Analysis of spatiotemporal variation in the snow cover in Western Hindukush-Himalaya region

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products were used in this study which covers a period of 2000–2014. Comparison of the SCA derived from MODIS and Landsat NDSI showed a significant correlation, the resultant coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.85. For analyzing the trend in the SCA, the Mann-Kendall test was applied; the results show an increasing non-significant trend in the mean annual SCA with a Sen’s slope value of +16.99 (km2/year), and a significant increasing trend in the winter SCA was identified. The annual mean SCA was 8.92 km2 and 564 km2 for elevation ranges of 5001–5694 m and 4001–4500 m respectively. The spatial extent of snow cover was maximum in 70°–78.3° slope class and minimum in 30°–40° slope class. The results highlight the MODIS snow cover products’ capability to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of snow cover in complex mountainous watersheds

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Snow Distribution and River Flows in a Snow-Dominated Mountainous Watershed in the Western Hindukush–Himalaya, Afghanistan

Projected snow cover and river flows are important for planning and managing water resources in snow-dominated basins of the Himalayas. To quantify the impacts of climate change in the data scarce Panjshir River basin of Afghanistan, this study simulated present and future snow cover area (SCA) distributions with the snow model (SM), and river flows with the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). The SRM used the degree-day factor and precipitation gradient optimized by the SM to simulate river flows. Temperature and precipitation data from eight kinds of general circulation models (GCMs) were used for bias correction. The SM and SRM were first calibrated and validated using 2009–2015 data, and then bias-corrected future climate data were input to the models to simulate future SCA and river flows. Under both the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, the annual average SCA and river flow were projected to decrease in the mid and late 21st century, although seasonal increases were simulated in some instances. Uncertainty ranges in projected SCA and river flow under RCP 8.5 were small in the mid 21st century and large in the late 21st century. Therefore, climate change is projected to alter high-altitude stream sources in the Hindukush mountains and reduce the amount of water reaching downstream areas