The International Transmission and Effects of Fiscal Policies

In recent years the world economy has been subject to large and unsyncronized changes in fiscal policies, high and volatile real rates of tnterest, large fluctuations in real exchange rates, and significant variations in private-sector spending. This paper reviews some of the key facts characterizing the effects of fiscal policies during the first half of the 1980s and provides a simple analytical framework suitable for the interpretation of these facts. The analytical framework builds on a two-country model of the world economy which is applied to the analysis of the transmission and effects of various changes in the time profile of taxes and of government spending. Generally, the predictions of the model concerning the relation among the intercountry patterns of consumption, long and short-term real rates of interest, real exchange rates and fiscal policies are consistent with the stylized facts.

Fiscal Policies, Debt, and International Economic Interdependence

This paper deals with the relation between government spending and real rates of interest as well as with the international transmission of fiscal policies.The dependence of the patterns of consumption in one country on fiscal policiesin the rest of the world are examined. For this purpose a general equilibrium model which is characterized by fully integrated world capital marketsis constructed, economic agents behave rationally, and government policies are constrained to obey the intertemporal solvency requirements. It is shown that the effects of changes 'in countries' net debt or position as well as the effects offiscal policies can be analyzed by reference to a multitude of "transfer problems criteria", which are familiar from the theory of international economic transfers. In the present case the impact of policies depends on the relations among the spending patterns of domestic and foreign private sectors; of domestic and foreign governments, as well as of domestic and foreign saving propensities.The analysis draws a distinction between permanent and transitory policies as well as between current policies and expected future policies.A transitory current fiscal spending, must crowd out the foreign private sector and, thereby,result in a negative transmission. However, a transitory future rise in government spending induces an immediate increase in foreign private sector's consumption and thereby results in a positive current transmission. These responses are reflected in the current account of the balance-of-payments, in changes in the net debtor-creditor positions, and in complex changes in the term structure of interest rates. It is also shown that with full integration of capital markets,fiscal policies may exert different qualitative effects on real rates of interestin different countries since, depending on the structural parameters, the relative prices of non-traded goods, and thereby the price indices, might be negatively correlated between countries.

Fiscal Policies and Real Exchange Rates in the World Economy

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policies on the evolution of real rates of interest and real exchange rates in the interdependent world economy. We construct an analytical framework suitable for a detailed examination of the various channels through which these variables are influenced by government spending and by tax policies. The analytical framework employs a general equilibrium approach highlighting the roles played by wealth effects and by temporal and intertemporal substitution effects. The general principle illustrated by the analysis of the dynamic effects of budget deficits is that the consequences of temporary tax policies stretch beyond the period during which the temporary policies are in effect. The counterpart to these dynamic implications is the rise in the economy's external debt induced by the budget deficit the service of which stretches into the indefinite future. By series of examples, allowing for both distortionary and non-distortionary taxes and for various patterns of government spending, it is shown that the quantitative and qualitative effects of fiscal policies on real exchange rates, real interest rates, debt accumulation and the like depend critically on the commodity composition of government spending and its intertemporal allocations on the one hand, and on the details of government debt issue and tax structure, including the timing of taxes and borrowing and the types of taxes used to finance the budget, on the other hand.

The 43GHz SiO maser in the circumstellar envelope of the AGB star R Cassiopeiae

We present multi-epoch, total intensity, high-resolution images of 43GHz, v=1, J=1-0 SiO maser emission toward the Mira variable R Cas. In total we have 23 epochs of data for R Cas at approximate monthly intervals over an optical pulsation phase range from 0.158 to 1.78. These maps show a ring-like distribution of the maser features in a shell, which is assumed to be centred on the star at a radius of 1.6 to 2.3 times the stellar radii. It is clear from these images that the maser emission is significantly extended around the star. At some epochs a faint outer arc can be seen at 2.2 stellar radii. The intensity of the emission waxes and wanes during the stellar phase. Some maser features are seen infalling as well as outflowing. We have made initial comparisons of our data with models by Gray et. al. (2009).Comment: 12 pages, 14 figure

The International Transmission of Fiscal Expenditures and Budget Deficits in the World Economy

