Analysis of the time to sustained progression in Multiple Sclerosis using generalised linear and additive models

The course of multiple sclerosis (MS) is generally difficult to predict. This is due to the great inter-individual variability with respect to symptoms and disability status. An important prognostic endpoint for MS is the expected time to sustained disease progression. Using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) this endpoint is here defined as a rise of 1.0 or 0.5 compared to baseline EDSS (5.5) which is confirmed for at least six months. The goal of this paper was threefold. It aimed at identifying covariates which significantly influence sustained progression, determining size and form of the effect of these covariates and estimating the survival curves for given predictors. To this end a piecewise exponential model utilizing piecewise constant hazard rates and a Poisson model were devised. In order to improve and simplify these models a method for piecewise linear parameterization of non-parametric generalized additive models (GAMs) was applied. The models included fixed and random effects, the posterior distribution was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) as well as a penalized likelihood approach and variables were selected using Akaikes information criterium (AIC). The models were applied to data of placebo patients from worldwide clinical trials that are pooled in the database of the Sylvia Lawry Centre for Multiple Sclerosis Research (SLCMSR). Only with a pure exponential model and fixed effects, baseline EDSS and the number of relapses in the last 12 month before study entry had an effect on the hazard rate. For the piecewise exponential model with random study effects there was no effect of covariates on the hazard rate other than a slightly decreasing effect of time. This reflects the fact that unstable patients reach the event early and are therefore eliminated from the analysis (selection effect)

Study of V/STOL aircraft implementation. Volume 2: Appendices

An analysis of V/STOL aircraft implementation and utilization is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) short haul air transportation requirements, (2) available aircraft technology, (3) aircraft production requirements, (4) airport requirements, (5) roles and responsibilities, and (6) cost and funding

PDB3: USE OF BOOTSTRAP IN A COST-OF-ILLNESS STUDY TO DERIVE ACCURACY OF ESTIMATES

Farrando, Jordi;Febles, Maria Dolors ;Henrich, Jordi;Tarrasó, Olga ;Fuertes, J.C.;Pérez, S

Piezo-Polymer-Composite Unimorph Actuators for Active Cancellation of Flow Instabilities Across Airfoils

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.This article presents a smart device for active cancellation of flow instabilities. An array of two piezo unimorph actuators fabricated in piezo-polymer-composite technology is combined with a thin silicone membrane to mimic a movable wall with a closed surface. By locally displacing the thin membrane, a surface wave is generated that interferes with naturally occurring flow instabilities within the boundary layer of an airfoil. Using flow sensors and an intelligent control enables a destructive interference and therefore, an attenuation of natural flow instabilities. This leads to a delay of transition. The boundary layer remains laminar which means drag is reduced. Within the next pages, the setup of the device with actuators, membrane, sensors, and control is introduced. The main focus of this article is on actuator design, modeling, and implementation for wind tunnel experiments. Results of actuator characterization are presented. The non-linear behavior of the piezoactuator (harmonic distortions and impact of high electric fields) is investigated in detail. This study concludes with the results obtained in wind tunnel experiments which prove the functionality of the presented approach. A maximal attenuation of natural occurring flow instabilities of 80% is achieved.DFG, SPP 1207, Strömungsbeeinflussung in der Natur und Techni

Humanization of mathematical education for non-core pecialties

Работа посвящена вопросам гуманизации процесса преподавания высшей математики для непрофильных вузов. В качестве примера представлены фрагменты разработанного учебного пособия для лабораторных работ по курсу «Математика» для непрофильных специальностей в МГПУ.This paper addresses the humanization of higher mathematics teaching for non-core universities. As an example, presents fragments developed a training manual for laboratory work on the course "Mathematics" for non-core specialties in the Moscow State Pedagogical University

Atomic diffusion in liquid gallium and gallium-nickel alloys probed by quasielastic neutron scattering and molecular dynamic simulations

The atomic mobility in liquid pure gallium and a gallium-nickel alloy with 2 at% of nickel is studied experimentally by incoherent quasielastic neutron scattering. The integral diffusion coefficients for all-atom diffusion are derived from the experimental data at different temperatures. DFT-based ab-initio molecular dynamics (MD) is used to find numerically the diffusion coefficient of liquid gallium at different temperatures, and numerical theory results well agree with the experimental findings at temperatures below 500 K. Machine learning force fields derived from ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) overestimate within a small 6% error the diffusion coefficient of pure gallium within the genuine AIMD. However, they better agree with experiment for pure gallium and enable the numerical finding of the diffusion coefficient of nickel in the considered melted alloy along with the diffusion coefficient of gallium and integral diffusion coefficient, that agrees with the corresponding experimental values within the error bars. The temperature dependence of the gallium diffusion coefficient follows the Arrhenius law experimentally for all studied temperatures and below 500 K also in the numerical simulations. However, can be well described alternatively by an Einstein-Stokes dependence with the metallic liquid viscosity following the Arrhenius law, especially for the MD simulation results at all studied temperatures. Moreover, a novel variant of the excess entropy scaling theory rationalized our findings for gallium diffusion. Obtained values of the Arrhenius activation energies are profoundly different in the competing theoretical descriptions, which is explained by different temperature-dependent prefactors in the corresponding theories. The diffusion coefficient of gallium is significantly reduced (at the same temperature) in a melted alloy with natural nickel, even at a tiny 2 at% concentration of nickel, as compared with its pure gallium value. This highly surprising behavior contradicts the existing excess entropy scaling theories and opens a venue for further research

The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours

We use a standard quantitative business cycle model with nominal price and wage rigidities to estimate two measures of economic ineffciency in recent U.S. data: the output gap - the gap between the actual and effcient levels of output - and the labor wedge - the wedge between households' marginal rate of substitution and firms' marginal product of labor. We establish three results. (i ) The output gap and the labor wedge are closely related, suggesting that most ineffciencies in output are due to the ineffcient allocation of labor. (ii ) The estimates are sensitive to the structural interpretation of shocks to the labor market, which is ambiguous in the model. (iii ) Movements in hours worked are essentially exogenous, directly driven by labor market shocks, whereas wage rigidities generate a markup of the real wage over the marginal rate of substitution that is acyclical. We conclude that the model fails in two important respects: it does not give clear guidance concerning the effciency of business cycle uctuations, and it provides an unsatisfactory explanation of labor market and business cycle dynamics