Informing aerial total counts with demographic models: population growth of Serengeti elephants not explained purely by demography

Conservation management is strongly shaped by the interpretation of population trends. In the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, aerial total counts indicate a striking increase in elephant abundance compared to all previous censuses. We developed a simple age-structured population model to guide interpretation of this reported increase, focusing on three possible causes: (1) in situ population growth, (2) immigration from Kenya, and (3) differences in counting methodologies over time. No single cause, nor the combination of two causes, adequately explained the observed population growth. Under the assumptions of maximum in situ growth and detection bias of 12.7% in previous censuses, conservative estimates of immigration from Kenya were between 250 and 1,450 individuals. Our results highlight the value of considering demography when drawing conclusions about the causes of population trends. The issues we illustrate apply to other species that have undergone dramatic changes in abundance, as well as many elephant populations

Routine delivery of artemisinin-based combination treatment at fixed health facilities reduces malaria prevalence in Tanzania: an observational study

BACKGROUND Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been promoted as a means to reduce malaria transmission due to their ability to kill both asexual blood stages of malaria parasites, which sustain infections over long periods and the immature derived sexual stages responsible for infecting mosquitoes and onward transmission. Early studies reported a temporal association between ACT introduction and reduced malaria transmission in a number of ecological settings. However, these reports have come from areas with low to moderate malaria transmission, been confounded by the presence of other interventions or environmental changes that may have reduced malaria transmission, and have not included a comparison group without ACT. This report presents results from the first large-scale observational study to assess the impact of case management with ACT on population-level measures of malaria endemicity in an area with intense transmission where the benefits of effective infection clearance might be compromised by frequent and repeated re-infection. METHODS A pre-post observational study with a non-randomized comparison group was conducted at two sites in Tanzania. Both sites used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy as a first-line anti-malarial from mid-2001 through 2002. In 2003, the ACT, artesunate (AS) co-administered with SP (AS + SP), was introduced in all fixed health facilities in the intervention site, including both public and registered non-governmental facilities. Population-level prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia and gametocytaemia were assessed using light microscopy from samples collected during representative household surveys in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. FINDINGS Among 37,309 observations included in the analysis, annual asexual parasitaemia prevalence in persons of all ages ranged from 11% to 28% and gametocytaemia prevalence ranged from <1% to 2% between the two sites and across the five survey years. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to adjust for age, socioeconomic status, bed net use and rainfall. In the presence of consistently high coverage and efficacy of SP monotherapy and AS + SP in the comparison and intervention areas, the introduction of ACT in the intervention site was associated with a modest reduction in the adjusted asexual parasitaemia prevalence of 5 percentage-points or 23% (p < 0.0001) relative to the comparison site. Gametocytaemia prevalence did not differ significantly (p = 0.30). INTERPRETATION The introduction of ACT at fixed health facilities only modestly reduced asexual parasitaemia prevalence. ACT is effective for treatment of uncomplicated malaria and should have substantial public health impact on morbidity and mortality, but is unlikely to reduce malaria transmission substantially in much of sub-Saharan Africa where individuals are rapidly re-infected.Financial support for IMPACT-Tz came primarily from CDC, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Wellcome Trust

Registrar wellness in Botswana: Measuring burnout and identifying ways to improve wellness

Background. Burnout during registrar training is high, especially in resource-limited settings where stressors are intensified. Burnout leads to decreased quality of life for doctors, poor job and patient satisfaction, and difficulty retaining doctors.Objectives. Primary: to measure burnout among registrars working at Princess Marina Hospital in Gaborone, Botswana. Secondary: to determine factors contributing to burnout and identify potential wellness interventions.Methods. The validated Maslach Burnout Inventory was used to measure the degree of emotional exhaustion, depersonalisation and personal accomplishment. Work-related difficulties and potential wellness interventions were explored through multiple-choice and open-ended questions.Results. Of 40 eligible registrars, 20 (50%) completed the survey. High levels of burnout were reported for emotional exhaustion in 65% (13/20), depersonalisation in 45% (9/20), and personal accomplishment in 35% (7/20) of registrars. A high degree of burnout was reported by 75% (15/20) of registrars in one or more domains. In the previous 7 days, registrars worked an average of 77 hours, took 1.5 overnight calls, slept 5.7 hours per night, and 53% (10/19) had ≥1 of their patients die. Five (25%) registrars considered leaving Botswana to work in another country, which correlated with those with the highest degree of burnout. The most common frustrations included insufficient salary and limited medical resources. Suggested interventions included improved mentorship and wellness lectures.Conclusions. There is a high degree of burnout, especially emotional exhaustion, among registrars. Encouragingly, most registrars have a desire to work in Botswana after training. Future research on improving registrar wellness in low-resource settings is urgently needed