This paper analyses the effects of fiscal policies on rates of interest and wealth in the world economy. Uncertainty concerning the length of life yields an equilibrium in which private and social rates of discount differ and budget deficits exert real effects. It is shown that a current budget deficit(resulting from a tax cut) raises world rates of interest. On the other hand the direction of the effect of an expected future deficit on the short-term rate of interest depends on whether the country is having a surplus or a deficit inits current account of the balance of payments. If it runs a deficit in the current account then the short-term rate of interest rises and vice versa; the future rate of interest, however, must rise. It is also shown that budget deficits raise domestic wealth and lower foreign wealth and thus result in a negative transmission. In the long run, a higher steady-state value of government debt raises the steady-state world rate of interest but its effect on the long-run value of foreign wealth is ambiguous. The effects of changes in government spending depend on both the timing and the patterns of spending. A transitory (balanced-budget) rise in current government spending raises the current rate of interest and lowers domestic and foreign wealth while a transitory future rise in government spending lowers the current rate of interest, lowers domestic wealth and raises foreign wealth. A permanent rise in government spending lowers the rate of interest if the current account of the balance of payments is in deficit, and vice versa. Finally, the model is generalized to a multi-commodity world and the impact of policies are shown to depend on comparison among various spending and saving propensities of private sectors and of governments.

Deficits with Distortionary Taxes: International Dimensions

This paper deals with the international effects of budget deficits arising from distortionary tax and transfer policies. The analysis demonstrates that the consequences of tax policies and the characteristics of the international transmission mechanism depend critically on the precise composition of taxes. Specifically, the international effects of budget deficits of a given size differ sharply according to the types of taxes used to generate the deficit. We show that in determining the effects of taxes it is useful to divide the various distortionary taxes into two groups: those that stimulate current external borrowing (national dissaving) and those that stimulate current external lending (national saving). A pro-borrowing tax policy raises the world rate of interest while a pro-lending tax policy lowers it. The resulting change in the rate of interest is the channel through which the effects of budget deficits are transmitted to the rest of the world. The key propositions are illustrated by a series of examples involving consumption taxes (VAT), taxes on income of labor and capital and taxes on international borrowing.

The Mundell-Flemming Model: A Quarter Century Later

The Mundell-Fleming model of international macroeconomics originated in the writings of Robert A. Mundell and J. Marcus Fleming in the early 1960s. The key contribution of the model has been a systematic analysis of the role played by international capital mobility in determining the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies under alternative exchange rate regimes. During the ensuing quarter century, the model was extended in various directions and is still the main "work horse" of traditional open-economy macroeconomics. This paper develops an exposition that integrates the various facets of the model and incorporates its extensions into a unified analytical framework. Attention is given to the distinction between short-run and long-run effects of policies, the implication of debt and tax financing of government expenditures, the role of the exchange rate regime in this regard, and debt revaluation and trade-balance revaluation effects associated with exchange rate changes. The resulting integration clarifies the key economic mechanisms operating in the Mundell-Fleming model and helps to identify its limitations. Among these is the neglect of intertemporal budget constraints and of the consequences of forward- looking behavior consistent with this constraint. The formulation in the paper casts the model in a manner that facilitates comparisons with more modern approaches. In so doing, the exposition provides a bridge between the traditional and the more modern approaches to international macroeconomics.

The Limited Viability of Dual Exchange-Rate Regimes

This paper examines the viability of dual exchange-rate regimes. Typically, under such a regime the exchange rates applicable to current-account(commercial) transactions and to capital-account (financial) transactions differ from each other. This difference may be determined in the free market if the authorities peg the commercial exchange rate and set a binding quota on external borrowing, or it may result from direct pegging of both exchange rates. The analysis starts with a specification of the characteristics of the distortion introduced by the exchange-rate premium (that is, the percentage discrepancy between the financial and the commercial exchange rates), and then provides explicit formula for the equilibrium premium, for its evolution over time and for the welfare cost induced by the distortion. The paper outlines the set of policy options consistent with sustaining a permanently viable dual exchange-rate system and highlights the severe constraints that intertemporal solvency requirements of the private sector and of the government impose on the long-run viability of the regime. The paper concludes with an analysis of the monetary changes associated with dual exchange-rate policies and draws the implications of such a regime for the intertemporal distribution of taxes and for the intergenerational distribution of welfare.