Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth

This paper re-examines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1-3 percent for industrial countries and 11-12 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications. Copyright 2001, International Monetary Fund

Time Series Analysis of Export Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis

The paper estimates export demand elasticities for a large number of developing and industrial countries, using time-series techniques that account for the nonstationarity in the data. The average long-run price and income elasticities are found to be approximately -1 and 1.5, respectively. Thus, exports do react to both the trade partners' income and to relative prices. Africa faces the lowest income elasticities for its exports, while Asia has both the highest income and price elasticities. The price and income elasticity estimates have good statistical properties. Copyright 1999, International Monetary Fund

External Shocks and Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy

This paper analyzes the borrowing behavior of a small open economy of a Less Developed Country (LDC) that relies heavily on imports for its capital formation and faces an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, in an environment where decision makers face uncertainty about the longevity of external shocks. First, a dynamic general equilibrium model is developed which replicates fairly well the business cycle properties of the LDC data. Second, it is shown that uncertainty concerning the longevity of shocks (a relevant type of uncertainty, especially for LDCs) generates forecast errors that are autocorrelated in a way that is similar to Bayesian learning in the "peso problem." This autocorrelated forecast errors can generate substantial debt accumulation. Third, it is shown that the assumption of an upward sloping supply function of foreign loans, which is a more realistic assumption for LDCs than the usual perfectly elastic one, offers an alternative to the Uzawa-type utility function for the analysis of asset accumulation in the small open economy framework. (Copyright: Elsevier)Debt accumulation; Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model; External shocks; Incomplete information; Less Developed Economies

How Significant are Departures from Certainty Equivalence? Some Analytical and Empirical Results

The feedback and the autoregressive closed form solution of the consumption function, with the income process allowed to follow a general ARIMA stochastic process, for the quadratic, exponential and Weil's hybrid exponential-isoelastic utility functions are compared. For the exponential and Weil's utility functions, the consumption function can be decomposed into a certainty equivalent term plus a precautionary saving term. The three utility functions behave similarly when the consumer's subjective rate of time preference equals the market interest rate. Deviations from certainty equilvalence become apparent only when consumers are allowed to have a different degree of patience than the market. (Copyright: Elsevier)