A random forest algorithm to improve the Lee–Carter mortality forecasting: impact on q-forward

Increased life expectancy in developed countries has led researchers to pay more attention to mortality projection to anticipate changes in mortality rates. Following the scheme proposed in Deprez et al. (Eur Actuar J 7(2):337–352, 2017) and extended by Levantesi and Pizzorusso (Risks 7(1):26, 2019), we propose a novel approach based on the combination of random forest and two-dimensional P-spline, allowing for accurate mortality forecasting. This approach firstly provides a diagnosis of the limits of the Lee–Carter mortality model through the application of the random forest estimator to the ratio between the observed deaths and their estimated values given by a certain model, while the two-dimensional P-spline are used to smooth and project the random forest estimator in the forecasting phase. Further considerations are devoted to assessing the demographic consistency of the results. The model accuracy is evaluated by an out-of-sample test. Finally, we analyze the impact of our model on the pricing of q-forward contracts. All the analyses have been carried out on several countries by using data from the Human Mortality Database and considering the Lee–Carter model

Italian immunization calendar implementation: Time to optimize number of vaccination appointments?

In the Italian vaccination schedule, at least six vaccination appointments are scheduled in the first year of life. This implies more discomfort for both the patient and the parents. This was particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, during which several appointments were missed. A UK experience with three injectable vaccines and an oral one co-administered at the same appointment (4-in-1) at 2 and 4 months of age showed interesting results. The vaccination coverage was high, consistent with previous practice, and no relevant increase in adverse events was reported. Translating the UK experience into the Italian context would not be immediate, due to several organizational and social issues. Nevertheless, this option warrants some further considerations, which are discussed in this manuscript

Prevention and contrast of child abuse and neglect in the practice of European paediatricians: a multi-national pilot study

Background: Child abuse and neglect, or maltreatment, is a serious public health problem, which may cause long-term effects on children's health and wellbeing and expose them to further adulthood vulnerabilities. Studies on child maltreatment performed in Europe are scarce, and the number of participants enrolled relatively small. The aim of this multi-national European pilot study, was to evaluate the level of understanding and perception of the concepts of child abuse and neglect by European paediatricians working in different medical settings, and the attitude toward these forms of maltreatment in their practice. Methods: The study was performed by a cross-sectional, descriptive, online survey, made available online to European paediatricians members of 50 national paediatric, who belonged to four different medical settings: hospital, family care, university centres and private practice. The questionnaire, designed as a multiple choice questions survey, with a single answer option consisted of 22 questions/statements. Frequency analyses were applied. Most of the data were described using univariate analysis and Chi-squared tests were used to compare the respondents and answers and a significance level of p ≤ 0.05 applied. Results: Findings show that European paediatricians consider the training on child maltreatment currently provided by medical school curricula and paediatric residency courses to be largely insufficient and continuing education courses were considered of great importance to cover educational gaps. Physical violence was recognized by paediatricians mostly during occasional visits with a significant correlation between detecting abuse during an occasional visit and being a primary care paediatrician. Results also showed a reluctance by paediatricians to report cases of maltreatment to the competent judicial authorities. Conclusions: Data of this study may provide useful contribution to the current limited knowledge about the familiarity of European paediatricians with child maltreatment and their skills to recognize, manage and contrast abusive childhood experiences in their practice. Finally, they could provide local legislators and health authorities with information useful to further improve public health approaches and rules able to effectively address shared risk and protective factors, which could prevent child abuse and neglect from ever occurring

Structural and connectivity parameters reveal spared connectivity in young patients with non-progressive compared to slow-progressive cerebellar ataxia

INTRODUCTION: Within Pediatric Cerebellar Ataxias (PCAs), patients with non-progressive ataxia (NonP) surprisingly show postural motor behavior comparable to that of healthy controls, differently to slow-progressive ataxia patients (SlowP). This difference may depend on the building of compensatory strategies of the intact areas in NonP brain network. METHODS: Eleven PCAs patients were recruited: five with NonP and six with SlowP. We assessed volumetric and axonal bundles alterations with a multimodal approach to investigate whether eventual spared connectivity between basal ganglia and cerebellum explains the different postural motor behavior of NonP and SlowP patients. RESULTS: Cerebellar lobules were smaller in SlowP patients. NonP patients showed a lower number of streamlines in the cerebello-thalamo-cortical tracts but a generalized higher integrity of white matter tracts connecting the cortex and the basal ganglia with the cerebellum. DISCUSSION: This work reveals that the axonal bundles connecting the cerebellum with basal ganglia and cortex demonstrate a higher integrity in NonP patients. This evidence highlights the importance of the cerebellum-basal ganglia connectivity to explain the different postural motor behavior of NonP and SlowP patients and support the possible compensatory role of basal ganglia in patients with stable cerebellar malformation

Accidental finding of a toothpick in the porta hepatis during laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Unintentional ingestion of a toothpick is not an uncommon event. Often the ingested toothpicks spontaneously pass through the gut without sequelae. However, serious complications can happen when these sharp objects migrate through the gastrointestinal wall.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>In the current report, we describe the case of a 37-year-old Caucasian woman with an incidental finding of a toothpick in the porta hepatis during laparoscopic cholecystectomy for symptomatic gall stones.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Toothpick ingestion is not an uncommon event and can predispose patients to serious complications. In this particular case, the toothpick was only discovered at the time of unrelated surgery. Therefore, it was important during surgery to exclude any related or missed injury to the adjacent structures by this sharp object.</p

Quality assessment, variability and reproducibility of anatomical measurements derived from T1-weighted brain imaging: The RIN–Neuroimaging Network case study

Initiatives for the collection of harmonized MRI datasets are growing continuously, opening questions on the reliability of results obtained in multi-site contexts. Here we present the assessment of the brain anatomical variability of MRI-derived measurements obtained from T1-weighted images, acquired according to the Standard Operating Procedures, promoted by the RIN-Neuroimaging Network. A multicentric dataset composed of 77 brain T1w acquisitions of young healthy volunteers (mean age = 29.7 ± 5.0 years), collected in 15 sites with MRI scanners of three different vendors, was considered. Parallelly, a dataset of 7 “traveling” subjects, each undergoing three acquisitions with scanners from different vendors, was also used. Intra-site, intra-vendor, and inter-site variabilities were evaluated in terms of the percentage standard deviation of volumetric and cortical thickness measures. Image quality metrics such as contrast-to-noise and signal-to-noise ratio in gray and white matter were also assessed for all sites and vendors. The results showed a measured global variability that ranges from 11% to 19% for subcortical volumes and from 3% to 10% for cortical thicknesses. Univariate distributions of the normalized volumes of subcortical regions, as well as the distributions of the thickness of cortical parcels appeared to be significantly different among sites in 8 subcortical (out of 17) and 21 cortical (out of 68) regions of i nterest in the multicentric study. The Bland-Altman analysis on “traveling” brain measurements did not detect systematic scanner biases even though a multivariate classification approach was able to classify the scanner vendor from brain measures with an accuracy of 0.60 ± 0.14 (chance level 0.33)

MRI data quality assessment for the RIN - Neuroimaging Network using the ACR phantoms

PURPOSE: Generating big-data is becoming imperative with the advent of machine learning. RIN-Neuroimaging Network addresses this need by developing harmonized protocols for multisite studies to identify quantitative MRI (qMRI) biomarkers for neurological diseases. In this context, image quality control (QC) is essential. Here, we present methods and results of how the RIN performs intra- and inter-site reproducibility of geometrical and image contrast parameters, demonstrating the relevance of such QC practice. METHODS: American College of Radiology (ACR) large and small phantoms were selected. Eighteen sites were equipped with a 3T scanner that differed by vendor, hardware/software versions, and receiver coils. The standard ACR protocol was optimized (in-plane voxel, post-processing filters, receiver bandwidth) and repeated monthly. Uniformity, ghosting, geometric accuracy, ellipse’s ratio, slice thickness, and high-contrast detectability tests were performed using an automatic QC script. RESULTS: Measures were mostly within the ACR tolerance ranges for both T1- and T2-weighted acquisitions, for all scanners, regardless of vendor, coil, and signal transmission chain type. All measurements showed good reproducibility over time. Uniformity and slice thickness failed at some sites. Scanners that upgraded the signal transmission chain showed a decrease in geometric distortion along the slice encoding direction. Inter-vendor differences were observed in uniformity and geometric measurements along the slice encoding direction (i.e. ellipse’s ratio). CONCLUSIONS: Use of the ACR phantoms highlighted issues that triggered interventions to correct performance at some sites and to improve the longitudinal stability of the scanners. This is relevant for establishing precision levels for future multisite studies of qMRI biomarkers

Multi-centre and multi-vendor reproducibility of a standardized protocol for quantitative susceptibility Mapping of the human brain at 3T

Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping (QSM) is an MRI-based technique allowing the non-invasive quantification of iron content and myelination in the brain. The RIN – Neuroimaging Network established an optimized and harmonized protocol for QSM across ten sites with 3T MRI systems from three different vendors to enable multicentric studies. The assessment of the reproducibility of this protocol is crucial to establish susceptibility as a quantitative biomarker. In this work, we evaluated cross-vendor reproducibility in a group of six traveling brains. Then, we recruited fifty-one volunteers and measured the variability of QSM values in a cohort of healthy subjects scanned at different sites, simulating a multicentric study. Both voxelwise and Region of Interest (ROI)-based analysis on cortical and subcortical gray matter were performed. The traveling brain study yielded high structural similarity (∼0.8) and excellent reproducibility comparing maps acquired on scanners from two different vendors. Depending on the ROI, we reported a quantification error ranging from 0.001 to 0.017 ppm for the traveling brains. In the cohort of fifty-one healthy subjects scanned at nine different sites, the ROI-dependent variability of susceptibility values, of the order of 0.005–0.025 ppm, was comparable to the result of the traveling brain experiment. The harmonized QSM protocol of the RIN – Neuroimaging Network provides a reliable quantification of susceptibility in both cortical and subcortical gray matter regions and it is ready for multicentric and longitudinal clinical studies in neurological and pychiatric diseases

Scalable design of an IMS cross-flow micro-generator/ion detector

Ion-mobility spectrometry (IMS) is an analytical technique used to separate and identify ionized gas molecules based on their mobility in a carrier buffer gas. Such methods come in a large variety of versions that currently allow ion identification at and above the millimeter scale. Here, we present a design for a cross-flow-IMS method able to generate and detect ions at the sub-millimeter scale. We propose a novel ion focusing strategy and tested it in a prototype device using Nitrogen as a sample gas, and also with simulations using four different sample gases. By introducing an original lobular ion generation localized to a few ten of microns and substantially simplifying the design, our device is able to keep constant laminar flow conditions for high flow rates. In this way, it avoids the turbulences in the gas flow, which would occur in other ion-focusing cross-flow methods limiting their performance at the sub-millimeter scale. Scalability of the proposed design can contribute to improve resolving power and resolution of currently available cross-flow methods.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, revised regular paper, minor correction