The Effect of Using Flipped Class on Teaching Reading Comprehension at Cihan University

Reading comprehension is one of the important skills of language learning. It is believed that teaching with flipped class is more effective and comes out with more positive outcomes than the traditional class teaching. Thus, this study aims to explore the effect of flipped class on improving reading comprehension skills for Kurdish and Arabic EFL at Cihan University-Erbil. The main question of this study is to figure out whether implementing flipped class on EFL will improve their reading comprehension skills? Will it develop the students reading abilities including both levels ‘elementary and intermediate’? In addition, to which level of students is more applicable? According the mentioned questions, it is presupposed that flipped class has more positive results in teaching reading Comprehension skills than the tradition class. This is due to the fact that the student will have access to online facilities and internet to gain further information about the topic before the class. Thus, it is assumed that it will improve Kurdish and Arabic EFL reading comprehension skills including both levels ‘Elementary and intermediate’. However, it is presumed that the flipped class will have a greater impact on intermediate level than on Elementary level

Validation of Lexical Frequency Profiles As a Measure of Lexical Richness in Written Discourse

Technological developments and their utilities in various areas including education have offered great advantages for man. One of the greatest achievements in this trend has been the innovation in computer software like Lexical Frequency Profiles (LFP) and its pedagogical implications either in teaching or measurement. To take the maximum advantages, this study seeks to validate the LFP as a measure of lexical richness in written discourse of Iranian EFL Learners. 50 students majoring in English Translation participated in this study; each of them was encouraged to develop two compositions on general topics in order to establish VocabProfile indexes. To estimate the reliability of the LFP, the VocabProfile indexes of two writings were correlated, but for the validity purpose, first, a productive version of Vocabulary Levels Test (VLT) was administered and second, the students’ compositions were fed into P_Lex software to elicit P_Lex index. After that, VocabProfile indexes were correlated with VLT scores and P_Lex index separately. The findings of the study revealed that students’ VocabProfile indexes written on two different topics correlated significantly with each other. Because of such a significant correlation coefficients, and the LFP indexes are related to VLT active test and P_Lex index, it is conservatively safe to claim that VocabProfile indexes are to some extent reliable and valid measurement instruments but not strong enough to be used as a stand- alone measure for the assessment of lexical richness. Pedagogically speaking, the LPF is suggested as a relatively reliable and valid measure to be used along with other dependable devices in measuring lexical richness in discourses of various types

Advanced Low-Temperature Fluid Bed Sorbents

This paper discusses the results obtained in an ongoing study geared towards developing advanced mixed-metal oxide sorbents for desulfurization of coal-derived fuel gases in the temperature range of 350 to 550{degrees}C. The paper focuses on the study related to the development of durable sorbents suitable for fluidized-bed application and addresses thermodynamic considerations, sulfidation kinetics, regenerability, and the physical and chemical characteristics of a number of novel sorbents

Psychometrics properties of the Iranian version of fertility quality of life tool: a cross- sectional study

Background: Clinical measurement of quality of life for assessing reproductive problems should be considered as a standard investigation at the initial and continuing medical consultations with infertile people. Objective: The purpose of this study was comprehensive testing the psychometric properties of the Iranian version of fertility quality of life (FertiQol) as its use could be considerable due to the prevalence of infertility in Iran and the importance of evaluation of QoL in patients with infertility. Method and material: This was a psychometric properties study of 300 women referred to infertility clinic, Hormozgan, Iran. After linguistic validation of the Iranian version of MPCOSQ, a semi-structured interview was conducted to assess face validity. Consequently exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were performed to indicate the scale constructs. Discriminant validity was assessed using the known groups comparison. Convergent validity was evaluated by assessing the correlation between similar content on the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and FertiQol. In addition, reliability analysis was carried out with internal consistency. Results: The reliability of the Iranian version of the FertiQol questionnaire was satisfactory in all dimensions (Cronbach’s alpha ranging from 0.77 to 0.83 ). Six factors (emotional, mind/body, relational, social, environmental and tolerability) were extracted from the results of EFA with factor loading of the more than 0.3. Discrimination validity showed that FertiQol can differentiate between female patients with differing duration of infertility and number of children; this indicates favorable discrimination validity. Moreover, the results of convergent validity showed a favorable correlation between the related dimensions of 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (correlation ranging from 0.43 to 0.68 ), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale(correlation ranging from 0.47 to 0.52 ) and FertiQol. Conclusion: The Iranian version of FertiQol is valid and reliable for assessing infertility problems and the effects of treatment on quality of life of infertile patients referred for diagnosis and treatment at an Iranian infertility clinic. The clinical use of this measure is recommended for Iranian infertility clinics

Microsphere-assisted super-resolved Mirau digital holographic microscopy for cell identification

In this paper, we use a glass microsphere incorporated into a digital holographic microscope to increase the effective resolution of the system, aiming at precise cell identification. A Mirau interferometric objective is employed in the experiments, which can be used for a common-path digital holographic microscopy (DHMicroscopy) arrangement. High-magnification Mirau objectives are expensive and suffer from low working distances, yet the commonly used low-magnification Mirau objectives do not have high lateral resolutions. We show that by placing a glass microsphere within the working distance of a low-magnification Mirau objective, its effective numerical aperture can be increased, leading to super-resolved three-dimensional images. The improvement in the lateral resolution depends on the size and vertical position of microsphere, and by varying these parameters, the lateral resolution and magnification may be adjusted. We used the information from the super-resolution DHMicroscopy to identify thalassemia minor red blood cells (tRBCs). Identification is done by comparing the volumetric measurements with those of healthy RBCs. Our results show that microsphere-assisted super-resolved Mirau DHMicroscopy, being common path and off-axis in nature, has the potential to serve as a benchtop device for cell identification and biomedical measurements. © 2017 Optical Society of America

RNA-seq of newly diagnosed patients in the PADIMAC study leads to a bortezomib/lenalidomide decision signature.

Improving outcomes in multiple myeloma will involve not only development of new therapies but also better use of existing treatments. We performed RNA sequencing on samples from newly diagnosed patients enrolled in the phase 2 PADIMAC (Bortezomib, Adriamycin, and Dexamethasone Therapy for Previously Untreated Patients with Multiple Myeloma: Impact of Minimal Residual Disease in Patients with Deferred ASCT) study. Using synthetic annealing and the large margin nearest neighbor algorithm, we developed and trained a 7-gene signature to predict treatment outcome. We tested the signature in independent cohorts treated with bortezomib- and lenalidomide-based therapies. The signature was capable of distinguishing which patients would respond better to which regimen. In the CoMMpass data set, patients who were treated correctly according to the signature had a better progression-free survival (median, 20.1 months vs not reached; hazard ratio [HR], 0.40; confidence interval [CI], 0.23-0.72; P = .0012) and overall survival (median, 30.7 months vs not reached; HR, 0.41; CI, 0.21-0.80; P = .0049) than those who were not. Indeed, the outcome for these correctly treated patients was noninferior to that for those treated with combined bortezomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasone, arguably the standard of care in the United States but not widely available elsewhere. The small size of the signature will facilitate clinical translation, thus enabling more targeted drug regimens to be delivered in myeloma.Wellcome Trust, Bloodwise, Cancer Research UK

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation.<br/

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100:a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.FundingBill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation