Economic resources and single motherhood: incidence and resolution of premarital childbearing among young American women

This paper analyses the impact of economic resources on the likelihood of out-of-wedlock childbearing and the consequent family formation behaviour after such an event. The analysis is undertaken by specifying a multi-state, multi-spell duration model, with dynamic interactions. The results suggest that the economic resources which young women face are indeed important, not only as determinants of premarital childbearing, but also for how out-of-wedlock childbearing is resolved. Simulations indicates that welfare generosity and family resources are the most important determinants, whereas personal earnings potential plays a less important role. (AUTHORS)

Changing pattern of fertility behaviour in a time of social and economic change: evidence from Mongolia

In 1989, after a long period of socialist rule, Mongolia initiated a democratisation process of its political system together with a transition towards a market economy. This paper examines how changes in socio-economic conditions in Mongolia have affected fertility patterns in recent times. It also provides an outline of changes that have taken place in terms of pro-natalist policies. The study is based on data from the Reproductive Health Survey of Mongolia (RHSM) conducted in 1998. In terms of economic activity we find an inverse, although weak, relationship for older cohorts. This is in strong contrast to the young cohort, for which the economic downturn has had a strongly depressing effect on fertility. We also find important effects of micro level variables, including education and housing. Our findings suggest that the fertility decline observed for the older cohorts are very much part of the first demographic transition, in which the collapse of pro-natalist policies has been influential. (AUTHOR)

Youth poverty and transition to adulthood in Europe

There is an increasing amount of research focussing on the transition to adulthood, a stage of the life cycle where young people face demanding life decisions, including completion of education, finding stable employment, and establishing their household and family. Whereas there is a well-developed literature on poverty among households in general, very little research has focused on poverty among young adults. Using the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) we provide a detailed description of youth poverty in Europe. Across the European Union youth poverty varies greatly, being higher in Southern European countries, as well as in the ‘liberal’ regimes of the UK and Ireland. However, there are also large variations in the extent of youth poverty within countries, between what we might term 'younger youth' (aged 16-19) and 'older youth' aged (25-29). In the UK, poverty rates among 'younger youth' are much higher than among 'older youth', suggesting that poverty among young people is closely associated with child poverty. In the Scandinavian countries, poverty peaks dramatically in the early twenties, indicating that in these countries, poverty is associated with leaving home

Women´s wages and childbearing decisions: Evidence from Italy

During the early 1990s, Italy became one of the first countries to reach lowest-low fertility. This was also a period in which women´s education and labour force participation increased. We analyze the role of women´s (potential) wages on their fertility decisions by making use of two different surveys. This enables us to apply discrete-time duration models. For first births, we find evidence of non-proportional hazards and of some "recuperation" effects; for second and third births, instead, wage exhibits small intensity although there is a clear division between Northern and Southern Italian regions.childbearing decisions, discrete time duration models, lowest-low fertility

Albania: Trends and patterns, proximate determinants and policies of fertility change

For a very long time, Albania has had one of the highest levels of fertility in Europe: in 2002 the total fertility rate of 2.2 children per woman was the highest in Europe. Although this current level is high, the country has experienced a rapid fertility reduction during the last 50 years: a TFR decline from 7 to 2.2. This reduction has occurred in the absence of modern contraception and abortion, which indicates the significance of investments in the social agenda during the communist regime that produced policies with indirect effects on fertility. Most significant of these were policies focused on education, in particular on female education. Social and demographic settings for a further fertility reduction in Albania have been present since 1990. Contraception and abortion have been legalized and available since the early 1990s, but knowledge of their use is still not widespread in the country, largely due to the interplay between traditional and modern norms of Albanian society. This chapter points out that future fertility levels will be determined not only by new policies that might be introduced, but predominantly by the balance of this interplay.Albania, childbearing, Europe, fertility, fertility change

Modelling poverty by not modelling poverty: An application of a simultaneous hazards approach to the UK

We pursue an economic approach to analysing poverty. This requires a focus on the variables that individuals can influence, such as forming or dissolving a union or having children. We argue that this indirect approach to modelling poverty is the right way to bring economic tools to bear on the issue. In our implementation of this approach, we focus on endogenous demographic and employment transitions as the driving forces behind changes in poverty. We construct a dataset covering event histories over a long window and estimate five simultaneous hazards with unrestricted correlated heterogeneity. The model fits the demographic and poverty data reasonably well. We investigate the important parameters and processes for differences in individuals' poverty likelihood. Employment, and particularly employment of disadvantaged women with children, is important.poverty dynamics, poverty transitions, simultaneous hazards

The role of income in marriage and divorce transitions among young Americans

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Does Italy need family income taxation?

The possible implications of using the family as opposed to the individual as the unit of taxation are not clear. This applies both to work incentives and distributional outcomes. In this paper we evaluate the effects of a hypothetical reform for Italian income taxation with respect to labour supply. In particular, we analyze potential labour supply effects by considering a shift from the current system of individual taxation to a system of family taxation similar to the French family splitting approach. The analysis is based on an econometric model of labour supply that is embedded in a tax–benefit model. Using data from the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth, our simulation results show relatively small effects on the total labour supply but a decrease in female labour supply.tax benefit system, fiscal reform, labour supply, microsimulation

Cohabitation, marriage, first birth: the interrelationship of family formation events in Spain

In this paper we investigate (1) the mutual causal relationship between first union formation and first childbirth, and (2) the existence of constant common determinants of these two events. It is argued that (unmeasured) common factors reflect differentials among the population in value orientations and in norms about the sequencing of events. We apply event history techniques to retrospective survey data for Spain, allowing for the correlation between unobserved heterogeneity components belonging to each process. Our findings confirm the strong interrelationship between union formation and first birth. After controlling for these common factors, we find that the risk of conception increases immediately at marriage, and it continues to be high during the following four years. Entry into cohabitation produces much smaller increases in the relative risk. The effect of the conception of the first child on union formation is especially strong during pregnancy, but declines sharply after delivery.

State Dependence and Causal Feedback of Poverty and Fertility in Ethiopia

The paper implements simultaneous random effect models as a means to analyse causality issues related to poverty and fertility in Ethiopia, a country which is plagued by high and persistent poverty and very high fertility rates in rural areas. Using longitudinal data from both urban and rural areas of Ethiopia, we analyse the relationship between childbearing and poverty. In addition to identifying state dependence in poverty and fertility, we investigate to what extent fertility act as a feedback mechanism leading to higher poverty and vice versa. We find that poverty itself has little effect on fertility, whereas there is evidence of state dependence in poverty and important feedback from fertility on future poverty. Not unexpected, we find substantial differences between rural and urban areas.