Prospects for Russia's Development: The Role of the Demographic Factor

This study is devoted to the analysis and forecasting of the Russian demographic situation and identifies a set of interrelated problems that have, or will have in the near future, a very prominent place in all long-range strategic plans and short-term proposals regarding various urgent social policy measures. Low fertility, high mortality, and natural decreases in the Russian population are long-range demographic characteristics indicating that the population will not maintain its present size. They instead foreordain a steady reduction in the Russian population, and a drastic transformation in the age pyramid. These very important shifts that cannot fail to have serious economic, political, and social consequences. The purpose of the forecast presented in this study is to warn Russian society of the demographic challenges awaiting it and propose that we start thinking about possible responses.