Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Despite the well documented consequences of obesity during childhood and adolescence and future risks of excess body mass on non-communicable diseases in adulthood, coordinated global action on excess body mass in early life is still insufficient. Inconsistent measurement and reporting are a barrier to specific targets, resource allocation, and interventions. In this Article we report current estimates of overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence, progress over time, and forecasts to inform specific actions. METHODS: Using established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we modelled overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence from 1990 to 2021, and then forecasted to 2050. Primary data for our models included 1321 unique measured and self-reported anthropometric data sources from 180 countries and territories from survey microdata, reports, and published literature. These data were used to estimate age-standardised global, regional, and national overweight prevalence and obesity prevalence (separately) for children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years, typically in school and cared for by child health services) and older adolescents (aged 15–24 years, increasingly out of school and cared for by adult services) by sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2021 were generated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models, which leveraged temporal and spatial correlation in epidemiological trends to ensure comparability of results across time and geography. Prevalence forecasts from 2022 to 2050 were generated using a generalised ensemble modelling approach assuming continuation of current trends. For every age-sex-location population across time (1990–2050), we estimated obesity (vs overweight) predominance using the log ratio of obesity percentage to overweight percentage. FINDINGS: Using established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we modelled overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence from 1990 to 2021, and then forecasted to 2050. Primary data for our models included 1321 unique measured and self-reported anthropometric data sources from 180 countries and territories from survey microdata, reports, and published literature. These data were used to estimate age-standardised global, regional, and national overweight prevalence and obesity prevalence (separately) for children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years, typically in school and cared for by child health services) and older adolescents (aged 15–24 years, increasingly out of school and cared for by adult services) by sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2021 were generated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models, which leveraged temporal and spatial correlation in epidemiological trends to ensure comparability of results across time and geography. Prevalence forecasts from 2022 to 2050 were generated using a generalised ensemble modelling approach assuming continuation of current trends. For every age-sex-location population across time (1990–2050), we estimated obesity (vs overweight) predominance using the log ratio of obesity percentage to overweight percentage. INTERPRETATION: Both overweight and obesity increased substantially in every world region between 1990 and 2021, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in overweight and obesity have failed a generation of children and adolescents. Beyond 2021, overweight during childhood and adolescence is forecast to stabilise due to further increases in the population who have obesity. Increases in obesity are expected to continue for all populations in all world regions. Because substantial change is forecasted to occur between 2022 and 2030, immediate actions are needed to address this public health crisis

Overexpression of CD44 accompanies acquired tamoxifen resistance in MCF7 cells and augments their sensitivity to the stromal factors, heregulin and hyaluronan

Background: Acquired resistance to endocrine therapy in breast cancer is a significant problem with relapse being associated with local and/or regional recurrence and frequent distant metastases. Breast cancer cell models reveal that endocrine resistance is accompanied by a gain in aggressive behaviour driven in part through altered growth factor receptor signalling, particularly involving erbB family receptors. Recently we identified that CD44, a transmembrane cell adhesion receptor known to interact with growth factor receptors, is upregulated in tamoxifen-resistant (TamR) MCF7 breast cancer cells. The purpose of this study was to explore the consequences of CD44 upregulation in an MCF7 cell model of acquired tamoxifen resistance, specifically with respect to the hypothesis that CD44 may influence erbB activity to promote an adverse phenotype. Methods: CD44 expression in MCF7 and TamR cells was assessed by RT-PCR, Western blotting and immunocytochemistry. Immunofluorescence and immunoprecipitation studies revealed CD44-erbB associations. TamR cells (± siRNA-mediated CD44 suppression) or MCF7 cells (± transfection with the CD44 gene) were treated with the CD44 ligand, hyaluronon (HA), or heregulin and their in vitro growth (MTT), migration (Boyden chamber and wound healing) and invasion (Matrigel transwell migration) determined. erbB signalling was assessed using Western blotting. The effect of HA on erbB family dimerisation in TamR cells was determined by immunoprecipitation in the presence or absence of CD44 siRNA. Results: TamR cells overexpressed CD44 where it was seen to associate with erbB2 at the cell surface. siRNA-mediated suppression of CD44 in TamR cells significantly attenuated their response to heregulin, inhibiting heregulin-induced cell migration and invasion. Furthermore, TamR cells exhibited enhanced sensitivity to HA, with HA treatment resulting in modulation of erbB dimerisation, ligand-independent activation of erbB2 and EGFR and induction of cell migration. Overexpression of CD44 in MCF7 cells, which lack endogenous CD44, generated an HA-sensitive phenotype, with HA-stimulation promoting erbB/EGFR activation and migration. Conclusions: These data suggest an important role for CD44 in the context of tamoxifen-resistance where it may augment cellular response to erbB ligands and HA, factors that are reported to be present within the tumour microenvironment in vivo. Thus CD44 may present an important determinant of breast cancer progression in the setting of endocrine resistance