Trivariate Burr-III copula with applications to income data

In this work, Bivariate Burr-III copula is extended to the trivariate case. This copula seems to be very general and analytically manageable and it provides an alternative to the commonly employed elliptical copulas (such as the Gaussian or the Stutent's t ones) since they have, roughly, the same number of parameters. Several applications to income and wine data are described in the paper. They show that the Trivariate Burr-III copula is, in general, able to capture the dependence structure implicit in observed trivariate data. Moreover, they show that the third-order interaction parameter results, in some cases, significant at 1\% 1 % significance level while, in other cases, it can be removed from the fitted model. The ability of the Trivariate Burr-III copula in representing the dependence structure implicit in the considered data is compared with the ones of other well known copulas: the Clayton copula, the t copula, and the Skew-t copula. It results that the Trivariate Burr-III copula provides a good fitting and turns out to be the best performer in fitting the considered wine data but, on income data, the best performers are the t and Skew-t copulas. The over-performance of the last two copulas on income data is probably due to their ability in representing right-tail dependence (a kind of dependence that is not taken into account by the Trivariate Burr-III copula)

Pandemic data quality modelling: a Bayesian approach in the Italian case

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels ofcials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial for policymakers to always have a frm grasp on what is the current state of the pandemic, and envision how the number of infections and possible deaths is going to evolve shortly. However, as in many other situations involving compulsory registration of sensitive data from multiple collectors, cases might be reported with errors, often with delays deferring an up-to-date view of the state of things. Errors in collecting new cases afect the overall mortality, resulting in excess deaths reported by ofcial statistics only months later. In this paper, we provide tools for evaluating the quality of pandemic mortality data. We accomplish this through a Bayesian approach accounting for the excess mortality pandemics might bring with respect to the normal level of mortality in the population

Pandemic Data Quality Modelling: A Bayesian Approach = Modellazione della qualit`a dei dati pandemici: un approccio bayesiano

When dealing with pandemics like COVID-19, it is crucial for policymakers to constantly monitor the emergency. Correct data reporting is a hard task during pandemics, and errors affect the overall mortality, resulting in excess deaths in official statistics. In this work, we provide tools for evaluating the quality of pandemic mortality data. We accomplish this through a spatio-temporal Bayesian approach accounting for the bias implicitly contained in the data

Use of a glucomannan polymer to reduce the effects of mycotoxin-contaminated diets in finishing pigs

The use of feed additives with mycotoxin adsorption capacity is a common strategy for controlling negative effects of mycotoxins in swine production systems. However, adsorbents that may results very effective under experimental conditions, i.e. when feed contamination level is rather high, do not necessarily retain their efficacy when tested under field conditions feed with generally low mycotoxin contamination. In this study, the effects of diets artificially contaminated with aflatoxin B1 or ochratoxin A on fattening performance and serum chemistry of fattening pigs are investigated. Moreover, the ability of a commercial glucomannan polymer (Gm polimer) to reduce or eliminate the effects of the contaminated feeds is tested. Thirty heavy pigs (BW = 110±10.6 kg) were fed 6 diets (n = 5 pigs/diet) for 4 weeks until slaughtering. Diets were: control without toxin added (C); added with 0.02 ppm of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1); added with 0.05 ppm of ochratoxin A (OTA); other three diets as the previous but the addition of 2.0 g/kg of Gm polymer (C-GM, AFB1-GM, OTA-GM). Daily weight gain (ADG) and Feed efficiency ratio (FE) were measured every two weeks. Data were analyzed with a two-way ANOVA that included the fixed effect of diet, time and their interaction. After the first 2 weeks the ADG did not differ significantly between the diets, even if the ADG of AFB1 diet was about 20% lower than AFB1-Gm or C. In the last 2 weeks the ADG of AFB1 diet was significantly lover than the other diets (P<0.01) and was about one-half of the values reported for the same group in the first period. The contamination with ochratoxin A did not affect fattening performance of pigs during the whole experimental period. No damages were found in kidneys of all diets. Moreover, no evidence of association between observed liver damages and different diets was found. Finally, no differences between experimental diets were evidenced for the haematological parameters

A novel BRCA2 splice variant identified in a young woman

Background: BRCA1/2 VUSs represent an important clinical issue in risk assessment for the breast/ovarian cancer families (HBOC) families. Among them, some occurring within the intron-exon boundary may lead to aberrant splicing process by altering or creating de novo splicing regulatory elements or unmasking cryptic splice site. Defining the impact of these potential splice variants at functional level is important to establish their pathogenic role. Methods: Genomic DNA was extracted from peripheral blood sample of a young woman affected with breast cancer belonging to a HBOC family and the entire coding regions of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes were amplified using the Ion AmpliSeq BRCA1 and BRCA2 Panel. The BRCA2 c.682-2delA variant has been characterized by RT-PCR analysis performed on mRNA extracted from blood and lymphoblastoid cell line. Results: We demonstrated that a novel BRCA2 c.682-2delA variant at the highly conserved splice consensus site in intron 8 disrupts the canonical splice acceptor site generating a truncated protein as predicted by several bioinformatics tools. Segregations analysis in the family and LOH performed on proband breast cancer tissue further confirmed its classification as pathogenic variant. Conclusion: Combining different methodologies, we characterized this new BRCA2 variant and provided findings of clinical utility for its classification as pathogenic variant

