Impact of Lake Beseka on the water quality of Awash River, Ethiopia

Untreated discharge from industries, domestic wastes, flower farms, and irrigation runoff are among the major sources of pollution in Awash River. Increasing of unregulated lake water discharge is another indication of water degradation in the AR. The objectives of the study were to better understand the discharge of Lake Beseka (LB) and its impact downstream on the water quality of Awash River (AR). 480 samples were collected from 2008 to 2017 and analyzed for more than 20 parameters e.g.; TDS, EC, pH, alkalinity, chloride, bicarbonates, carbonates at four sampling stations. Results showed that the water quality of the AR downstream of the Lake has shown a decreasing trend from 2013 to 2017. The quality of the river water deteriorating due to the release of unregulated Lake water into the AR. The annual mixing ratios of the Lake water with the AR were 6.67%, 13.98%, 45.83%, 27.67%, and 18.73% from 2013 to 2017. Thus, it is essential to install and implement adequate and affordable technologies in order to regulate and quantify amount of flow into the AR from the Lake. If the Lake water continuously drains at its current rate, it would be difficult to control its water quality deteriorating effect and will cause environmental disasters in water and soil salinity problematic downstream of the lake human habitats and the Amibera Irrigation Farm

Demystifying heavy metals and physicochemical characteristics of groundwater in a volcano-tectonic region of Middle Awash, Ethiopia, for multipurpose use

This study investigates the concentrations of physicochemical and heavy metal contaminants in the groundwater of the Middle Awash Basin, Ethiopia, to inform targeted water management strategies. A total of 32 groundwater samples were collected from 16 stations via piezometers and boreholes at the end of both the dry (June 2021) and wet (October 2021) seasons. Utilizing Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS), Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS), and in situ metering, 22 physicochemical and 24 heavy metal parameters were analyzed. The data revealed significant levels of contamination; notably, sample GW11 had extraordinarily high concentrations of total dissolved solids (10,826 mg/L), strontium (908 µg/L), molybdenum (802.4 µg/L), zinc (6060 µg/L), and electrical conductivity (15,645 µS/cm), while GW12 exhibited elevated levels of aluminum (2615 µg/L), zinc (4446 µg/L), and arsenic (117.2 µg/L). Contaminants such as arsenic, vanadium, gallium, lithium, rubidium, chromium, manganese, copper, and zinc were found enriched in groundwater near Lake Beseka, majorly influenced by geogenic activities, volcanic ash, and weathering of rocks. The sampled waters might be affected by human activities including agricultural runoff from sugarcane plantations, sugar factories wastewaters, and agro-industry activities (decade’s activities). Over half of the groundwater sources were unsuitable for drinking, posing significant health risks to local communities that rely heavily on these sources due to limited access to clean surface water. The findings emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive groundwater management and remediation plans in the Middle Awash region to ensure safe and sustainable water use, particularly addressing the variation in contamination levels influenced by Lake Beseka. These measures are critical to protect public health and support local development in the face of ongoing environmental and anthropogenic pressures

Evaluating the effects of geochemical and anthropogenic factors on the concentration and treatability of heavy metals in Awash River and Lake Beseka, Ethiopia: arsenic and molybdenum issues

In the Awash River basin (Ethiopia), massive urbanization and industrialization, driven by rapid development and human settlement, are detrimental to the environment and human health as pollutants such as heavy metals (HMs) find their way into water bodies without proper treatment. The purpose of this study was to assess the HMs content and pollution sources within the basin. In this context, a total of 205 samples were collected from 21 surface water sampling stations. Heavy metal concentrations were measured using the Perkin Elmer NexION 350 ICP-MS with inductively coupled plasma. Findings demonstrate that high levels of HMs, such as Al, Mn, Mo, As, V, Fe, and Ba were exhibited with the value of 1257 μg/L, 626.8 μg/L, 116.7 μg/L, 61.2 μg/L, 100.5 μg/L, 1082.7 μg/L, and 211.7 μg/L, respectively. Among 20 HMs analyzed, 20% of the parameters within the study area were above the WHO limit for drinking water; Al (157 μg/L), V (100.5 μg/L), Fe (1082.7 μg/L), Mn (626.8 μg/L), and Mo (103.8 μg/L) were exhibited at sites along the river system. Likewise, 57% of water samples showed high values of As at many stations down the river systems. In particular, high HM concentrations seen in the upper Awash are primarily controlled by anthropogenic activities such as untreated industrial, agricultural, and domestic discharges, while the high HM concentrations in the middle Awash samples were likely due to the influence from the Lake Beseka that has high HM concentrations due to geological process. In conclusion, securing potable water for the rapidly increasing population in Addis Ababa and in the watersheds of Awash is unsafe to sustain the environment and the human health

