Endogenous Technological Change in Energy Systems Models: Synthesis of Experience with ERIS, MARKAL, and MESSAGE

Technological change is widely recognised as a key factor in economic progress, as it enhances the productivity of factor inputs. In recent years also the notion has developed that targeted technological development is a main means to reconcile economic ambitions with ecological considerations. This raises the issue that assessments of future trajectories of for example en-ergy systems should take into account context-specific technological progress. Rather than tak-ing characteristics of existing and emerging technologies as a given, their development should be a function of dedicated Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) and market de-ployment under varying external conditions. Endogenous technological learning has recently shown to be a very promising new feature in energy system models. A learning, or experience curve, describes the specific (investment) cost as a function of the cumulative capacity for a given technology. It reflects the fact that tech-nologies may experience declining costs as a result of its increasing adoption into the society due to the accumulation of knowledge through, among others, processes of learning-by-doing and learning-by-using. This report synthesises the results and findings from experiments with endogenous technologi-cal learning, as reported separately within the EU TEEM project. These experiments have been carried out by three TEEM partners using three models: ERIS (PSI), MARKAL (ECN and PSI), and MESSAGE (IIASA). The main objectives of this synthesis are: to derive common methodo-logical insights; to indicate and assess benefits of the new feature, but also its limitations and issues to solve; and to recommend further research to solve the main issues. This synthesis shows that all model applications are examples of successful first experiments to incorporate the learning-by-doing concept in energy system models. Incorporating the learning-by-doing concept makes an important difference. The experiments demonstrate and quantify the benefits of investing early in emerging technologies that are not competitive at the moment of their deployment. They also show that the long-term impact of policy instruments, such as CO2 taxes or emission limits and RD&D instruments, on technological development can be assessed adequately with models including technology learning. Adopting the concept of endogenous learning, several types of RD&D interventions can be addressed that aim at accelerating the market penetration of new technologies. The directions into which such interventions might lead have been illustrated in some of the experiments. However, quantitative relationships between R&D policy and learning data parameters are still unknow

Final Technical Report - Open Architectures, Standards and Information Systems (OASIS II) – Developing Capacity, Sharing Knowledge and Good Principles across eHealth in Africa

The OASIS II project aimed to build on aspects of the Open Architectures, Standards and Information Systems for Healthcare in Africa (OASIS) project, previously funded by IDRC through the South African Medical Research Council. The objectives of the project included over-arching, network-wide objectives and individual project objectives. In addition, OASIS II aimed to investigate a shared research purpose and combine existing methods between one existing and four new projects and partners to: 1) elaborate a network-wide OASIS II research methodology, 2) establish an open enterprise architectural framework for eHealth in developing countries and 3) create a collaborative framework for sharing new evidence regarding the impact of eHealth solutions in resource-poor settings

First experiences in the implementation of biometric technology to link data from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems with health facility data

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) provide a framework for tracking demographic and health dynamics over time in a defined geographical area. Many HDSSs co-exist with facility-based data sources in the form of Health Management Information Systems (HMIS). Integrating both data sources through reliable record linkage could provide both numerator and denominator populations to estimate disease prevalence and incidence rates in the population and enable determination of accurate health service coverage. OBJECTIVE: To measure the acceptability and performance of fingerprint biometrics to identify individuals in demographic surveillance populations and those attending health care facilities serving the surveillance populations. METHODOLOGY: Two HDSS sites used fingerprint biometrics for patient and/or surveillance population participant identification. The proportion of individuals for whom a fingerprint could be successfully enrolled were characterised in terms of age and sex. RESULTS: Adult (18-65 years) fingerprint enrolment rates varied between 94.1% (95% CI 93.6-94.5) for facility-based fingerprint data collection at the Africa Centre site to 96.7% (95% CI 95.9-97.6) for population-based fingerprint data collection at the Agincourt site. Fingerprint enrolment rates in children under 1 year old (Africa Centre site) were only 55.1% (95% CI 52.7-57.4). By age 5, child fingerprint enrolment rates were comparable to those of adults. CONCLUSION: This work demonstrates the feasibility of fingerprint-based individual identification for population-based research in developing countries. Record linkage between demographic surveillance population databases and health care facility data based on biometric identification systems would allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of population health, including the ability to study health service utilisation from a population perspective, rather than the more restrictive health service perspective

Progression to AIDS in South Africa Is Associated with both Reverting and Compensatory Viral Mutations

