Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?: a computational simulation of Pennsylvania

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic, policy makers debated over whether, when, and how long to close schools. While closing schools could have reduced influenza transmission thereby preventing cases, deaths, and health care costs, it may also have incurred substantial costs from increased childcare needs and lost productivity by teachers and other school employees.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A combination of agent-based and Monte Carlo economic simulation modeling was used to determine the cost-benefit of closing schools (vs. not closing schools) for different durations (range: 1 to 8 weeks) and symptomatic case incidence triggers (range: 1 to 30) for the state of Pennsylvania during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. Different scenarios varied the basic reproductive rate (R₀) from 1.2, 1.6, to 2.0 and used case-hospitalization and case-fatality rates from the 2009 epidemic. Additional analyses determined the cost per influenza case averted of implementing school closure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For all scenarios explored, closing schools resulted in substantially higher net costs than not closing schools. For R₀= 1.2, 1.6, and 2.0 epidemics, closing schools for 8 weeks would have resulted in median net costs of $21.0 billion (95$8.0 - $45.3 billion). The median cost per influenza case averted would have been$14,185 ($5,423 -$30,565) for R₀= 1.2, $25,253 ($9,501 - $53,461) for R₀= 1.6, and$23,483 ($8,870 -$50,926) for R₀= 2.0.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study suggests that closing schools during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic could have resulted in substantial costs to society as the potential costs of lost productivity and childcare could have far outweighed the cost savings in preventing influenza cases.</p

Double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial of bolus-dose vitamin D-3 supplementation in adults with asthma (ViDiAs)

RATIONALE: Asthma exacerbations are commonly precipitated by viral upper respiratory infections (URIs). Vitamin D insufficiency associates with susceptibility to URI in patients with asthma. Trials of vitamin D in adults with asthma with incidence of exacerbation and URI as primary outcome are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a randomised controlled trial of vitamin D3 supplementation for the prevention of asthma exacerbation and URI (coprimary outcomes). MEASUREMENTS AND METHODS: 250 adults with asthma in London, UK were allocated to receive six 2-monthly oral doses of 3 mg vitamin D3 (n=125) or placebo (n=125) over 1 year. Secondary outcomes included asthma control test and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire scores, fractional exhaled nitric oxide and concentrations of inflammatory markers in induced sputum. Subgroup analyses were performed to determine whether effects of supplementation were modified by baseline vitamin D status or genotype for 34 single nucleotide polymorphisms in 11 vitamin D pathway genes. MAIN RESULTS: 206/250 participants (82%) were vitamin D insufficient at baseline. Vitamin D3 did not influence time to first severe exacerbation (adjusted HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.53, p=0.91) or first URI (adjusted HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.16, p=0.34). No clinically important effect of vitamin D3 was seen on any of the secondary outcomes listed above. The influence of vitamin D3 on coprimary outcomes was not modified by baseline vitamin D status or genotype. CONCLUSIONS: Bolus-dose vitamin D3 supplementation did not influence time to exacerbation or URI in a population of adults with asthma with a high prevalence of baseline vitamin D insufficiency. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00978315 (ClinicalTrials.gov)