Designing of the Software Program “Epidemic Potential of Natural Plague Foci in the Territory of the Russian Federation”

Designed has been a computer program “Epidemic potential of natural plague foci in the Russian Federation” applied for the automatized evaluation of the epidemic hazard level of natural plague foci in relation to the population residing on the territory of them. This software optimizes management decision making via provision of the Heads of the Rospotrebnadzor organizations with the comprehensive current data on the sanitary-epidemiological situation on plague across the whole territory of the natural foci in Russia, and by enhancing the quality of the visual data display, which are essential for the decision making in the sphere of biological safety provision. In consequence of integration into “Deductor” software program, counted value of epidemic potential for any location of the natural focus territory can be ranked correspondently using colorimetric scale (from red up violet color, for maximum and minimum rating, respectively). The program is designed on the base of Arc GIS Platform to be introduced into the automatized information analysis system for the provision of biological safety in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

Verification of Mathematical Models of Plague

Mathematic modeling and prognostication of infectious diseases epidemic process is a promising trend of epidemiologic investigations. The complex of mathematic models (SEIRF type) of plague epidemic process was developed for this purpose by the Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe” and laboratory of epidemiologic cybernetics of N.F.Gamaleya Institute for Epidemiology and Microbiology. The data on the plague outbreak in 1945 in the rural settlement Avan’ (Aral region of Kzyl-Orda district of Kazakh SSR) were used to test working efficiency of this complex. The data analysis permitted to obtain the starting and boundary conditions for epidemic process modeling. In the process of modeling the mathematical models of epidemic process of plague with various ways of infection transmission for each epidemic focus in regard with historical data were used. The data were processed by the analytical platform Deductor 5.1. Identified was strong positive correlation between estimated and historical data – r = +0,71. The results received testify that mathematic models are effective and give high degree of confidence. They can be used to receive quantitative characteristics of prognosis for plague epidemic process development with different transmission routes considering that anti-epidemic measures have been taken

Comparative Analysis of Particularly Dangerous Infections Manifestations in the Territory of the Saratov and West-Kazakhstan Regions with a View to Advanced Epidemiological Risk Assessment

On the model of the Saratov and West-Kazakhstan regions carried out is the analysis of the current epidemiological and epizootiological situations in the cross-border territories of the two states: the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan. Depicted is not only the common area of natural-focal territories of old-established infections, such as tularemia, but an intense outspread and formation of natural foci of the emerging infectious diseases too: Crimean hemorrhagic and West Nile fevers. This phenomenon assumes a great deal of importance due to dissemination and circulation of previously unknown to these areas infections concurrently in the two neighboring regions. Specified uniformity of epidemiological public risks in the bordering regions testifies to the need for development and implementation of the integrated system for prevention and response to the emergency situations in the sphere of sanitary-epidemiological welfare of the population in the territory of both of them

Epidemiological Peculiarities of Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic, 2013-2015 in West Africa Countries

Represented are the results of analysis of the on-going EVD epidemic, 2013-2015 in West Africa countries. Identified have been epidemiological peculiarities, the principal ones of which are: the scale of epidemic transmission; social factors of widespread occurrence; registration of EVD cases in the new territories of the African continent - West Africa (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra-Leone); genetic distinction between Ebola virus and the strains of the same virus, species Zaire ebolavirus, that caused previous outbreaks; prevalence of febrile syndrome over hemorrhagic; high risk of infection with EVD among the healthcare workers. Most probable carriers of Ebola virus may be fruit-bats of the three species - Hypsignathus monstrosus, Myonycteris torquata, and Epomops franqueti. Outlined are the key stages and factors of EVD epidemic development

Issues of Scientific and Practical Support of Anti-Epidemic Activities in the Course of Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Response in West Africa

Consideration is given to the experience of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Guinea in the matter of Ebola fever response. Outlined are the challenging issues regarding scientific support of preventive activities. Provided is a brief characteristic of Pasteur Institute of Guinea as a unique platform for research activities. Covered are the legal aspects of collaboration and priority areas for the development of common initiatives in the sphere of epidemiological monitoring. Identified are the stages of material reinforcement and medical stuff capacity building, including training of specialists with a view to the establishment of effective system for epidemiological surveillance

