Real estate investments and financial stability : evidence from regional commercial banks in China

The 2008 United States subprime mortgage crisis demonstrated how developments in real estate markets can cause instability in the banking sector and raised concerns in many emerging economies with significant real estate development and a rapidly growing commercial banking sector, particularly in China. There is clear evidence that commercial banks in China, especially regional commercial banks, have lent significantly to the real estate sector. The recent slowdown in the housing market in China and the increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in China's commercial banking sector motivated us to investigate the connection between real estate markets and banking stability. This paper proposes three testable hypotheses linking the growth of investment in real estate and the stability of regional commercial banks in China, measured by NPLs. Our empirical results reveal a close connection between the growth of investment in real estate and the NPLs among regional commercial banks, and its sensitivity to real estate market cycles. When real estate market activity declines, our results suggest, regional commercial banks can find themselves in trouble if they have significant exposure to one type of (real estate) asset. In addition, we find that regional bank competition plays a critical role in defining the relationship between bank stability and real estate investment activity

Convergence in the Innovative Performance of the European Union Countries

Convergence, CIS, Innovation, L60, O31, O33,

How Much of the Macroeconomic Variation in Eastern Europe is Attributable to External Shocks?

We decompose by origin the sources of the variation in real aggregate output and aggregate price level in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We find that a sizable fraction of the variation is attributable to external shocks, especially so for aggregate price level. We show that euroarea interest rate shocks can account for a significant fraction of the external spillover effects. We conclude that theoretical models of advanced transition economies and policy rules for these economies should feature a prominent role for external shocks. Comparative Economic Studies (2006) 48, 523–544. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100143

Dutch Disease Scare in Kazakhstan: Is it real?

Dutch disease, Balassa–Samuelson, Kazakhstan, Real exchange rate, Nominal exchange rate, Oil price, E31, F31, O11, P17,

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Growth: Evidence from Transition Economies

Using a fixed effects panel data approach, this paper empirically examines the effects of trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth of per capita real GDP in 13 transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Baltic region from 1991 to 2005. A significant positive effect of trade on growth is a robust result for transition economies of this region. In addition, domestic investment appears to be an important determinant of growth. In general, FDI does not have any significant impact on growth in these transition economies. However, when we control for the effects of domestic investment and trade on FDI, it appears to be a significant determinant of growth for the period after 1995. Comparative Economic Studies (2009) 51, 20–50. doi:10.1057/ces.2008.20