Multiregional Methods for Subnational Population Projections

Most projections of urban and rural populations are generated by models that are fundamentally nonspatial and uniregional in character. Migration streams are treated as net flows, and urban and rural populations are projected independently of each other. This paper argues for a multiregional spatial perspective that incorporates directional gross migration flows. Differences between the two approaches are identified and problems of bias and inconsistency are discussed

Multistate Population Projections

This paper develops a procedure for carrying out multiregional population projections disaggregated by region of birth. Two classes of projections are developed: "native-independent" projections that assign to all residents of a region identical probabilities of transition and "native-dependent" projections that further disaggregate such probabilities by region of birth. The results underscore the importance of incorporating place-of-birth-specific information in demographic analysis

Phytochemical study on Berberis sibirica Pall.

From the aerial parts (700g) of berberis sibirica pall. 6 isoquinoline alkaloids of protoberberine, protopine, benzophenantridine and proaporphine type were isolated. The known alkaloids (-)-tetrahydropseudocoptisine, pseudoprotopine, (+)-chelidonine and (+)-glaziovine are new for the family berberidaceae. from the aerial part ii (3.9 kg) 14 isoquinoline alkaloids of aporphine, proaporphine, protoberberine, protopine, benzylisoquinoline, bisbenzylisoquinoline,proaporphine-benzylisoquinoline and simple isoquinolin type were isolated and identified. The aporphine alkaloid 1-o-methylisotebaidine and simple isoquinoline dehydrocorypalline have been found for the first time in the family of berberidaceae. From the roots of b. sibirica 10 isoquinoline alkaloids of protoberberine, benzylisoquinoline, bisbenzylisoquinoline, aporphine-benzylisoquinoline and proaporphine-benzylisoquinoline type were isolated. 1,10-di-omethylpakistanine has been reported for the first time as a natural alkaloid. The known alkaloids (-) -isothalidezine and (+)-armepavine have been found for the first time in the family berberidaceae. All structures were determined by physical and spectral data.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5564/mjc.v12i0.185 Mongolian Journal of Chemistry Vol.12 2011: 117-12

Alkaloids from Sedum telephium L.

The crude alkaloid mixtures from the aerial parts S.telephium was analyzed by GC-MS method. As a result 14 compounds, including 6 alkaloids were characterized. 3-methyl-2-carbethoxyindole (4.730%), 2-(2-hydroxyphenyl) benzothiazole (1.576%) and N,4, 5-trimethyl phenyl-1,2-diamine, (1.217%) were in higher contents. One sulfur-containing alkaloid 2-(2-hydroxyphenyl) benzothiazole has been identified. These six alkaloids are described for the first time from this plant.Mongolian Journal of Chemistry 16 (42), 2015, 44-4

How are time-dependent childbearing intentions realized? Realization, postponement, abandonment, bringing forward

Our study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit the realization of fertility intentions. The analysis uses data collected in the first two waves of a Hungarian longitudinal survey. Fertility intentions recorded at the first wave pertain to the subsequent 3-year period, just similar to the behavior variable measuring the realization of intentions, i.e., a birth within the 3-year period in question. For this analysis, we used the respondents’ demographic, socio-structural, and orientational traits recorded at the first interview. Our findings show that age, parity, and partnership play a determining role in the realization of fertility intentions, but employment status, religious affiliation, and overall life satisfaction all exhibit significant effects. A marked gender difference was detected not only with regard to employment status but in the area of values and orientations as well.L’objectif de notre étude est d’identifier les facteurs qui facilitent ou inhibent la réalisation des intentions de fécondité. L’analyse s’appuie sur les deux premières vagues d’une enquête longitudinale menée en Hongrie. Les intentions de fécondité recueillies dans le cadre de la première vague concernent la période des trois années à venir, de la même façon que la variable de comportement mesurant la réalisation des intentions, à savoir, une naissance survenue au cours de cette même période. Les caractéristiques démographiques et socio-structurelles, de même que certaines dispositions personnelles recueillies lors du premier entretien ont été utilisées dans l’analyse. Nos résultats indiquent qu’à la fois l’âge, la parité, et la situation de couple jouent un rôle capital dans la réalisation des intentions et aussi que la situation d’emploi, l’appartenance religieuse et le niveau de satisfaction par rapport à la vie exercent une influence significative. Une différence prononcée entre hommes et femmes est mise en évidence en matière de situation d’emploi et également dans le domaine des valeurs et des dispositions personnelles

Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention-Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel.

