The influence of government ideology on monetary policy:New cross-country evidence based on dynamic heterogeneous panels

Using data of 23 OECD countries over the 1980–2005 period, we examine whether government ideology affects monetary policy, conditional on central bank independence. Unlike previous studies in this line of literature, we estimate central bank behavior using forward‐looking and real‐time data in Taylor rule models and use estimators that allow for heterogeneity across countries. Our models with heterogeneous slope coefficients for the full sample do not suggest partisan effects. We also do not find evidence that central bank behavior is conditioned by the interaction of the ideology of the incumbent government and the electoral calendar

Stein's method on Wiener chaos

We combine Malliavin calculus with Stein's method, in order to derive explicit bounds in the Gaussian and Gamma approximations of random variables in a fixed Wiener chaos of a general Gaussian process. We also prove results concerning random variables admitting a possibly infinite Wiener chaotic decomposition. Our approach generalizes, refines and unifies the central and non-central limit theorems for multiple Wiener-It\^o integrals recently proved (in several papers, from 2005 to 2007) by Nourdin, Nualart, Ortiz-Latorre, Peccati and Tudor. We apply our techniques to prove Berry-Ess\'een bounds in the Breuer-Major CLT for subordinated functionals of fractional Brownian motion. By using the well-known Mehler's formula for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroups, we also recover a technical result recently proved by Chatterjee, concerning the Gaussian approximation of functionals of finite-dimensional Gaussian vectors.Comment: 39 pages; Two sections added; To appear in PTR