Devolution and Fiscal Decentralisation

Fiscal decentralisation represents the transfer of resources from higher to lower levels of government usually accompanied by an enhancement in responsibilities and functions of sub- national governments and greater autonomy in their budget making and financial decisions. The rising demand generally for decentralisation in developing countries in recent years is a consequence of the broader processes of globalisation, liberalisation and deregulation. Political imperatives for decentralisation have been created by the urge for more effective democratisation and the need to bring governments closer to the people for greater accountability and better articulation of their needs and preferences. In a number of countries, including Pakistan, the failure of central or state/provincial governments to adequately capture local preferences and provide basic services have strengthened the case for use of local governments as delivery agents, such that the production and distribution of services is carried down to the lowest unit of government capable of capturing the associated costs and benefits.

Hidden Subsidies

Many governments use price subsidisation (total costs less total revenues from user charges) to meet social protection objectives in lieu of, or in addition to, direct income transfers. Such subsidies may be perceived as influencing behaviour to further other socially desirable policies. For example, the price response induced by lowering the price of schooling will both lower the cost of living for the beneficiaries and also increase the investment in education more than a similar income transfer would achieve. The incidences of benefits from a general price subsidy are proportional to purchases and can be deduced from the pattern of expenditures. Some goods are inappropriate vehicles for redistribution since subsidies on them will not only accrue mainly to the rich they will actually increase inequality in welfare. It is therefore important to ensure that commodities chosen for price subsidisation are largely consumed by the lower income groups. Also, detailed data on such commodities should be made public to make the extent of subsidy easily tractable. In the case of Pakistan, the problem of lack of transparency of federal and provincial budgets is vividly demonstrated by the inability of such budgets to readily highlight the subsidy on the various economic and social services, which are essentially in the nature of ‘private’ goods, provided by such governments. This is not only a reflection of the problem of the nature of budgeting practices whereby, first, revenues and expenditures on different heads are shown separately and no account is made either of depreciation of assets or the costs of capital used to finance the acquisition of assets which yield a stream of services. Second, to the extent that the subsidies largely benefit the upper income groups, political compulsions dictate that such subsidies largely remain hidden.

Pro-poor Growth and Policies: The Asian Experience

The objective of this paper is to assemble on a systematic basis the available data on Asian countries and then analyse the relationship between growth and poverty reduction in a long-term perspective, as well as the impact of different macroeconomic variables on the intensity of this relationship. The results indicate that there is not only a strong positive relationship between growth and poverty reduction, but also that this relationship is highly variable across countries and time periods. The key macroeconomic determinants of the degree of pro-poor growth appear to be the rates of employment and agricultural growth. Inflation, at least up to a certain rate, does not impact poverty negatively, while the role of exports is essentially indirect through the contribution to the overall rate of economic growth. Examination of the change in policy stance of the Asian countries during the 1990s in relation to the 1980s demonstrates that on balance the mix of policies has not been pro-poor. The apparent sacrifice of growth in pursuit of macroeconomic stability has diminished the impact on poverty reduction. Given the relatively weak trade-off between inflation and growth with regard to the impact on poverty and the fact that inflation rates are currently low in the region, it is argued that countries can be more flexible in their policy stance with regard to the adoption of more growth-oriented as opposed to stabilisation policies. In particular, a case is made for resorting to a more expansionary counter-cyclical fiscal policy, led by higher levels of public investment, supported by appropriate monetary and exchange rate policies. The paper concludes with a detailed description of the policies designed to achieve faster agricultural development and greater employment generation.

Devolution and Fiscal Decentralisation

Fiscal decentralisation represents the transfer of resources from higher to lower levels of government usually accompanied by an enhancement in responsibilities and functions of sub- national governments and greater autonomy in their budget making and financial decisions. The rising demand generally for decentralisation in developing countries in recent years is a consequence of the broader processes of globalisation, liberalisation and deregulation. Political imperatives for decentralisation have been created by the urge for more effective democratisation and the need to bring governments closer to the people for greater accountability and better articulation of their needs and preferences. In a number of countries, including Pakistan, the failure of central or state/provincial governments to adequately capture local preferences and provide basic services have strengthened the case for use of local governments as delivery agents, such that the production and distribution of services is carried down to the lowest unit of government capable of capturing the associated costs and benefits

Hidden Subsidies

Many governments use price subsidisation (total costs less total revenues from user charges) to meet social protection objectives in lieu of, or in addition to, direct income transfers. Such subsidies may be perceived as influencing behaviour to further other socially desirable policies. For example, the price response induced by lowering the price of schooling will both lower the cost of living for the beneficiaries and also increase the investment in education more than a similar income transfer would achieve. The incidences of benefits from a general price subsidy are proportional to purchases and can be deduced from the pattern of expenditures. Some goods are inappropriate vehicles for redistribution since subsidies on them will not only accrue mainly to the rich they will actually increase inequality in welfare. It is therefore important to ensure that commodities chosen for price subsidisation are largely consumed by the lower income groups. Also, detailed data on such commodities should be made public to make the extent of subsidy easily tractable

Budgetary Consequences of the 7th NFC Award

The 7th NFC Award of 2009 has generally been recognised as a historic achievement of the present democratically elected government. Not only was consensus achieved after a gap of 12 years among the Federal and Provincial Governments but major strides have also been made in furthering the process of fiscal decentralisation in the country. The Federal Government will be transferring substantially more resources to the provinces by a major enhancement in the collective share of the latter from the divisible pool taxes. In addition, the provinces have agreed to a horizontal sharing formula that includes multiple criteria and promises greater fiscal equalisation in favour of the more backward provinces. Straight transfers have also been rationalised and the Federal Government has agreed to pay in instalments the substantial arrears that had accumulated under different heads

Fiscal Equalisation Among Provinces in the NFC Awards

Fiscal equalisation refers to attempts within a federal system of government to reduce fiscal disparities among jurisdictions, which emerge due to variation in sub-national jurisdictions ability to raise revenues to meet the public expenditure needs of their residents. This is because of an imbalance in the assignment of revenue sources to sub-national levels and their expenditure needs, given the allocation of the inter-governmental fiscal powers and responsibilities. In the Pakistani context, the need for transfers is highlighted by the fact that while provincial governments generate only about 8 percent of total national resources, their share in total public spending is 28 percent. Also the fiscal capacity of the four provinces varies, with the relatively more developed provinces being able to self-generate a higher proportion of their resource requirements. As such, transfers take place, according to the provisions of the National Finance Commission (NFC) awards, with the objective of removing both vertical and horizontal imbalances between own-revenues and expenditure

The Impact and Cost of Power Load Shedding to Domestic Consumers

The widespread and growing phenomenon of power load shedding has emerged as one of the principal supply-side constraints to growth of the economy of Pakistan. Not only has this led to significant losses of output, employment and exports but also during periods of high outages there have been large-scale protests, particularly in Punjab and KPK. Households have faced severe disruptions due to the high and growing incidence of load shedding. These have led to mass protests on streets resulting in disruption of other economic activities. As such, the economic return of reducing outages and of facilitating the process of adjustment to these outages is likely to be high. This paper provides an approach and methodology for quantifying cost of load shedding to households in Pakistan. It is organised as follows: Section 2 highlights some key trends in the power sector of Pakistan. Section 3 will present a detailed literature review on the methodology used for quantification of costs due to outages. Section 4 describes the methodology used for qualification of costs due to outages and for estimation of willingness to pay. Section 5 presents estimates of the cost of load shedding in the domestic sector of Pakistan. Finally, Section 6 highlights the major policy implications emerging from the research

Integrated Social-sector Macroeconometric Model for Pakistan

While the traditional neoclassical production model postulates that it is the physical inputs such as private capital, labour, land, and technology that are the key determinants of output and economic development, in recent years, however, the social sector variables are also considered to be critical, particularly for the long-run sustainable growth of the economy. If fact, what has been argued in the form of “new growth theories” is that social variables (e.g., education, health, knowledge, etc.) generate “positive externalities” and, thus, may facilitate and foster the process of economic growth and development. Recently, the World Bank, based on a broad cross-country study, found some very interesting results in the above context. According to the World Development Report (1991): about fifty percent of the factor productivity contribution to output growth comes not from traditional physical inputs (capital, labour and land) but is a residual factor.

What Explains the Current High Rate of Inflation in Pakistan?

One of the most significant developments in the current economic scene in Pakistan has been the sharp increase in the rate of inflation. The annual average rate of increase in the wholesale price index (WPI) during the first seven months (July-January 1994-95) of the current fiscal year has been about 19 percent as opposed to 11.3 percent during the same period last year. A similar increase was also witnessed in the consumer price index (CPI) which accelerated to 13 percent as opposed to 11.1 percent during the previous period. Such a sharp increase in prices in recent months has not only caused alarm in the academic circles but has equally disturbed the country’s chief executive, the Prime Minister. The recent surge of inflation is a matter of serious concern for a variety of reasons. First, Pakistan has been a low-inflation country as it has experienced price stability during the last three decades. The rate of inflation, as measured by an increase in the WPI, averaged 2.6 percent during the 1960s. The components of the WPI, i.e., food, raw materials, manufactures, and fuel and lubricants, also grew by an average rate ranging from 2.0 to 3.4 percent p.a. during then 1960s (see Table 1 for relevant statistics). The rate of inflation crossed the single-digit threshold during the 1970s. The WPI and its components increased at an annual average rate ranging from 12 to 18 percent. The double-digit inflation during the 1970s has been the result of two major oil shocks, a massive devaluation of currency, and devastating floods destroying agricultural crops. Pakistan returned to the fold of the single-digit inflation during the 1980s. The rate of inflation remained at the single-digit level during the first three years of the 1990s with the exception of 1990-91, when the rate of inflation increased to 11.7 percent as a result of the Gulf War. It is only during the outgoing fiscal year and in the current year that the rising inflation is posing a major threat to macroeconomic stability.