Detection of Specific Antibodies to Arboviruses in Blood Sera of Persons Residing in Kindia Province, the Republic of Guinea

The aim of the work was to detect specific antibodies to West Nile, dengue, CCHF, and chikungunya viruses in blood sera of Guinean Kindia Province residents.Materials and methods. The obtained sera were analyzed in ELISA to discover IgG antibodies to abovementioned viruses.Results and conclusions. Detected were 267 (82 %) positive samples out of 326, containing immunoglobulins of G class to these arboviruses. The obtained data provide evidence for active circulation of dengue and West Nile fevers agents in this territory. Further studies of immune strata of the population, and possible carriers and vectors of arboviruses were demonstrated to be advisable for optimization of approaches to prophylactic (anti-epidemic) measures implementation

Assessment of the Potential Epidemic Hazard as Regards International Public Events in Terms of the Currently Important Infectious Diseases

International public events (IPE) present some actual epidemiological problems requiring proper methodological elaboration. In this respect for the first time developed has been the scheme of assessment of their potential epidemic hazard (PEH), based on integrated evaluation of epidemiological risk as regards infectious diseases listed in the IHR (2005). On the cholera model demonstrated is the fact that high priority hazard of public events emerges when those are combined with such elements of epidemiological risk as territory and time of a threat, as well as risk factors and risk contingents. Thus the integral effect of all elements realization is manifested through high probability of infectious disease importation, which is associated with emergency situation, into the public event location and the disturbance of mass gathering progress. Reliability and functionality of the developed scheme is verified on other infections too. PEH assessment procedure allows for timely identification of priority goals, for rating means and capacities, organizational resources, methodological and technological arrays for the provision of sanitary-epidemiological welfare and biological safety when managing public event

Results of the Test-Run of the Computer Software Model Support System for Managerial Decision Making

Considered is the experience of development of the decision support system (DSS) in the sphere of biological safety provision. Described are the objectives, functions, and architecture of DSS. Represented are the results of operational program-testing in the model territory (the Astrakhan region). Indicated is the effectiveness of DSS for information support of the control activity over internal and external biosafety hazards. Determined are the directions for further development of DSS

Management and Performance of Diagnostic Investigations on the Platform of the Specialized Anti-Epidemic Team Mobile Complex During EVD Epidemics in 2014 in the Republic of Guinea

Given is an account of the EVD epidemics that started in the Republic of Guinea in December, 2013 and spread over West African countries within 2014. Established have been the grounds for the Rospotrebnadzor SAET deployment in the Republic of Guinea, objectives, goals and stuffing of the mission, and mobile complex technical performance. Described are the key stages of the work, including the process of integration into the UNMEER. Outlined are priority areas of collaboration with the National Public Health Ministry and international partner organizations. Represented are the results of work on the Ebola fever and other dangerous infectious diseases diagnostics, carried out at the mobile facility. Provided is molecular-genetic characteristics of the Ebola virus

Results of Work of the Rospotrebnadzor SAET on the Provision of Sanitary Epidemiological Welfare of the Population during the Summer Health-Promotion Campaign, 2014 in the Crimean Federal District

Integration of the Crimean Federal District (CFD) into the Russian Federation in March, 2014 predetermined the necessity to organize preventive activities, aimed at the provision of sanitary epidemiological welfare in the region. The paper observes the results of work of the specialized anti-epidemic teams, affiliated to the Stavropol Research Anti-Plague Institute and Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe”, on the provision of assistance to CFD Sanitary Epidemiological Service (SES) in operational etiological investigation of infectious diseases outbreaks. Performed is the laboratory analysis of 2407 clinical and environmental samples. 676 tests out of 11518 have showed positive (non-standard) results. Given are the recommendations concerning optimization of work of the CFD SES facilities