Leading strategies in competitive on-line prediction

We start from a simple asymptotic result for the problem of on-line regression with the quadratic loss function: the class of continuous limited-memory prediction strategies admits a "leading prediction strategy", which not only asymptotically performs at least as well as any continuous limited-memory strategy but also satisfies the property that the excess loss of any continuous limited-memory strategy is determined by how closely it imitates the leading strategy. More specifically, for any class of prediction strategies constituting a reproducing kernel Hilbert space we construct a leading strategy, in the sense that the loss of any prediction strategy whose norm is not too large is determined by how closely it imitates the leading strategy. This result is extended to the loss functions given by Bregman divergences and by strictly proper scoring rules.Comment: 20 pages; a conference version is to appear in the ALT'2006 proceeding

Mate discrimination among subspecies through a conserved olfactory pathway.

Communication mechanisms underlying the sexual isolation of species are poorly understood. Using four subspecies of Drosophila mojavensis as a model, we identify two behaviorally active, male-specific pheromones. One functions as a conserved male antiaphrodisiac in all subspecies and acts via gustation. The second induces female receptivity via olfaction exclusively in the two subspecies that produce it. Genetic analysis of the cognate receptor for the olfactory pheromone indicates an important role for this sensory pathway in promoting sexual isolation of subspecies, in combination with auditory signals. Unexpectedly, the peripheral sensory pathway detecting this pheromone is conserved molecularly, physiologically, and anatomically across subspecies. These observations imply that subspecies-specific behaviors arise from differential interpretation of the same peripheral cue, reminiscent of sexually conserved detection but dimorphic interpretation of male pheromones in Drosophila melanogaster. Our results reveal that, during incipient speciation, pheromone production, detection, and interpretation do not necessarily evolve in a coordinated manner

Effect of sickle cell trait and apol1 genotype on the association of soluble upar with kidney function measures in black americans

Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is the circulating form of urokinase plasminogen activator receptor, a glycosyl-phosphatidylinositol–anchored membrane protein expressed in various cell types including kidney podocytes and endothelial cells. suPAR has been associated with a decline in eGFR and the risk of incident CKD or proteinuria in a variety of clinical settings. In the United States, the higher risk of CKD in Black people compared with White people may be at least partially attributable to two genetic susceptibility factors, APOL1 and sickle cell trait, which occur respectively in approximately 13% and 8% of Black people. Hayeketal recently showed that suPAR levels modify the association between APOL1 genotype and eGFR decline in the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension and a cohort registry of Black people who underwent cardiac catherization

Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor: Genetic Variation and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Black Adults

BACKGROUND: suPAR (Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor) has emerged as an important biomarker of coagulation, inflammation, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. The contribution of suPAR to CVD risk and its genetic influence in Black populations have not been evaluated. METHODS: We measured suPAR in 3492 Black adults from the prospective, community-based JHS (Jackson Heart Study). Cross-sectional associations of suPAR with lifestyle and CVD risk factors were assessed, whole-genome sequence data were used to evaluate genetic associations of suPAR, and relationships of suPAR with incident CVD outcomes and overall mortality were estimated over follow-up. RESULTS: In Cox models adjusted for traditional CVD risk factors, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and CRP (C-reactive protein), each 1-SD higher suPAR was associated with a 21% to 31% increased risk of incident coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and mortality. In the genome-wide association study, 2 missense (rs399145 encoding p.Thr86Ala, rs4760 encoding p.Phe272Leu) and 2 noncoding regulatory variants (rs73935023 within an enhancer element and rs4251805 within the promoter) of PLAUR on chromosome 19 were each independently associated with suPAR and together explained 14% of suPAR phenotypic variation. The allele frequencies of each of the four suPAR-associated genetic variants differ considerably across African and European populations. We further show that PLAUR rs73935023 can alter transcriptional activity in vitro. We did not find any association between genetically determined suPAR and CVD in JHS or a larger electronic medical record-based analyses of Blacks or Whites. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the importance of ancestry-differentiated genetic variation on suPAR levels and indicate suPAR is a CVD biomarker in Black adults

Multi-ethnic genome-wide association analyses of white blood cell and platelet traits in the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study

Background: Circulating white blood cell and platelet traits are clinically linked to various disease outcomes and differ across individuals and ancestry groups. Genetic factors play an important role in determining these traits and many loci have been identified. However, most of these findings were identified in populations of European ancestry (EA), with African Americans (AA), Hispanics/Latinos (HL), and other races/ethnicities being severely underrepresented. Results: We performed ancestry-combined and ancestry-specific genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for white blood cell and platelet traits in the ancestrally diverse Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study, including 16,201 AA, 21,347 HL, and 27,236 EA participants. We identified six novel findings at suggestive significance (P < 5E-8), which need confirmation, and independent signals at six previously established regions at genome-wide significance (P < 2E-9). We confirmed multiple previously reported genome-wide significant variants in the single variant association analysis and multiple genes using PrediXcan. Evaluation of loci reported from a Euro-centric GWAS indicated attenuation of effect estimates in AA and HL compared to EA populations. Conclusions: Our results highlighted the potential to identify ancestry-specific and ancestry-agnostic variants in participants with diverse backgrounds and advocate for continued efforts in improving inclusion of racially/ethnically diverse populations in genetic association studies for complex traits

