The effects of Euro/TL volatility on the performance of Turkey - European Union trade: empirical evidence

Bu çalışmada; 1996-2011 döneminde, Euro/TL kurundaki dalgalanmaların Türkiye-AB ticaretini nasıl etkilediği araştırılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, öncelikle Philips-Perron ve KPSS birim kök testleri ve daha sonra da, Zivot-Andrews ve Lee- Strazicich yapısal kırılma testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Son olarak ise, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek amacıyla Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve Türkiye-AB ticaretinde çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir.In this study the effect of Euro/TL exchange rate fluctuations on Turkey-EU trade is analyzed for 1996-2011 period. In this context, the Philips-Perron and KPSS unit root tests are carried out first. In addition, the Zivot-Andrews and Lee-Strazicich structural break tests were also performed. Finally, Dolado-Lutkepohl Granger causality test was applied in order to determine the direction of the relationship between the variables. The tests revealed a bi-directional causality in Turkey-EU trade

Ekonomik büyüme ve borsa getirisi arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği

Financial development is one of the most important determinants of the economic development. Financial developments in Turkey began in the early 1980s and still have continued. During this period, it has survived a severe interaction between financial development and economic growth. In this study, the causality relationship between stock returns and economic growth in Turkey it was analysed over the period 1998Q2-2014Q2. In this context; firstly, Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto and Frequency Domain causality tests were applied in order to understand the causality relationship between the two variables. As a result of the Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is no relation of causality between the variables, but according to Frequency Domain causality test stock returns cause the economic growth in short term and economic growth cause stock returns in medium term.Finansal gelişme ekonomik kalkınmanın en önemli belirleyicilerinden birisidir. Türkiye’de finansal gelişme 1980’li yılların başında başlamış ve halen de devam etmektedir. Geçen süre içerisinde finansal gelişme ile ekonomik kalkınma arasında ciddi bir etkileşim yaşanagelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1998Q2-2014Q2 döneminde borsa getirisi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, iki değişken arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmek amacıyla Bootstrap tabanlı Toda-Yamamoto ve frekans dağılımı nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Bootstrap tabanlı Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır. Fakat, frekans dağılımı nedensellik testi göstermektedir ki; borsa getirisi kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümenin ve ekonomik büyüme de orta dönemde borsa getirisinin nedenidir

Euro/TL Volatilitesinin Türkiye - Avrupa Birliği Ticaret Performansı Üzerindeki Etkileri: Ampirik Bulgular

In this study the effect of Euro/TL exchange rate fluctuations on Turkey-EU trade is analyzed for 1996-2011 period. In this context, the Philips-Perron and KPSS unit root tests are carried out first. In addition, the Zivot-Andrews and Lee-Strazicich structural break tests were also performed. Finally, Dolado-Lutkepohl Granger causality test was applied in order to determine the direction of the relationship between the variables. The tests revealed a bi-directional causality in Turkey-EU trade.Bu çalışmada; 1996-2011 döneminde, Euro/TL kurundaki dalgalanmaların Türkiye-AB ticaretini nasıl etkilediği araştırılmıştır. Bu bağlamda, öncelikle Philips-Perron ve KPSS birim kök testleri ve daha sonra da, Zivot-Andrews ve Lee- Strazicich yapısal kırılma testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Son olarak ise, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek amacıyla Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve Türkiye-AB ticaretinde çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir

Effectiveness of monetary policies in OECD countries

In this study, it was analysed whether monetary policies have an effect on stock price index in 13 OECD countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States) with High Income Level for the period after 2008 financial crisis (2010-2013). In the analysis results, it was determined that there is a unidirectional relationship from short term interest rates and M1 money supply towards stock price indexes; and a unidirectional relationship from stock price index towards interbank interest rates and M3 money supply. In this respect, it was concluded that effectiveness of monetary policies in 13 OECD countries with high-income level are weak after 2008 financial crisis

Testing the Validity of the Triplet Deficit Hypothesis for Turkey: Asymmetric Causality Analysis

In this study, the validity was analyzed of the triple deficit hypothesis in Turkey between the years 1960 and 2012. First, the stationarity of positive and negative shocks related to the current account deficit, budget deficit, and savings gap was tested. As a result of unit root tests, it was concluded that all the positive and negative shocks were I(1). Then, the causal relationship was analyzed with regard to the aforesaid shocks of variables by means of an asymmetric causality test. As a result of the asymmetric causality test, bi-directional causality was found between the current account deficit and the budget deficit and between the current account deficit and savings gap. Therefore, it can be concluded that the triple deficit hypothesis is valid in Turkey

Do labour market institutions variables impact unemployment? Evidence from the CEE countries

Purpose: In this study, the aim is to determine whether labour market institutions (LMI) variables impacted the unemployment rate in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries between 2000 and 2017. Methodology: Panel data methods that take cross-sectional dependence into account are used for the analysis. Results: Empirical findings show that real minimum wages, tax wedge, and union density do not impact the unemployment rate in Poland, Latvia, and Estonia, while these variables impact the unemployment rate in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Hungary. Conclusion: As a result of the research, it is concluded that the LMI variables do not have a substantial effect on the unemployment rate in Poland, Latvia, and Estonia. On the other hand, the LMI variables have a substantial impact on the unemployment rate in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Hungary. Therefore, it is understood that the LMI variables have an influence on the unemployment in only four out of seven CEE countries

Testing the Validity of the Triplet Deficit Hypothesis for Turkey: Asymmetric Causality Analysis

Abstract In this study, the validity was analyzed of the triple deficit hypothesis i

The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Stock Returns : Evidence From Turkey

Finansal gelişme ekonomik kalkınmanın en önemli belirleyicilerinden birisidir. Türkiye’de finansal gelişme 1980’li yılların başında başlamış ve halen de devam etmektedir. Geçen süre içerisinde finansal gelişme ile ekonomik kalkınma arasında ciddi bir etkileşim yaşanagelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1998Q2-2014Q2 döneminde borsa getirisi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, iki değişken arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmek amacıyla Bootstrap tabanlı Toda-Yamamoto ve frekans dağılımı nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Bootstrap tabanlı Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır. Fakat, frekans dağılımı nedensellik testi göstermektedir ki; borsa getirisi kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümenin ve ekonomik büyüme de orta dönemde borsa getirisinin nedenidir.Financial development is one of the most important determinants of the economic development. Financial developments in Turkey began in the early 1980s and still have continued. During this period, it has survived a severe interaction between financial development and economic growth. In this study, the causality relationship between stock returns and economic growth in Turkey it was analysed over the period 1998Q2-2014Q2. In this context; firstly, Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto and Frequency Domain causality tests were applied in order to understand the causality relationship between the two variables. As a result of the Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is no relation of causality between the variables, but according to Frequency Domain causality test stock returns cause the economic growth in short term and economic growth cause stock returns in medium term