We lack the understanding of why HIV-infected individuals in South Africa progress to AIDS. We hypothesised that in end-stage disease there is a shifting dynamic between T cell imposed immunity and viral immune escape, which, through both compensatory and reverting viral mutations, results in increased viral fitness, elevated plasma viral loads and disease progression. We explored how T cell responses, viral adaptation and viral fitness inter-relate in South African cohorts recruited from Bloemfontein, the Free State (n = 278) and Durban, KwaZulu-Natal (n = 775). Immune responses were measured by γ-interferon ELISPOT assays. HLA-associated viral polymorphisms were determined using phylogenetically corrected techniques, and viral replication capacity (VRC) was measured by comparing the growth rate of gag-protease recombinant viruses against recombinant NL4-3 viruses. We report that in advanced disease (CD4 counts <100 cells/µl), T cell responses narrow, with a relative decline in Gag-directed responses (p<0.0001). This is associated with preserved selection pressure at specific viral amino acids (e.g., the T242N polymorphism within the HLA-B*57/5801 restricted TW10 epitope), but with reversion at other sites (e.g., the T186S polymorphism within the HLA-B*8101 restricted TL9 epitope), most notably in Gag and suggestive of “immune relaxation”. The median VRC from patients with CD4 counts <100 cells/µl was higher than from patients with CD4 counts ≥500 cells/µl (91.15% versus 85.19%, p = 0.0004), potentially explaining the rise in viral load associated with disease progression. Mutations at HIV Gag T186S and T242N reduced VRC, however, in advanced disease only the T242N mutants demonstrated increasing VRC, and were associated with compensatory mutations (p = 0.013). These data provide novel insights into the mechanisms of HIV disease progression in South Africa. Restoration of fitness correlates with loss of viral control in late disease, with evidence for both preserved and relaxed selection pressure across the HIV genome. Interventions that maintain viral fitness costs could potentially slow progression

Technological Change in Economic Models of Environmental Policy: A Survey

This paper provides an overview of the treatment of technological change in economic models of environmental policy. Numerous economic modeling studies have confirmed the sensitivity of mid- and long-run climate change mitigation cost and benefit projections to assumptions about technology costs. In general, technical progress is considered to be a noneconomic, exogenous variable in global climate change modeling. However, there is overwhelming evidence that technological change is not an exogenous variable but to an important degree endogenous, induced by needs and pressures. Hence, some environmenteconomy models treat technological change as endogenous, responding to socio-economic variables. Three main elements in models of technological innovation are: (i) corporate investment in research and development, (ii) spillovers from R&D, and (iii) technology learning, especially learning-by-doing. The incorporation of induced technological change in different types of environmental-economic models tends to reduce the costs of environmental policy, accelerates abatement and may lead to positive spillover and negative leakage

Implementing school malaria surveys in Kenya: towards a national surveillance system

OBJECTIVE: To design and implement surveys of malaria infection and coverage of malaria control interventions among school children in Kenya in order to contribute towards a nationwide assessment of malaria. METHODS: The country was stratified into distinct malaria transmission zones based on a malaria risk map and 480 schools were visited between October 2008 and March 2010. Surveys were conducted in two phases: an initial opportunistic phase whereby schools were selected for other research purposes; and a second phase whereby schools were purposively selected to provide adequate spatial representation across the country. Consent for participation was based on passive, opt-out consent rather than written, opt-in consent because of the routine, low-risk nature of the survey. All children were diagnosed for Plasmodium infection using rapid diagnostic tests, assessed for anaemia and were interviewed about mosquito net usage, recent history of illness, and socio-economic and household indicators. Children's responses were entered electronically in the school and data transmitted nightly to Nairobi using a mobile phone modem connection. RDT positive results were corrected by microscopy and all results were adjusted for clustering using random effect regression modelling. RESULTS: 49,975 children in 480 schools were sampled, at an estimated cost of US$ 1,116 per school. The overall prevalence of malaria and anaemia was 4.3% and 14.1%, respectively, and 19.0% of children reported using an insecticide-treated net (ITN). The prevalence of infection showed marked variation across the country, with prevalence being highest in Western and Nyanza provinces, and lowest in Central, North Eastern and Eastern provinces. Nationally, 2.3% of schools had reported ITN use >60%, and low reported ITN use was a particular problem in Western and Nyanza provinces. Few schools reported having malaria health education materials or ongoing malaria control activities. CONCLUSION: School malaria surveys provide a rapid, cheap and sustainable approach to malaria surveillance which can complement household surveys, and in Kenya, show that large areas of the country do not merit any direct school-based control, but school-based interventions, coupled with strengthened community-based strategies, are warranted in western and coastal Kenya. The results also provide detailed baseline data to inform evaluation of school-based malaria control in Kenya