Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study

Objective: To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Design: International multicentre prospective study. Setting: Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania. Participants: 3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Main outcome measures: Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined. Results: The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay. Conclusions: The Glasgow Blatchford score has high accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16235737

Lazy Luna: extendible software for multilevel reader comparison in cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance (CMR) imaging is a growing field with increasing diagnostic utility in clinical routine. Quantitative diagnostic parameters are typically calculated based on contours or points provided by readers, e.g. natural intelligences (NI) such as clinicians or researchers, and artificial intelligences (AI). As clinical applications multiply, evaluating the precision and reproducibility of quantitative parameters becomes increasingly important. Although segmentation challenges for AIs and guidelines for clinicians provide quality assessments and regulation, the methods ought to be combined and streamlined for clinical applications. The goal of the developed software, Lazy Luna (LL), is to offer a flexible evaluation tool that is readily extendible to new sequences and scientific endeavours. METHODS: An interface was designed for LL, which allows for comparing annotated CMR images. Geometric objects ensure precise calculations of metric values and clinical results regardless of whether annotations originate from AIs or NIs. A graphical user interface (GUI) is provided to make the software available to non-programmers. The GUI allows for an interactive inspection of image datasets as well as implementing tracing procedures, which follow statistical reader differences in clinical results to their origins in individual image contours. The backend software builds on a set of meta-classes, which can be extended to new imaging sequences and clinical parameters. Following an agile development procedure with clinical feedback allows for a quick implementation of new classes, figures and tables for evaluation. RESULTS: Two application cases present LL's extendibility to clinical evaluation and AI development contexts. The first concerns T1 parametric mapping images segmented by two expert readers. Quantitative result differences are traced to reveal typical segmentation dissimilarities from which these differences originate. The meta-classes are extended to this new application scenario. The second applies to the open source Late Gadolinium Enhancement (LGE) quantification challenge for AI developers “Emidec”, which illustrates LL's usability as open source software. CONCLUSION: The presented software Lazy Luna allows for an automated multilevel comparison of readers as well as identifying qualitative reasons for statistical reader differences. The open source software LL can be extended to new application cases in the future

Introduction of Lazy Luna an automatic software-driven multilevel comparison of ventricular function quantification in cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging is the gold standard for cardiac function assessment. Quantification of clinical results (CR) requires precise segmentation. Clinicians statistically compare CRs to ensure reproducibility. Convolutional Neural Network developers compare their results via metrics. Aim: Introducing software capable of automatic multilevel comparison. A multilevel analysis covering segmentations and CRs builds on a generic software backend. Metrics and CRs are calculated with geometric accuracy. Segmentations and CRs are connected to track errors and their effects. An interactive GUI makes the software accessible to different users. The software's multilevel comparison was tested on a use case based on cardiac function assessment. The software shows good reader agreement in CRs and segmentation metrics (Dice > 90%). Decomposing differences by cardiac position revealed excellent agreement in midventricular slices: > 90% but poorer segmentations in apical (> 71%) and basal slices (> 74%). Further decomposition by contour type locates the largest millilitre differences in the basal right cavity (> 3 ml). Visual inspection shows these differences being caused by different basal slice choices. The software illuminated reader differences on several levels. Producing spreadsheets and figures concerning metric values and CR differences was automated. A multilevel reader comparison is feasible and extendable to other cardiac structures in the future

Impact of job insecurity on sexual desire: an exploratory analysis.

To explore, for the first time, the impact of job insecurity on sexual desire. Cross-sectional analysis of a nationally representative sample of 7247 individuals aged 20-64 years working as full or part-time employees in Switzerland. The logistic regression analysis showed that workers aged 20-49 years perceiving high levels of job insecurity are exposed to a significantly higher risk of decrease of sexual desire compared to the reference group. The risk is 53% higher among men (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.16-2.01) and 47% for woman (OR 1.47; 1.13-1.91). No increased risk was found for employees aged 50-64 years old. An increasing fear of job loss is associated with a deterioration in sexual desire. These first preliminary findings should promote further epidemiological and clinical prospective studies on the impact of job insecurity on intimate relationships and sexual dysfunction

Conclusion: The Contestation of Expertise in the EU

Bringing together the main insights of the book, this concluding chapter restates the relevance of understanding contestation of expertise in the EU. The chapter shows the main patterns and the consequences of contestation of expertise drawing from the different contributions in this book. The chapter is also forward looking by presenting how we need to re-think the role of expertise in the ‘post-factual’ world. We present four scenarios for future developments and acknowledge that regardless of which direction the EU is headed in the longer term, at present the European Union will have to adapt to the reality of a system in which scientific expertise remains both essential and contested in its contribution to public policy-making. What remains certain is that the contestation of expertise will continue to be a feature of European Union politics and jurisprudence in the 2020s

Introduction: The Contestation of Expertise in the European Union

3sìnonenoneVigjilenca Abazi; Johan Adriaensen; Thomas ChristiansenAbazi, Vigjilenca; Adriaensen, Johan; Christiansen, Thoma

Monitoring and predictive maintenance: modelling and analyse of fault latency

International audienc

Radical cascade processes leading to fused- and spiro-bicyclic ring systems

The course of the reaction of 2-propargyl-2-(2-carboethoxyvinyl)cyclohexanone with tributyltin hydride and AIBN either neat or in benzene solution is discussed. The structure of the spirocyclic major product is shown to differ from that previously suggested and plausible reaction pathways are presented to account for the outcome. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd