Fluctuations in the Alpha-Effect and Grand Solar Minima

Parameters of a special kind of \alpha-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates evidence the presence of the Babcock-Leighton \alpha-effect on the Sun. Fluctuations of the \alpha-effect are also estimated. The fluctuation amplitude appreciably exceeds the mean value, and the characteristic time for the fluctuations is comparable to the period of the solar rotation. Fluctuations with the parameters found are included in a numerical model for the solar dynamo. Computations show irregular changes in the amplitudes of the magnetic cycles on time scales of centuries and millennia. The calculated statistical characteristics of the grand solar minima and maxima agree with the data on solar activity over the Holocene.Comment: To appear in Astronomy Reports, 20 pages, 9 figure

Current status of the temperature and humidity regime of the troposphere in the Siberian sector in different circulation periods

The paper studies the long-term dynamics of air temperature and relative humidity anomaly indices in the surface layer and at different levels of the troposphere in Siberia and neighboring regions (European and Far Eastern sectors). As the main cause of the observed variations in climatic parameters we considered circulation factors, which were taken into account using the typification of macrocirculation processes proposed by B.L. Dzerdzeevsky. Seasonal differences were revealed in the distribution of anomaly indices and the area occupied by anomalies of different signs of annual and monthly mean temperature and relative air humidity, which are most pronounced during circulation periods of increased duration of meridional northern processes in the Siberian sector and in the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. The highest rates of change in the temperature regime in the Siberian sector over recent decades have been observed at the level of the isobaric surface AT–700 hPa (3 km), which affects the advective-dynamic factors of surface cyclo- and frontogenesis, as well as the processes of cloud formation and precipitation. In general, an increase in the heat content of the lower and middle troposphere and a decrease in the relative moisture content near the tropopause can be accompanied by an increase in the amount of the potential energy and convective instability energy reserves and can lead to an increase in climate risks in the Siberian sector

Economic fourth order three-stage method for solving systems of second order differential equations with special structure

An explicit embedded pair of methods for systems of second order ordinary equations with special structure is considered. Two-parametric families of methods of orders four and three with automatic step-size control are constructed. The numeric comparison to known embedded Runge–Kutta pairs of the same order is hel

Sudden drop of fractal dimension of electromagnetic emissions recorded prior to significant earthquake

The variation of fractal dimension and entropy during a damage evolution process, especially approaching critical failure, has been recently investigated. A sudden drop of fractal dimension has been proposed as a quantitative indicator of damage localization or a likely precursor of an impending catastrophic failure. In this contribution, electromagnetic emissions recorded prior to significant earthquake are analysed to investigate whether they also present such sudden fractal dimension and entropy drops as the main catastrophic event is approaching. The pre-earthquake electromagnetic time series analysis results reveal a good agreement to the theoretically expected ones indicating that the critical fracture is approaching

Does the Babcock--Leighton Mechanism Operate on the Sun?

The contribution of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism to the generation of the Sun's poloidal magnetic field is estimated from sunspot data for three solar cycles. Comparison of the derived quantities with the A-index of the large-scale magnetic field suggests a positive answer to the question posed in the title of this paper.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, to apper in Astronomy Letter

Solar dynamo model with nonlocal alpha-effect

The first results of the solar dynamo model that allows for the diamagnetic effect of inhomogeneous turbulence and the nonlocal alpha-effect due to the rise of magnetic loops are discussed. The nonlocal alpha-effect is not subject to the catastrophic quenching related to the conservation of magnetic helicity. Given the diamagnetic pumping, the magnetic fields are concentrated near the base of the convection zone, although the distributed-type model covers the entire thickness of the convection zone. The magnetic cycle period, the equatorial symmetry of the field, its meridional drift, and the polar-to-toroidal field ratio obtained in the model are in agreement with observations. There is also some disagreement with observations pointing the ways of improving the model.Comment: To appear in Astronomy Letters, 10 pages, 5 figure