Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle~24 will be about 35% weaker than cycle~23.Comment: 10 pages 1 table 3 figure

The origin of grand minima in the sunspot cycle

One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes (C14 and Be10) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11,000 yr, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima.Comment: Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Towards A Mean-Field Formulation Of The Babcock-Leighton Type Solar Dynamo. I. Alpha Coefficient Versus Durney's Double Ring Approach

We develop a model of the solar dynamo in which, on the one hand, we follow the Babcock-Leighton approach to include surface processes like the production of poloidal field from the decay of active regions, and, on the other hand, we attempt to develop a mean field theory that can be studied in quantitative detail. One of the main challenges in developing such models is to treat the buoyant rise of toroidal field and the production of poloidal field from it near the surface. We build up a dynamo model with two contrasting methods of treating buoyancy. In one method, we incorporate the generation of the poloidal field near the solar surface by Durney's procedure of double ring eruption. In the second method, the poloidal field generation is treated by a positive alpha-effect concentrated near the solar surface, coupled with an algorithm for handling buoyancy. The two methods are found to give qualitatively similar results.Comment: 32 pages, 27 figures, uses aastex.cls and epsfig.st

Quenching of Meridional Circulation in Flux Transport Dynamo Models

Guided by the recent observational result that the meridional circulation of the Sun becomes weaker at the time of the sunspot maximum, we have included a parametric quenching of the meridional circulation in solar dynamo models such that the meridional circulation becomes weaker when the magnetic field at the base of the convection zone is stronger. We find that a flux transport solar dynamo tends to become unstable on including this quenching of meridional circulation if the diffusivity in the convection zone is less than about 2 * 10^{11} cm^2/s. The quenching of alpha, however, has a stabilizing effect and it is possible to stabilize a dynamo with low diffusivity with sufficiently strong alpha-quenching. For dynamo models with high diffusivity, the quenching of meridional circulation does not produce a large effect and the dynamo remains stable. We present a solar-like solution from a dynamo model with diffusivity 2.8 * 10^{12} cm^2/s in which the quenching of meridional circulation makes the meridional circulation vary periodically with solar cycle as observed and does not have any other significant effect on the dynamo.Comment: Consistent with the published version. Solar Physics, in pres

Faraday effect : a field theoretical point of view

We analyze the structure of the vacuum polarization tensor in the presence of a background electromagnetic field in a medium. We use various discrete symmetries and crossing symmetry to constrain the form factors obtained for the most general case. From these symmetry arguments, we show why the vacuum polarization tensor has to be even in the background field when there is no background medium. Taking then the background field to be purely magnetic, we evaluate the vacuum polarization to linear order in it. The result shows the phenomenon of Faraday rotation, i.e., the rotation of the plane of polarization of a plane polarized light passing through this background. We find that the usual expression for Faraday rotation, which is derived for a non-degenerate plasma in the non-relativistic approximation, undergoes substantial modification if the background is degenerate and/or relativistic. We give explicit expressions for Faraday rotation in completely degenerate and ultra-relativistic media.Comment: 20 pages, Latex, uses axodraw.st

Statistical Properties of Turbulence: An Overview

We present an introductory overview of several challenging problems in the statistical characterisation of turbulence. We provide examples from fluid turbulence in three and two dimensions, from the turbulent advection of passive scalars, turbulence in the one-dimensional Burgers equation, and fluid turbulence in the presence of polymer additives.Comment: 34 pages, 31 figure

A model of the polarization position-angle swings in BL Lacertae objects

The polarization position-angle swings that have been measured in a number of BL Lacertae objects and highly variable quasars are interpreted in terms of shock waves which illuminate (by enhanced synchrotron radiation) successive transverse cross sections of a magnetized, relativistic jet. The jet is assumed to have a nonaxisymmetric magnetic field configuration of the type discussed in the companion paper on the equilibria of force-free jets. For a jet that is viewed at a small angle to the axis, the passage of a shock will give rise to an apparent rotation of the polarization position angle whose amplitude can be substantially larger than 180 deg. The effects of freely propagating shocks are compared with those of bow shocks which form in front of dense obstacles in the jet, and specific applications to 0727 - 115 and BL Lacertae are considered. In the case of 0727 - 115, it is pointed out that the nonuniformity of the swing rate and the apparent oscillations of the degree of polarization could be a consequence of relativistic aberration

The influence of the Coriolis force on flux tubes rising through the solar convection zone

In order to study the effect of the Coriolis force due to solar rotation on rising magnetic flux, the authors consider a flux ring, azimuthally symmetric around the rotation axis, starting from rest at the bottom of the convection zone, and then follow the trajectory of the flux ring as it rises. If it is assumed that the flux ring remains azimuthally symmetric during its ascent, then the problem can be described essentially in terms of two parameters: the value of the initial magnetic field in the ring when it starts, and the effective drag experienced by it. For field strengths at the bottom of the convection zone of order 10,000 G or less, it is found that the Coriolis force plays a dominant role and flux rings starting from low latitudes at the bottom are deflected and emerge at latitudes significantly poleward of sunspot zones