How do changes in employment uncertainty matter for fertility? Empirical studies on the impact of employment uncertainty on reproductive decision-making offer a variety of conclusions, ranging from gender and socio-economic differences in the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions and behaviour, to the effect of employment on changes in fertility intentions. This article analyses the association between a change in subjective employment uncertainty and fertility intentions and behaviour by distinguishing male and female partners' employment uncertainty, and examines the variation in these associations by education. Using a sample of men and women living in a couple from the Swiss Household Panel (SHP 2002-2011), we examine through multinomial analysis how changes in employment uncertainty and selected socio-demographic factors are related to individual childbearing decisions. Our results show strong gendered effects of changes in employment uncertainty on the revision of reproductive decisions among the highly educated population

Childbearing intentions in a low fertility context: the case of Romania

This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to find out the predictors of fertility intentions in Romania, a low-fertility country. We analyse how attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control relate to the intention to have a child among childless individuals and one-child parents. Principal axis factor analysis confirms which items proposed by the Generation and Gender Survey (GGS 2005) act as valid and reliable measures of the suggested theoretical socio-psychological factors. Four parity-specific logistic regression models are applied to evaluate the relationship between the socio-psychological factors and childbearing intentions. Social pressure emerges as the most important aspect in fertility decision-making among childless individuals and one-child parents, and positive attitudes towards childbearing are a strong component in planning for a child. This paper also underlines the importance of the region-specific factors when studying childbearing intentions: planning for the second child significantly differs among the development regions, representing the cultural and socio-economic divisions of the Romanian territory

Religious socialisation and fertility: transition to third birth in the Netherlands

Although previous studies have demonstrated that religious people in Europe have larger families, the role played by religious socialisation in the context of contemporary fertility behaviour has not yet been analysed in detail. This contribution specifically looks at the interrelation between religious socialisation and current religiosity and their impact on the transition to the third child for Dutch women. It is based on data of the first wave of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (2002–2004) and uses event history analysis. The transitions to first, second and third birth are modelled jointly with a control for unobserved heterogeneity. The findings provide evidence for an impact of women’s current church attendance as well as religious socialisation measured by their fathers’ religious affiliation, when they were teenagers. A religious family background remains influential even when a woman has stopped attending church. The effects of religious indicators strengthen over cohorts. Moreover, the combined religious make-up of the respondent’s parents also significantly determines the progression to the third child.S’il est bien établi que les croyants en Europe ont plus d’enfants que les autres, le rôle de la socialisation religieuse dans le contexte de la fécondité contemporaine n’a pas encore été analysé à ce jour. Cette étude s’intéresse au lien entre la socialisation religieuse et la religiosité actuelle, et à leur impact sur la probabilité d’agrandissement de deux à trois enfants de la descendance des femmes néerlandaises. Les données exploitées sont celles de la première vague du Panel Néerlandais d’Etude de la Parenté (the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study, 2002–2004). A l’aide des techniques de l’analyse des biographies, les probabilités d’agrandissement de rang 1, rang 2 et rang 3 ont été modélisées de façon conjointe, en contrôlant l’hétérogénéité non observée. Les résultats mettent en évidence l’impact de la fréquentation actuelle de l’église par les femmes et de leur socialisation religieuse, mesurée par l’appartenance religieuse de leur père quand elles étaient adolescentes. Il apparaît que la religiosité du contexte familial exerce une influence, même quand la femme ne fréquente plus l’église, et que les effets des indicateurs de pratique religieuse se renforcent d’une génération à l’autre. Enfin, l’appartenance religieuse conjointe des parents de la femme détermine significativement la probabilité d’avoir un troisième enfant