Causality and Association: The Statistical and Legal Approaches

This paper discusses different needs and approaches to establishing ``causation'' that are relevant in legal cases involving statistical input based on epidemiological (or more generally observational or population-based) information. We distinguish between three versions of ``cause'': the first involves negligence in providing or allowing exposure, the second involves ``cause'' as it is shown through a scientifically proved increased risk of an outcome from the exposure in a population, and the third considers ``cause'' as it might apply to an individual plaintiff based on the first two. The population-oriented ``cause'' is that commonly addressed by statisticians, and we propose a variation on the Bradford Hill approach to testing such causality in an observational framework, and discuss how such a systematic series of tests might be considered in a legal context. We review some current legal approaches to using probabilistic statements, and link these with the scientific methodology as developed here. In particular, we provide an approach both to the idea of individual outcomes being caused on a balance of probabilities, and to the idea of material contribution to such outcomes. Statistical terminology and legal usage of terms such as ``proof on the balance of probabilities'' or ``causation'' can easily become confused, largely due to similar language describing dissimilar concepts; we conclude, however, that a careful analysis can identify and separate those areas in which a legal decision alone is required and those areas in which scientific approaches are useful.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-STS234 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Total focussing method for volumetric imaging in immersion non destructive evaluation

This paper describes the use of a 550 (25x22) element 2MHz 2D piezoelectric composite array in immersion mode to image an aluminum test block containing a collection of artificial defects. The defects included a 1mm diameter side-drilled hole, a collection of 1mm slot defects with varying degrees of skew to the normal and a flat bottomed hole. The data collection was carried out using the full matrix capture; a scanning procedure was developed to allow the operation of the large element count array through a conventional 64-channel phased array controller. A 3D TFM algorithm capable of imaging in a dual media environment was implemented in MATLAB for the offline processing the raw scan data. This algorithm facilitates the creation of 3D images of defects while accounting for refraction effects at material boundaries. In each of the test samples interrogated the defects, and their spatial position, are readily identified using TFM. Defect directional information has been characterized using VTFM for defect exhibiting angles up to and including 45o of skew

The Lugard plant collection

Volume: XXVII

Barley diseases in Western Australia

BARLEY DISEASES caused by pathogenic organisms are capable of reducing yields considerably. The recognition of disease is important so that control measures can then be taken at the appropriate time

The effect of straw on the emergence of wheat seedlings

The emergence of wheat seedlings was decreased substantially when seed was planted close to oaten straw. When the grain was placed a 1/4 inch above a straw layer emergence was depressed by more than half

Oat diseases in Western Australia

OVER ONE MILLION acres of oats are grown yearly in this State, making the crop next in importance to wheat. Pathogenic organisms are responsible for considerable reductions in yield, yet losses can be minimized if control measures are taken

Wheat diseases in Western Australia

DISEASES caused by pathogenic organisms can seriously affect the yield of wheat. Some diseases are comparatively rare whereas others occur over a large area of the wheatbelt year after year