላ ለጥናቱ ስኬት   ከፍተኛ ትኩረት ተሰጥቶት  ለውሳኔ  እንዲያመች ከየአካባቢው የተሰበሰቡ የዝርያዎቹ ምርት አግባብ ባላቸው ሳይንሳዊ ዘዴዎች እንዲሰሉ ተደረገ፡፡ በስሌቱ መሰረት ከዝርያዎቹ በአማካይ በሔክታር 4.47 ( BH545)  እስከ 7.49  ( BH546) ቶን  ምርት ተመዘገበ፡፡ እንዲሁም በተደረገው ስሌት G14  እና  G1  ተብለው የተለዩ ዝርያዎች ለአብዛኞቹ የጥናቱ ስፍራዎች ተስማሚ  እንደሆኑ  ቢታወቅም  BH546  በሚባል ስያሜ የሚለየው ዝርያ በከፍተኛ ደረጃ ተመራጭ እንደሆነ ለማረጋገጥ ተችለሏል፡፡ በሌላ በኩል E9  በተባለ ምህፃረ-ቃል የሚለይ ስፍራ በአብዛኛው ዝርያዎች  ተመራጭ እንደሆነ ስሌቱ ሲያሳይ ፤ E1  የተባለው ግን ተመራጭ እንዳልሆነ ታውቋል፡፡ ሆኖም ግን 11 የጥናት ስፍራዎች በሶስት ዋና ዋና ፤ እያንዳንዳቸው በዝርዎቹ ምርታማነት የጎላ ልዩነት በሚታይባቸው ወጥ ክፍሎች እንደተከፈሉ የስሌቱ ውጤት ለይቶ አሳይቷል፡፡ በዚህ መሰረት E9 በሚል ስያሜ የሚለየው ስፍራ በብቸኝንት እንደ አንድ ዋና ክፍል የተከፈለ ሲሆን በሁለተኛ  ክፍል ውስጥ  በጥቅል  ዘጠኝ  አካባቦዎች  E1, E2, E3, E5, E6, E7, E8  እና E11  በአንድነት ተደመሩ፤ እንዲሁም  E4 እና  E10 በሶስተኛው ክፍል ውስጥ ተመደቡ፡፡ E3, E5 and, E7 በተባሉ ምህፃረ-ቃል የተለዩ ስፍራዎች ለዝርዎቹ ምርታማነት ወካይና ተመራጭ መሆናቸውን ጥናቱ አሳየ፡፡  ነገር ግን E4, E9 and E10  የተባሉ አካባቢዎች በውስን ስፍራዎች ውስጥ  ምርታማ የሚሆኑ  ዝርያዎችን መለየት የሚችሉ መሆናቸውን ጥናቱ ያረጋግጣል፡፡  በሌላ በኩል E8 and E11 የተባሉ ስፍራዎች የዝርያዎችን ምርታማነትና ተመራጭነት  በጉልህ ለማሳየት ምንም አስተዋፅዖ ያላበረከቱ መሆናቸውን ጥናቱ አሳይቷል፡፡ በመጨረሻም የዚህ ጥናት ውጤት ወጥነት ያላቸው ሶስት ዋና ዋና ስነ-ምህዳራትን ለይቷል፤  ዝርይዎች በምርታማነታቸው   ተመራጭነት  የሚኖራቸውንና  የማይኖራቸውነ  ለይተው የሚያሳዩ ስፍራዎችን  ጠቁሟል እንዲሁም በምርታማነቱና ለአብዛኛው አካባቢዎች  በወጥነት ተስማሚነቱን የሜያሳይ ዝርያ ለይቶ አሳይቷል፡፡ Abstract In multi-location experimental trials, test locations must be selected to properly discriminate between varieties and to be representative of the target regions. The objective of this study were to evaluate test locations in terms of discrimination ability, representativeness, and desirability, and to investigate the presence of mega-environments using AMMI and GGE models and to suggest representative environments for breeding and variety testing purposes.  Among 19 maize varieties tested across 11 environments, mean grain yield ranged between 4.47 t/ha (BH545) to 7.49 t/ha (BH546). Both AMMI and GGE  models identified   G14 and G1 as  desirable hybrids for cultivation   because they combined stability and higher average yield. Nonetheless, as confirmed by GGE analysis BH546 was most closest to the ideal genotype hence, considered as best hybrid.  Environment wise, E9 and E4 were the most stable and unstable test environments, respectively. The 11 test environments fell into three apparent mega-environments.  E9 formed one group by its own, E1, E2, E3, E5, E6, E7, E8 and E11 formed the second group and E4 and E10 formed the third group.  E3, E5 and, E7 were both discriminating and representative therefore are favorable environments for selecting generally adapted genotypes. E4, E9 and E10 were discriminating but non-representative test environments thus are useful for selecting specifically adapted genotypes. E8 and E11 were non-discriminating test environments hence little information about the genotypes. The results of this study helped to identify mega-environments, also representativeness and discriminating power of test environments better visualized with the GGE bi-plot model