Assessing heavy metal contamination using biosensors and a multi-branch integrated catchment model in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Metal pollution in rivers from untreated industrial and domestic wastewater is a major issue in economically developing countries worldwide. The Awash River Basin in Ethiopia is one of those rivers that faces rising heavy metal concentrations due to poor wastewater management and loose law enforcement controlling effluent discharge into rivers. In this study, surface water and wastewater samples were collected within the Awash River Basin, with metals analysis using ICP-MS techniques. Acute toxicity of water was determined using new molecular biosensor technology based on engineered luminescent bacteria. A multi-branch Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) for metals, including Arsenic, Cadmium, Chromium, Copper, Lead, Manganese, and Zinc was applied to the Awash River Basin to simulate the impact of tannery discharge on the river water pollution levels and to evaluate a set of treatment scenarios for pollution control. Results show that all samples from tannery wastewater have high levels of metals, such as Chromium and Manganese with high levels of toxicities. River water samples from upper Awash near Addis Ababa showed elevated concentrations of heavy metals due to the untreated wastewater from the dense population and a large number of industries in that area. The modeling scenarios indicate that improved wastewater management will reduce the metal concentration significantly. With a 50% reduction in effluent concentrations, the mean concentrations of heavy metals (such as Chromium) over two years would be able to reach 20 to 50% reduction in river water samples

Magnitude of preterm birth and associated factors Among mothers who gave birth in Debre Berhan comprehensive specialized hospital

BackgroundPremature deliveries are a major public health issue, with high health, economic, and productivity costs associated with lengthy hospitalizations in neonatal critical care units. The goal of this study was to determine the number of premature births in Ethiopia's Debre Berhan Comprehensive Specialized Hospital and the factors that influence them.MethodsThe Debre Berhan Comprehensive Specialized Hospital conducted an institution-based cross-sectional study between February and April 2020. A total of 325 study participants were selected using systematic random sampling. Face-to-face interviews using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire were used to collect data. For data entry and analysis, Epi data version 3.1 and SPSS version 20 were used. At a P-value of 0.2, bivariate logistic regression analysis was used to categorize candidate variables to the next level, and variables in multivariate logistic regression models with a p-value of 0.05 were considered statistically significant.ResultPreterm births accounted for 16.1% of all births at Debre Berhan Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Cesarean section [AOR = 2.412; 95% CI (1.154, 5.0370)], twin pregnancy [AOR = 3.524; 95% CI (1.114, 11.150)], and maternal anemia during pregnancy [AOR = 3.124; 95% CI (1.417, 6.887)] were statistically significant associations with the outcome variable in the final logistic regression model.Conclusion and recommendationPreterm birth was found to be greater in the study area than in the Global Action Report for Sub-Saharan Africa and a few other countries. Efforts should be made to prevent maternal health issues that lead to caesarean section, and all pregnant mothers should be supplemented with iron and folic acid as soon as feasible. This study suggests that there is still a gap in the field in terms of health service intervention

Dyslipidemia and serum cystatin C levels as biomarker of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BackgroundDiabetic nephropathy is a leading cause of end-stage renal disease. The diagnostic markers of nephropathy, including the presence of albuminuria and/or a reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate, are not clinically ideal, and most of them are raised after a significant reduction in renal function. Therefore, it is crucial to seek more sensitive and non-invasive biomarkers for the diagnosis of diabetic nephropathy.Objective of the studyThis study aimed to investigate the serum cystatin C levels and dyslipidemia for the detection of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.MethodologyA hospital-based comparative cross-sectional study was conducted from December 2021 to August 2022 in Tikur, Anbessa specialized teaching hospital with a sample size of 140 patients with type2 diabetes mellitus. Socio-demographic data was collected using a structured questionnaire, and 5 mL of blood was collected from each participant following overnight fasting for biochemical analyses.ResultsIn type 2 diabetes patients with nephropathy, we found significant lipoprotein abnormalities and an increase in serum cystatin C (P < 0.001) compared to those without nephropathy. Serum cystatin C, systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, triglyceride, low density lipoprotein, very low-density lipoprotein, high density lipoprotein, and duration of diabetes were identified as being significantly associated with diabetic nephropathy (P < 0.05) in multivariable logistic regression analysis. The mean values of total cholesterol levels, triglyceride levels, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were also found to be significantly higher (P < 0.05) in females as compared to male type-2 diabetic patients. The fasting blood glucose levels and lipid profiles of the participants were found to be significantly associated with serum cystatin C levels.ConclusionThe present study found significant serum cystatin C and lipoprotein abnormalities in T2DM patients with diabetic nephropathy when compared with those without diabetic nephropathy, and these lipoprotein abnormalities were significantly associated with serum cystatin C levels

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions