Astrobiological Complexity with Probabilistic Cellular Automata

Search for extraterrestrial life and intelligence constitutes one of the major endeavors in science, but has yet been quantitatively modeled only rarely and in a cursory and superficial fashion. We argue that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone. The relevant astrobiological parameters are to be modeled as the elements of the input probability matrix for the PCA kernel. With the underlying simplicity of the cellular automata constructs, this approach enables a quick analysis of large and ambiguous input parameters' space. We perform a simple clustering analysis of typical astrobiological histories and discuss the relevant boundary conditions of practical importance for planning and guiding actual empirical astrobiological and SETI projects. In addition to showing how the present framework is adaptable to more complex situations and updated observational databases from current and near-future space missions, we demonstrate how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches.Comment: 37 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables; added journal reference belo

Pathogen Populations Evolve to Greater Race Complexity in Agricultural Systems – Evidence from Analysis of Rhynchosporium secalis Virulence Data

Fitness cost associated with pathogens carrying unnecessary virulence alleles is the fundamental assumption for preventing the emergence of complex races in plant pathogen populations but this hypothesis has rarely been tested empirically on a temporal and spatial scale which is sufficient to distinguish evolutionary signals from experimental error. We analyzed virulence characteristics of ∼1000 isolates of the barley pathogen Rhynchosporium secalis collected from different parts of the United Kingdom between 1984 and 2005. We found a gradual increase in race complexity over time with a significant correlation between sampling date and race complexity of the pathogen (r20 = 0.71, p = 0.0002) and an average loss of 0.1 avirulence alleles (corresponding to an average gain of 0.1 virulence alleles) each year. We also found a positive and significant correlation between barley cultivar diversity and R. secalis virulence variation. The conditions assumed to favour complex races were not present in the United Kingdom and we hypothesize that the increase in race complexity is attributable to the combination of natural selection and genetic drift. Host resistance selects for corresponding virulence alleles to fixation or dominant frequency. Because of the weak fitness penalty of carrying the unnecessary virulence alleles, genetic drift associated with other evolutionary forces such as hitch-hiking maintains the frequency of the dominant virulence alleles even after the corresponding resistance factors cease to be used