The Polygenic and Monogenic Basis of Blood Traits and Diseases

Blood cells play essential roles in human health, underpinning physiological processes such as immunity, oxygen transport, and clotting, which when perturbed cause a significant global health burden. Here we integrate data from UK Biobank and a large-scale international collaborative effort, including data for 563,085 European ancestry participants, and discover 5,106 new genetic variants independently associated with 29 blood cell phenotypes covering a range of variation impacting hematopoiesis. We holistically characterize the genetic architecture of hematopoiesis, assess the relevance of the omnigenic model to blood cell phenotypes, delineate relevant hematopoietic cell states influenced by regulatory genetic variants and gene networks, identify novel splice-altering variants mediating the associations, and assess the polygenic prediction potential for blood traits and clinical disorders at the interface of complex and Mendelian genetics. These results show the power of large-scale blood cell trait GWAS to interrogate clinically meaningful variants across a wide allelic spectrum of human variation. Analysis of blood cell traits in the UK Biobank and other cohorts illuminates the full genetic architecture of hematopoietic phenotypes, with evidence supporting the omnigenic model for complex traits and linking polygenic burden with monogenic blood diseases

Allelic Heterogeneity at the CRP Locus Identified by Whole-Genome Sequencing in Multi-ancestry Cohorts

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) can improve assessment of low-frequency and rare variants, particularly in non-European populations that have been underrepresented in existing genomic studies. The genetic determinants of C-reactive protein (CRP), a biomarker of chronic inflammation, have been extensively studied, with existing genome-wide association studies (GWASs) conducted in >200,000 individuals of European ancestry. In order to discover novel loci associated with CRP levels, we examined a multi-ancestry population (n = 23,279) with WGS (∼38× coverage) from the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program. We found evidence for eight distinct associations at the CRP locus, including two variants that have not been identified previously (rs11265259 and rs181704186), both of which are non-coding and more common in individuals of African ancestry (∼10% and ∼1% minor allele frequency, respectively, and rare or monomorphic in 1000 Genomes populations of East Asian, South Asian, and European ancestry). We show that the minor (G) allele of rs181704186 is associated with lower CRP levels and decreased transcriptional activity and protein binding in vitro, providing a plausible molecular mechanism for this African ancestry-specific signal. The individuals homozygous for rs181704186-G have a mean CRP level of 0.23 mg/L, in contrast to individuals heterozygous for rs181704186 with mean CRP of 2.97 mg/L and major allele homozygotes with mean CRP of 4.11 mg/L. This study demonstrates the utility of WGS in multi-ethnic populations to drive discovery of complex trait associations of large effect and to identify functional alleles in noncoding regulatory regions

Comparison of Proteomic Assessment Methods in Multiple Cohort Studies

Novel proteomics platforms, such as the aptamer-based SOMAscan platform, can quantify large numbers of proteins efficiently and cost-effectively and are rapidly growing in popularity. However, comparisons to conventional immunoassays remain underexplored, leaving investigators unsure when cross-assay comparisons are appropriate. The correlation of results from immunoassays with relative protein quantification is explored by SOMAscan. For 63 proteins assessed in two chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cohorts, subpopulations and intermediate outcome measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS), and COPDGene, using myriad rules based medicine multiplex immunoassays and SOMAscan, Spearman correlation coefficients range from −0.13 to 0.97, with a median correlation coefficient of ≈0.5 and consistent results across cohorts. A similar range is observed for immunoassays in the population-based Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and for other assays in COPDGene and SPIROMICS. Comparisons of relative quantification from the antibody-based Olink platform and SOMAscan in a small cohort of myocardial infarction patients also show a wide correlation range. Finally, cis pQTL data, mass spectrometry aptamer confirmation, and other publicly available data are integrated to assess relationships with observed correlations. Correlation between proteomics assays shows a wide range and should be carefully considered when comparing and meta-analyzing proteomics data across assays and studies

Whole-genome sequencing in diverse subjects identifies genetic correlates of leukocyte traits: The NHLBI TOPMed program

Many common and rare variants associated with hematologic traits have been discovered through imputation on large-scale reference panels. However, the majority of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been conducted in Europeans, and determining causal variants has proved challenging. We performed a GWAS of total leukocyte, neutrophil, lymphocyte, monocyte, eosinophil, and basophil counts generated from 109,563,748 variants in the autosomes and the X chromosome in the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program, which included data from 61,802 individuals of diverse ancestry. We discovered and replicated 7 leukocyte trait associations, including (1) the association between a chromosome X, pseudo-autosomal region (PAR), noncoding variant located between cytokine receptor genes (CSF2RA and CLRF2) and lower eosinophil count; and (2) associations between single variants found predominantly among African Americans at the S1PR3 (9q22.1) and HBB (11p15.4) loci and monocyte and lymphocyte counts, respectively. We further provide evidence indicating that the newly discovered eosinophil-lowering chromosome X PAR variant might be associated with reduced susceptibility to common allergic diseases such as atopic dermatitis and asthma. Additionally, we found a burden of very rare FLT3 (13q12.2) variants associated with monocyte counts. Together, these results emphasize the utility of whole-genome sequencing in diverse samples in identifying associations missed by European-ancestry-driven GWASs