Directed acyclic graphs: An under-utilized tool for child maltreatment research

Background: Child maltreatment research involves modeling complex relationships between multiple interrelated variables. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are one tool child maltreatment researchers can use to think through relationships among the variables operative in a causal research question and to make decisions about the optimal analytic strategy to minimize potential sources of bias. Objective: The purpose of this paper is to highlight the utility of DAGs for child maltreatment research and to provide a practical resource to facilitate and support the use of DAGs in child maltreatment research. Results: We first provide an overview of DAG terminology and concepts relevant to child maltreatment research. We describe DAG construction and define specific types of variables within the context of DAGs including confounders, mediators, and colliders, detailing the manner in which each type of variable can be used to inform study design and analysis. We then describe four specific scenarios in which DAGs may yield valuable insights for child maltreatment research: (1) identifying covariates to include in multivariable models to adjust for confounding; (2) identifying unintended effects of adjusting for a mediator; (3) identifying unintended effects of adjusting for multiple types of maltreatment; and (4) identifying potential selection bias in data specific to children involved in the child welfare system. Conclusions: Overall, DAGs have the potential to help strengthen and advance the child maltreatment research and practice agenda by increasing transparency about assumptions, illuminating potential sources of bias, and enhancing the interpretability of results for translation to evidence-based practice

Prevalence of Injuries Among Medicaid Enrolled Infants Prior to Child Abuse and Neglect

Prior research has identified common injuries among children who experience child maltreatment; however, most of this work has focused on inpatient settings and has excluded many cases of neglect. This study examines the prevalence of injuries that occur prior to a diagnosis of child maltreatment, as well as the proportion of children with well-child visits prior to the injury and child maltreatment diagnosis. Based on a secondary analysis of Medicaid data from four states, we found that among infants with 12 months of continuous enrollment (N = 4817), 30.6% of those diagnosed with maltreatment were previously diagnosed with an injury. Among infants diagnosed with child maltreatment, 88.4% had at least one well-child visit prior to the maltreatment diagnosis. Among children with a maltreatment diagnosis and a prior injury, 84% had at least one well-child visit preceding the injury. These results indicate that most children had at least one well-child visit prior to being diagnosed with child maltreatment or an injury, indicating opportunities for prevention

Methodologic limitations of prescription opioid safety research and recommendations for improving the evidence base

Purpose: The ongoing opioid epidemic has claimed more than a quarter million Americans' lives over the past 15 years. The epidemic began with an escalation of prescription opioid deaths and has now evolved to include secondary waves of illicit heroin and fentanyl deaths, while the deaths due to prescription opioid overdoses are still increasing. In response, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) moved to limit opioid prescribing with the release of opioid prescribing guidelines for chronic noncancer pain in March 2016. The guidelines represent a logical and timely federal response to this growing crisis. However, CDC acknowledged that the evidence base linking opioid prescribing to opioid use disorders and overdose was grades 3 and 4. Methods: Motivated by the need to strengthen the evidence base, this review details limitations of the opioid safety studies cited in the CDC guidelines with a focus on methodological limitations related to internal and external validity. Results: Internal validity concerns were related to poor confounding control, variable misclassification, selection bias, competing risks, and potential competing interventions. External validity concerns arose from the use of limited source populations, historical data (in a fast-changing epidemic), and issues with handling of cancer and acute pain patients' data. We provide a nonexhaustive list of 7 recommendations to address these limitations in future opioid safety studies. Conclusion: Strengthening the opioid safety evidence base will aid any future revisions of the CDC guidelines and enhance their prevention impact

Trends in unintentional polysubstance overdose deaths and individual and community correlates of polysubstance overdose, North Carolina, 2009-2018

Background: Polysubstance involvement is increasing among fatal drug overdoses. However, little is known about the epidemiology of polysubstance drug overdoses. This paper describes emerging trends in unintentional polysubstance overdose deaths in North Carolina (NC) and examines associations with individual and community factors. Methods: Using 2009–2018 NC death certificate data, we identified unintentional drug overdose deaths and commonly involved substances (opioids, stimulants, benzodiazepines, alcohol, and antiepileptics). We examined polysubstance combinations, comparing opioid and non-opioid involved deaths. We examined individual level correlates from death certificate data and community level correlates from the American Community Survey and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County Health Rankings to quantify associations. Results: From 2009–2018, 53 % of opioid and 19 % of non-opioid overdose deaths involved multiple substances. During this period, polysubstance overdose death increased dramatically, from 2.9 to 12.1 per 100,000 persons, with the greatest increases among drug combinations involving stimulants. The most common polysubstance combinations were: opioids and stimulants (12.1 % of overdose deaths); opioids and benzodiazepines (9.0 %); opioids and alcohol (5.1 %); opioids, stimulants, and benzodiazepines (3.1 %); and opioids, benzodiazepines, and antiepileptics (2.2 %). Compared to overdoses involving opioids alone, overdoses involving combinations of opioids, stimulants, and benzodiazepines involved younger individuals (53.7 % in 15−34 years of age vs. 40.7 %). Men comprised two-thirds of overdoses involving opioids alone, however, overdoses involving opioids, benzodiazepines, and antiepileptics were predominantly among women (60.6 %). Conclusions: Polysubstance involvement has increased among overdose deaths in NC. These findings can be used to inform public health interventions addressing polysubstance deaths and associated individual and community level factors

Preconception and Prenatal Predictors of Early Experiences of Risk and Protection Among Alaska Children

Objectives: Our objective was to identify preconception and prenatal predictors of early experiences of co-occurring risk and protective factors to help target prevention efforts to the highest-need families prior to the birth of the child. Methods: Data were from the Alaska Longitudinal Child Abuse and Neglect Linkage project and the 2012–2014 Alaska Child Understanding Behaviors Survey. We used latent class analysis and Vermunt’s three-step approach to examine predictors of latent classes of risk and protective factors among Alaska children. Results: Among children of Alaska Native/American Indian mothers, financial (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.04, 3.90) and partner stress (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.02, 4.10) prior to childbirth, maternal education < 12 years (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.05, 4.96), and maternal substance use (OR 2.52, 95% CI 1.30, 4.89) were associated with a higher likelihood of membership in a high risk/moderate protection class as compared to a low socioeconomic status/high protection class. Among children of non-Native mothers, partner stress prior to childbirth (OR 3.92, 95% CI 1.08, 14.19), maternal education < 12 years (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.24, 5.81), maternal substance use (OR 2.69, 95% CI 1.24, 5.81), younger maternal age (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80, 0.95), and a greater number of children (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.09, 2.41) were associated with a higher likelihood of membership in a moderate risk/high protection class as compared to a low risk/moderate protection class. Conclusions: Results can inform eligibility criteria for prenatal home visiting programs and prenatal screening in Alaska to ensure prevention programming and referrals are directed to families most in need of additional support

Heterogeneity in Risk and Protection Among Alaska Native/American Indian and Non-Native Children

Currently, little is known about patterns of co-occurring risk and protective factors among young children. Understanding variations in co-occurring risk and protective factors among children in Alaska is important as experiences of collective trauma may contribute to differences in the intersection of risk and protective factors between Alaska Native/American Indian (AN/AI) and non-Native children. Using data from the Alaska Longitudinal Child Abuse and Neglect Linkage (ALCANLink) project, a linkage of the 2009–2011 Alaska Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System survey and administrative data sources, and the 2012–2014 Childhood Understanding Behaviors Survey, we conducted latent class analysis to identify classes of AN/AI (N = 593) and non-Native (N = 1018) children in terms of seven risk factors (poverty, maternal depression, maternal binge drinking, parental incarceration, intimate partner violence exposure, other violence exposure, child maltreatment) and four protective factors (father figure involvement, reading by adults, family meals, peer interactions) experienced prior to age 3 years. We identified two classes among AN/AI children: (1) high risk-moderate protection (29.1%) and (2) low socioeconomic status-high protection (70.9%). We identified two classes among non-Native children: (1) moderate risk-high protection (32.9%) and (2) low risk-high protection (67.1%). A test of invariance revealed that risk and protective factor probabilities differed significantly for corresponding classes of AN/AI and non-Native children. Overall, results demonstrate heterogeneity within and between AN/AI and non-Native children in early experiences of risk and protection and suggest that interventions will be more effective if tailored to the experiences and developmental needs of specific groups of Alaska children

Sustained impacts of North Carolina prison therapeutic diversion units on behavioral outcomes, mental health, self-injury, and restrictive housing readmission

Therapeutic Diversion Units (TDUs) in North Carolina prisons are intended to reduce cycling of individuals with mental health conditions through restrictive housing (i.e., solitary confinement). This paper investigates if previously identified benefits of TDU are sustained when individuals return to the general prison population. Using administrative data on 3170 people, we compare individuals placed in TDUs to TDU-eligible individuals (i.e., individuals with mental health needs) placed in restrictive housing. We use survival analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with confidence intervals (CIs), controlling for confounders. Compared to restrictive housing placement, TDU placement reduced the hazard of infractions (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.52, 0.84) and subsequent restrictive housing placement (HR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.55, 0.73) but increased the hazard of self-harm (HR: 2.67; 95% CI: 1.66, 4.29) upon program release to the general prison population. These findings suggest a need for additional investments and research on restrictive housing diversion programming, including post-diversion program supports

Patterns of Risk and Protective Factors Among Alaska Children: Association With Maternal and Child Well-Being

This study used population-representative data to examine associations of risk and protective factor patterns among Alaska Native/American Indian (AN/AI; N = 592) and non-Native (N = 1,018) children with maternal and child outcomes at age 3 years. Among AN/AI children, a high risk/moderate protection class was associated with child developmental risk and mothers being less likely to feel comfortable asking for help or knowing where to go for parenting information compared to a low socioeconomic status/high protection class. Among non-Native children, a moderate risk/high protection class was associated with child developmental risk and mothers being less likely to feel comfortable asking for help compared to a low risk/high protection class. Results provide insight on the intersection of risk and protective factors among Alaska families

Trajectories of child protective services contact among Alaska Native/American Indian and non-Native children

Background: Contact with child protective services (CPS) functions as an independent marker of child vulnerability. Alaska children are an important population for understanding patterns of CPS contact given high rates of contact overall and among specific demographic groups. Objective: We aimed to identify longitudinal trajectory classes of CPS contact among Alaska Native/American Indian (AN/AI) and non-Native children and examine preconception and prenatal risk factors associated with identified classes. Participants and setting: We used data from the Alaska Longitudinal Child Abuse and Neglect Linkage (ALCANLink) project, a linkage of 2009–2011 Alaska Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) births with administrative data including CPS records. Methods: We conducted growth mixture modeling to identify trajectory classes of CPS contact from birth to age five years. We used Vermunt's three-step approach to examine associations with preconception and prenatal risk factors. Results: Among AN/AI children, we identified three classes: 1) no/low CPS contact (75.4%); 2) continuous CPS contact (19.6%), and 3) early, decreasing CPS contact (5.0%). Among non-Native children, we identified four classes: 1) no CPS contact (81.3%); 2) low, increasing CPS contact (9.5%); 3) early, rapid decline CPS contact (5.8%); and 4) high, decreasing CPS contact (3.3%). Maternal substance use had the largest impact on probabilities of class membership, increasing the probability of membership in classes characterized by CPS contact, among both AN/AI and non-Native children. Conclusions: Results reveal heterogeneity in longitudinal patterns CPS contact across early childhood among Alaska children and identify maternal substance use as an important target for primary prevention

Impact of a community-based naloxone distribution program on opioid overdose death rates

Background: In August 2013, a naloxone distribution program was implemented in North Carolina (NC). This study evaluated that program by quantifying the association between the program and county-level opioid overdose death (OOD) rates and conducting a cost-benefit analysis. Methods: One-group pre-post design. Data included annual county-level counts of naloxone kits distributed from 2013 to 2016 and mortality data from 2000-2016. We used generalized estimating equations to estimate the association between cumulative rates of naloxone kits distributed and annual OOD rates. Costs included naloxone kit purchases and distribution costs; benefits were quantified as OODs avoided and monetized using a conservative value of a life. Results: The rate of OOD in counties with 1–100 cumulative naloxone kits distributed per 100,000 population was 0.90 times (95% CI: 0.78, 1.04) that of counties that had not received kits. In counties that received >100 cumulative kits per 100,000 population, the OOD rate was 0.88 times (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) that of counties that had not received kits. By December 2016, an estimated 352 NC deaths were avoided by naloxone distribution (95% CI: 189, 580). On average, for every dollar spent on the program, there was $2742 of benefit due to OODs avoided (95$1,237, $4882). Conclusions: Our estimates suggest that community-based naloxone distribution is associated with lower OOD rates. The program generated substantial societal benefits due to averted OODs. States and communities should continue to support efforts to increase naloxone access, which may include reducing legal, financial, and normative barriers