Cosmological parameter inference with Bayesian statistics

Bayesian statistics and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have found their place in the field of Cosmology. They have become important mathematical and numerical tools, especially in parameter estimation and model comparison. In this paper, we review some fundamental concepts to understand Bayesian statistics and then introduce MCMC algorithms and samplers that allow us to perform the parameter inference procedure. We also introduce a general description of the standard cosmological model, known as the $\Lambda$CDM model, along with several alternatives, and current datasets coming from astrophysical and cosmological observations. Finally, with the tools acquired, we use an MCMC algorithm implemented in python to test several cosmological models and find out the combination of parameters that best describes the Universe.Comment: 30 pages, 17 figures, 5 tables; accepted for publication in Universe; references adde

Diffuse interstellar bands in fullerene planetary nebulae: the fullerenes - diffuse interstellar bands connection

We present high-resolution (R~15000) VLT/UVES optical spectra of two planetary nebulae (PNe; Tc 1 and M 1-20) where C60 (and C70) fullerenes have already been found. These spectra are of high-quality (S/N > 300) for PN Tc 1, which permits us to search for the expected electronic transitions of neutral C60 and diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs). Surprisingly, we report the non-detection of the most intense optical bands of C60 in Tc 1, although this could be explained by the low C60 column density estimated from the C60 infrared bands if the C60 emission peaks far away from the central star. The strongest and most common DIBs in both fullerene PNe are normal for their reddening. Interestingly, the very broad 4428 A DIB and the weaker 6309 A DIB are found to be unusually intense in Tc 1. We also report the detection of a new broad (FWHM~5 A) unidentified band at ~6525 A. We propose that the 4428 A DIB (probably also the 6309 A DIB and the new 6525 A band) may be related to the presence of larger fullerenes (e.g., C80, C240, C320, and C540) and buckyonions (multishell fullerenes such as C60@C240 and C60@C240@C540) in the circumstellar envelope of Tc 1.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics Letters (6 pages, 4 figures, and 1 Table

A search for hydrogenated fullerenes in fullerene-containing planetary nebulae

Detections of C60 and C70 fullerenes in planetary nebulae (PNe) of the Magellanic Clouds and of our own Galaxy have raised the idea that other forms of carbon such as hydrogenated fullerenes (fulleranes like C60H36 and C60H18), buckyonions, and carbon nanotubes, may be widespread in the Universe. Here we present VLT/ISAAC spectra (R ~600) in the 2.9-4.1 microns spectral region for the Galactic PNe Tc 1 and M 1-20, which have been used to search for fullerene-based molecules in their fullerene-rich circumstellar environments. We report the non-detection of the most intense infrared bands of several fulleranes around ~3.4-3.6 microns in both PNe. We conclude that if fulleranes are present in the fullerene-containing circumstellar environments of these PNe, then they seem to be by far less abundant than C60 and C70. Our non-detections together with the (tentative) fulleranes detection in the proto-PN IRAS 01005+7910 suggest that fulleranes may be formed in the short transition phase between AGB stars and PNe but they are quickly destroyed by the UV radiation field from the central star.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics (7 pages, 3 figures, and 3 Tables

Trade Shoks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Oil-Exporting Economy

In this paper we analyze the role of trade shocks in shaping aggregate fluctuations in Venezuela from 1950 to 1995. To this end a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy whose main productive activity rests in the exports of a single basic product is specified. Shocks to the terms of trade which are directly associated to oil price changes are modelled as a foreign transfer. We find that this approach gives predictions that are consistent with the time series properties of Venezuela when i) the income efect of consumption more than compensates the substitution effect that generates the oil transfer and, ii) there is imperfect capital mobility. In particular, our model specification captures the observed patterns of the main aggregates after the oil resource boom of 1974.Trade shocks, Aggregate fuctuations, Emerging economies.