    Co-occurrence of hypertension and type 2 diabetes: prevalence and associated factors among Haramaya University employees in Eastern Ethiopia

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    BackgroundBoth hypertension (HTN) and diabetes are public health concerns in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan African countries. The co-occurrence of HTN and diabetes is associated with an increased risk of mortality, morbidity, and reduced productivity in the working force. In Ethiopia, there is limited evidence on the co-occurrence of HTN and type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the co-occurrence of HTN and T2DM and their associated factors among Haramaya University employees in Eastern Ethiopia.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1,200 employees at Haramaya University using a simple random sampling technique from December 2018 to February 2019. Demographic and behavioral factors were collected on a semi-structured questionnaire, followed by measurement of anthropometry and blood pressure. Blood glucose and lipid profile measurements were performed by collecting 6 ml of venous blood samples after 8 h of overnight fasting. Data were entered into EpiData 3.1 version and analyzed using Stata 16 software. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regressions were applied to observe the association between independent variables with co-occurrence of HPN and T2DM using odds ratio, 95% confidence interval (CI), and p-values of ≤ 0.05 were considered statistically significant.ResultsThe prevalence of HTN and T2DM was 27.3 and 7.4%, respectively. The co-occurrence of HTN and T2DM was 3.8%. The study found that being older (AOR = 3.97; 95 % CI: 1.80–8.74), khat chewing (AOR = 2.76; 95 % CI: 1.23–6.18), body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2 (AOR = 5.11; 95 % CI: 2.06–12.66), and sedentary behavior ≥8 h per day (AOR = 6.44; 95 % CI: 2.89–14.34) were statistically associated with co-occurrence of HTN and T2DM. On the other hand, consuming fruits and vegetables (AOR = 0.10; 95 % CI: 0.04–0.22) and a higher level of education (AOR = 0.39; 95% CI: 0.17–0.89) were negatively statistically associated with the co-occurrence of HTN and T2DM.ConclusionThe co-occurrence of HTN and T2DM was prevalent among the study participants. This may create a substantial load on the healthcare system as an end result of increased demand for healthcare services. Therefore, rigorous efforts are needed to develop strategies for screening employees to tackle the alarming increase in HTN and T2DM in university employees

    Inter-connection between land use/land cover change and herders’/farmers’ livestock feed resource management strategies: a case study from three Ethiopian eco-environments

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    AbstractWe assessed land use/land cover changes from remotely sensed satellite imagery and compared this with community perceptions on availability/use of livestock feed resources and feed deficit management strategies since the 1973s in three districts representing the pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed crop-livestock eco-environments of Ethiopia. We found that land use/land cover changes are proceeding in all eco-environments and that transitions are from grasslands, and forest lands to bush/shrub lands and crop lands in the pastoral site (Liben), from bush/shrub lands and grasslands to crop lands in agro-pastoral site (Mieso) and from bush/shrub lands, forest lands and grasslands to crop lands in the mixed crop-livestock site (Tiyo). The changes significantly affected livestock feed resources and feed deficit management strategies available to households. Over the last 30–40 years, grazing resources available to livestock keepers have been declining with resultant increase in the contribution of crop residues and other feeds from crop lands (weeds and crop thinnings) as compared to feeds from grasslands. The feed deficit management strategies of households are also changing significantly from mobility to herd management and feed conservation in the pastoral areas; from mobility to feed conservation and purchasing of feed in the agro-pastoral areas and from transhumance to feed conservation and purchase of feed in the mixed crop-livestock areas. Hence feed resources and their availability vary with time and eco-environments indicating the need for the development of eco-environment/site specific feed management strategies in order to support productive stock in the study areas and similar eco-environments

    Factors that transformed maize productivity in Ethiopia

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    Published online: 26 July 2015Maize became increasingly important in the food security of Ethiopia following the major drought and famine that occurred in 1984. More than 9 million smallholder house- holds, more than for any other crop in the country, grow maize in Ethiopia at present. Ethiopia has doubled its maize produc- tivity and production in less than two decades. The yield, currently estimated at >3 metric tons/ha, is the second highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa; yield gains for Ethiopia grew at an annual rate of 68 kg/ha between 1990 and 2013, only second to South Africa and greater than Mexico, China, or India. The maize area covered by improved varieties in Ethiopia grew from 14 % in 2004 to 40 % in 2013, and the application rate of mineral fertilizers from 16 to 34 kg/ ha during the same period. Ethiopia ’ s extension worker to farmer ratio is 1:476, compared to 1:1000 for Kenya, 1:1603 for Malawi and 1:2500 for Tanzania. Increased use of im- proved maize varieties and mineral fertilizers, coupled with increased extension services and the absence of devastating droughts are the key factors promoting the accelerated growth in maize productivity in Ethiopia. Ethiopia took a homegrown solutions approach to the research and development of its maize and other commodities. The lesson from Ethiopia ’ s experience with maize is that sustained investment in agricul- tural research and development and policy support by the national government are crucial for continued growth of agricultur

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

    Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

    Get PDF
    Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation
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