Asthma Prevalence, Knowledge, and Perceptions among Secondary School Pupils in Rural and Urban Costal Districts in Tanzania.

Asthma is a common chronic disease of childhood that is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of asthma among secondary school pupils in urban and rural areas of coast districts of Tanzania. The study also aimed to describe pupils' perception towards asthma, and to assess their knowledge on symptoms, triggers, and treatment of asthma. A total of 610 pupils from Ilala district and 619 pupils from Bagamoyo district formed the urban and rural groups, respectively. Using a modified International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) questionnaire, a history of "diagnosed" asthma or the presence of a wheeze in the previous 12 months was obtained from all the studied pupils, along with documentation of their perceptions regarding asthma. Pupils without asthma or wheeze in the prior 12 months were subsequently selected and underwent a free running exercise testing. A >= 20% decrease in the post-exercise Peak Expiratory Flow Rate (PEFR) values was the criterion for diagnosing exercise-induced asthma. The mean age of participants was 16.8 (+/-1.8) years. The prevalence of wheeze in the past 12 months was 12.1% in Bagamoyo district and 23.1% in Ilala district (p < 0.001). Self-reported asthma was found in 17.6% and 6.4% of pupils in Ilala and Bagamoyo districts, respectively (p < 0.001). The prevalence of exercise-induced asthma was 2.4% in Bagamoyo, and 26.3% in Ilala (P < 0.002). In both districts, most information on asthma came from parents, and there was variation in symptoms and triggers of asthma reported by the pupils. Non-asthmatic pupils feared sleeping, playing, and eating with their asthmatic peers. The prevalence rates of self-reported asthma, wheezing in the past 12 months, and exercise-induced asthma were significantly higher among urban than rural pupils. Although bronchial asthma is a common disease, pupils' perceptions about asthma were associated with fear of contact with their asthmatic peers in both rural and urban schools

Increasing voluntary medical male circumcision uptake among adult men in Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated a demand-creation intervention to increase voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) uptake among men aged 20-34 years in Tanzania, to maximise short-term impact on HIV incidence. METHODS: A cluster randomized controlled trial stratified by region was conducted in 20 outreach sites in Njombe and Tabora regions. The sites were randomized 1 : 1 to receive either a demand-creation intervention package in addition to standard VMMC outreach, or standard VMMC outreach alone. The intervention package included enhanced public address messages, peer promotion by recently circumcised men, facility setup to increase privacy, and engagement of female partners in demand creation. The primary outcome was the proportion of VMMC clients aged 20-34 years. FINDINGS: Overall, 6251 and 3968 VMMC clients were enrolled in intervention and control clusters, respectively. The proportion of clients aged 20-34 years was slightly greater in the intervention than control arm [17.7 vs. 13.0%; prevalence ratio = 1.36; 95% confidence intervals (CI):0.9-2.0]. In Njombe region, the proportion of clients aged 20-34 years was similar between arms but a significant two-fold difference was seen in Tabora region (P value for effect modification = 0.006). The mean number of men aged 20-34 years (mean difference per cluster = 97; 95% CI:40-154), and of all ages (mean difference per cluster = 227, 95% CI:33-420) were greater in the intervention than control arm. CONCLUSION: The intervention was associated with a significant increase in the proportion of clients aged 20-34 years in Tabora but not in Njombe. The intervention may be sensitive to regional factors in VMMC programme scale-up, including saturation

Presumptive treatment of fever cases as malaria: help or hindrance for malaria control?

