Ambiguity in a Real Option Game

In this paper we study a two-player investment game with a first mover advantage in continuous time with stochastic payoffs, driven by a geometric Brownian motion. One of the players is assumed to be ambiguous with maxmin preferences over a strongly rectangular set of priors. We develop a strategy and equilibrium concept allowing for ambiguity and show that equilibira can be preemptive (a player invests at a point where investment is Pareto dominated by waiting) or sequential (one player invests as if she were the exogenously appointed leader). Following the standard literature, the worst case prior for the ambiguous player if she is the second mover is obtained by setting the lowest possible trend in the set of priors. However, if the ambiguous player is the first mover, then the worst case prior can be given by either the lowest or the highest trend in the set of priors. This novel result shows that "worst case prior" in a setting with geometric Brownian motion and kappa-ambiguity does not equate to "lowest trend"

Deep reinforcement learning for drone navigation using sensor data

Mobile robots such as unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) can be used for surveillance, monitoring and data collection in buildings, infrastructure and environments. The importance of accurate and multifaceted monitoring is well known to identify problems early and prevent them escalating. This motivates the need for flexible, autonomous and powerful decision-making mobile robots. These systems need to be able to learn through fusing data from multiple sources. Until very recently, they have been task specific. In this paper, we describe a generic navigation algorithm that uses data from sensors on-board the drone to guide the drone to the site of the problem. In hazardous and safety-critical situations, locating problems accurately and rapidly is vital. We use the proximal policy optimisation deep reinforcement learning algorithm coupled with incremental curriculum learning and long short-term memory neural networks to implement our generic and adaptable navigation algorithm. We evaluate different configurations against a heuristic technique to demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency. Finally, we consider how safety of the drone could be assured by assessing how safely the drone would perform using our navigation algorithm in real-world scenarios

Genetic and phenotypic spectrum associated with IFIH1 gain-of-function

IFIH1 gain‐of‐function has been reported as a cause of a type I interferonopathy encompassing a spectrum of autoinflammatory phenotypes including Aicardi–Goutières syndrome and Singleton Merten syndrome. Ascertaining patients through a European and North American collaboration, we set out to describe the molecular, clinical and interferon status of a cohort of individuals with pathogenic heterozygous mutations in IFIH1. We identified 74 individuals from 51 families segregating a total of 27 likely pathogenic mutations in IFIH1. Ten adult individuals, 13.5% of all mutation carriers, were clinically asymptomatic (with seven of these aged over 50 years). All mutations were associated with enhanced type I interferon signaling, including six variants (22%) which were predicted as benign according to multiple in silico pathogenicity programs. The identified mutations cluster close to the ATP binding region of the protein. These data confirm variable expression and nonpenetrance as important characteristics of the IFIH1 genotype, a consistent association with enhanced type I interferon signaling, and a common mutational mechanism involving increased RNA binding affinity or decreased efficiency of ATP hydrolysis and filament disassembly rate

Genetic and phenotypic spectrum associated with IFIH1 gain-of-function

IFIH1 gain-of-function has been reported as a cause of a type I interferonopathy encompassing a spectrum of autoinflammatory phenotypes including Aicardi–Goutières syndrome and Singleton Merten syndrome. Ascertaining patients through a European and North American collaboration, we set out to describe the molecular, clinical and interferon status of a cohort of individuals with pathogenic heterozygous mutations in IFIH1. We identified 74 individuals from 51 families segregating a total of 27 likely pathogenic mutations in IFIH1. Ten adult individuals, 13.5% of all mutation carriers, were clinically asymptomatic (with seven of these aged over 50 years). All mutations were associated with enhanced type I interferon signaling, including six variants (22%) which were predicted as benign according to multiple in silico pathogenicity programs. The identified mutations cluster close to the ATP binding region of the protein. These data confirm variable expression and nonpenetrance as important characteristics of the IFIH1 genotype, a consistent association with enhanced type I interferon signaling, and a common mutational mechanism involving increased RNA binding affinity or decreased efficiency of ATP hydrolysis and filament disassembly rate

Mutations in DCC cause isolated agenesis of the corpus callosum with incomplete penetrance

Brain malformations involving the corpus callosum are common in children with developmental disabilities. We identified DCC mutations in four families and five sporadic individuals with isolated agenesis of the corpus callosum (ACC) without intellectual disability. DCC mutations result in variable dominant phenotypes with decreased penetrance, including mirror movements and ACC associated with a favorable developmental prognosis. Possible phenotypic modifiers include the type and location of mutation and the sex of the individual

Long-term contracting in hydro-thermal electricity generation: Welfare and environmental impact

We consider electricity generation industries where thermal operators imperfectly compete with hydro operators that manage a (scarce) water stock stored in reservoirs over a natural cycle. We explore how the exercise of intertemporal market power affects social welfare and environmental quality. We show that, as compared to the outcome of spot markets, long-term contracting either exacerbates or alleviates price distortions, depending upon the consumption pattern over the water cycle. Moreover, it induces a second-order environmental effect that, in the presence of a thermal competitive fringe, is critically related to the thermal market shares in the different periods of the cycle. We conclude by providing policy insights