Baryon anomaly and strong color fields in Pb+Pb collisions at 2.76A TeV at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

With the HIJING/BBbar v2.0 heavy ion event generator, we explore the phenomenological consequences of several high parton density dynamical effects predicted in central Pb+Pb collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) energies. These include (1) jet quenching due to parton energy loss (dE/dx), (2) strangeness and hyperon enhancement due to strong longitudinal color field (SCF), and (3) enhancement of baryon-to-meson ratios due to baryon-anti-baryon junctions (JJbar) loops and SCF effects. The saturation/minijet cutoff scale p0(s)and effective string tension kappa(s,A) are constrained by our previous analysis of LHC p+p data and recent data on the charged multiplicity for Pb+Pb collisions reported by the ALICE collaboration. We predict the hadron flavor dependence (mesons and baryons) of the nuclear modification factor RAA(pT)$ and emphasize the possibility that the baryon anomaly could persist at the LHC up to pT=10 GeV, well beyond the range observed in central Au+Au collisions at RHIC energies.Comment: 25 pages, 8 figures, revtex4, text modifications, added references, accepted for publication Phys. Rev. C (2011

Predicting Financial Distress in a High-Stress Financial World: The Role of Option Prices as Bank Risk Metrics

The current financial crisis offers a unique opportunity to investigate the leading properties of market indicators in a stressed environment and their usefulness from a banking supervision perspective. One pool of relevant information that has been little explored in the empirical literature is the market for bank’s exchange-traded option contracts. In this paper, we first extract implied volatility indicators from the prices of the most actively traded option contracts on financial firms’ equity. We then examine empirically their ability to predict financial distress by applying survival analysis techniques to a sample of large US financial firms. We find that market indicators extracted from option prices significantly explain the survival time of troubled financial firms and do a better job in predicting financial distress than other time-varying covariates typically included in bank failure models. Overall, both accounting information and option prices contain useful information of subsequent financial problems and, more importantly, the combination produces good forecasts in a high-stress financial world, full of doubts and uncertainties.Financial distress; Financial system oversight; Market discipline; Options; Implied volatility; Survival analysis.