BACKGROUND: Malaria incidence has been reported to be falling in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. This fall appears to have started before the widespread introduction of insecticide-treated nets. In the new era of calls to eliminate and eradicate malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, exploring possible causes for this fall seem pertinent. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: The authors explore an argument that presumptive treatment of fever cases as malaria may have played a role in reducing transmission of malaria by the prophylactic effect of antimalarials and their widespread use. This strategy, which is already in practise is termed Opportunistic Presumptive Treatment (OPT). TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: Further comparison of epidemiological indicators between areas with OPT and more targeted treatment is required. If data suggest a benefit of OPT, combining long acting antimalarials that have an anti-gametocyticidal activity component plus using high levels of vector control measures may reduce transmission, prevent resistant strains spreading and be easily implemented. IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: OPT is practised widely by presumptive treatment of fever in health facilities and home management of fever. Improving diagnosis using rapid diagnostic tests and thus reducing the number of doses of antimalarials given may have counter intuitive effects on transmission in the context of elimination of malaria in high to moderate transmission settings

Piloting the Global Subsidy: The Impact of Subsidized Artemisinin-Based Combination Therapies Distributed through Private Drug Shops in Rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND: WHO estimates that only 3% of fever patients use recommended artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), partly reflecting their high prices in the retail sector from where many patients seek treatment. To overcome this challenge, a global ACT subsidy has been proposed. We tested this proposal through a pilot program in rural Tanzania. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Three districts were assigned to serve either as a control or to receive the subsidy plus a package of supporting interventions. From October 2007, ACTs were sold at a 90% subsidy through the normal private supply chain to intervention district drug shops. Data were collected at baseline and during intervention using interviews with drug shop customers, retail audits, mystery shoppers, and audits of public and NGO facilities. The proportion of consumers in the intervention districts purchasing ACTs rose from 1% at baseline to 44.2% one year later (p<0.001), and was significantly higher among consumers purchasing for children under 5 than for adults (p = 0.005). No change in ACT usage was observed in the control district. Consumers paid a mean price of $0.58 for ACTs, which did not differ significantly from the price paid for sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, the most common alternative. Drug shops in population centers were significantly more likely to stock ACTs than those in more remote areas (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A subsidy introduced at the top of the private sector supply chain can significantly increase usage of ACTs and reduce their retail price to the level of common monotherapies. Additional interventions may be needed to ensure access to ACTs in remote areas and for poorer individuals who appear to seek treatment at drug shops less frequently. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN39125414

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of a Demand Creation Intervention to Increase Uptake of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision in Tanzania: Spending More to Spend Less.

BACKGROUND: Although voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of HIV acquisition, demand for services is lower among men in most at-risk age groups (ages 20-34 years). A randomized controlled trial was conducted to assess the effectiveness of locally-tailored demand creation activities (including mass media, community mobilization, and targeted service delivery) in increasing uptake of campaign-delivered VMMC among men aged 20-34 years. We conducted an economic evaluation to understand the intervention's cost and cost-effectiveness. SETTING: Tanzania (Njombe and Tabora regions). METHODS: Cost data were collected on surgery, demand creation activities, and monitoring and supervision related to VMMC implementation across clusters in both trial arms, as well as start-up activities for the intervention arms. The Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool was used to estimate the number of HIV infections averted and related cost savings, given the total VMMCs per cluster. Disability-adjusted life years were calculated and used to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Client load was higher in the intervention arms than in the control arms: 4394 vs. 2901 in Tabora and 1797 vs. 1025 in Njombe, respectively. Despite additional costs of tailored demand creation, demand increased more than proportionally: mean costs per VMMC in the intervention arms were $62 in Tabora and$130 in Njombe, and in the control arms $70 and$191, respectively. More infections were averted in the intervention arm than in the control arm in Tabora (123 vs. 67, respectively) and in Njombe (164 vs. 102, respectively). The intervention dominated the control because it was both less costly and more effective. Cost savings were observed in both regions stemming from the antiretroviral treatment costs averted as a result of the VMMCs performed. CONCLUSIONS: Spending more to address local preferences as a way to increase uptake of VMMC can be cost-saving