Machine milking management and milk nitrogen fractions in primiparous ewes

Little work has been carried out on management techniques to reduce stress of first machine milking in ewes. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of milking parlour training before weaning on sheep milk yield and milk protein fractions. One week before weaning, an experimental group (EG) was introduced into the machine milking parlour and hand-milked once a day, to adapt them to the new environment and noise of the milking machine, while a control group (CG) was hand-milked once a day in a traditional fold parlour until weaning. After weaning, both groups were machine milked, separately, twice a day in the milking parlour. Milk yield and nitrogen fractions were recorded for the first 10 days of machine milking. Differences between samplings within group were observed for all parameters considered. Only on the first day of machine milking, differences between groups occurred for total nitrogen, total protein and casein. Higher content of nitrogen fractions in the milk of EG was due to its lower milk production. In fact, daily production of nitrogen fractions was higher in CG than in EG. High variability for most parameters was observed during the first 5 days of machine milking in both groups. A week of training to machine milking parlour was not enough to reduce the negative effects of weaning and machine milking stresses on primiparous ewes. (interaction?

Modeling provincial Covid-19 epidemic data in Italy using an adjusted time-dependent SIRD model

In this paper we develop a predictive model for the spread of COVID-19 infection at a provincial (i.e. EU NUTS-3) level in Italy by using official data from the Italian Ministry of Health integrated with data extracted from daily official press conferences of regional authorities and from local newspaper websites. This integration is mainly concerned with COVID-19 cause specific death data which are not available at NUTS-3 level from open official data data channels. An adjusted time-dependent SIRD model is used to predict the behavior of the epidemic, specifically the number of susceptible, infected, deceased and recovered people. Predictive model performance is evaluated using comparison with real data

Nucleosynthetic osmium isotope anomalies in acid leachates of the Murchison meteorite

We present osmium isotopic results obtained by sequential leaching of the Murchison meteorite, which reveal the existence of very large internal anomalies of nucleosynthetic origin. The Os isotopic anomalies are correlated, and can be explained by the variable contributions of components derived from the s, r and p-processes of nucleosynthesis. Much of the s-process rich osmium is released by relatively mild leaching, suggesting the existence of an easily leachable s-process rich presolar phase, or alternatively, of a chemically resistant r-process rich phase. The s-process composition of Os released by mild leaching diverges slightly from that released by aggressive digestion techniques, perhaps suggesting that the presolar phases attacked by these differing procedures condensed in different stellar environments. The correlation between 190Os and 188Os can be used to constrain the s-process 190Os/188Os ratio to be 1.275 pm 0.043. Such a ratio can be reproduced in a nuclear reaction network for a MACS value for 190Os of ~200 pm 22 mbarn at 30 keV. We also present evidence for extensive internal variation of 184Os abundances in the Murchison meteorite. This suggests that p process rich presolar grains (e.g., supernova condensates) may be present in meteorites in sufficient quantities to influence the Os isotopic compositions of the leachates.Comment: 40 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Earth and Planetary Science Letter

Comparative phenotypic and functional analyses of the effects of autologous plasma and recombinant human macrophage-colony stimulating factor (M-CSF) on porcine monocyte to macrophage differentiation

Abstract Porcine monocyte-derived macrophages (moMΦ) have been employed as a model cell in numerous studies of the porcine immune system. However, the lack of a standardized method for moMΦ differentiation hampers the comparison of results coming from the use of different laboratory protocols. In this study we compared the use of varying concentrations of autologous plasma (10, 20 and 30% v/v) or recombinant human macrophage-colony stimulating factor (hM-CSF; 50, 100, and 200 ng/ml) to differentiate porcine monocytes into macrophages. Changes in cell morphology and surface marker expression were assessed by confocal microscopy and flow cytometry. Macrophage differentiation was evaluated by analysing TNF-α response to LPS stimulation and determining cytokine secretion patterns under both basal conditions and after classical and alternative activation. The effects of the differentiation methods on metabolic activity and susceptibility to infection with the myelotropic African swine fever virus (ASFV) were also evaluated. Monocytes cultured using the different culture conditions tested augmented in dimension and cellular complexity, but increasing porcine plasma concentrations resulted in a dose dependent enhancement in granularity and a marked pleomorphism. As expected, CD163, MHC class II DR and CD203a expression were up-regulated in both hM-CSF (M-CSF-moMΦ) and autologous plasma cultured macrophages (AP-moMΦ), although a lower percentage of CD163+ cells were found following differentiation with high percentages of porcine plasma. We observed enhanced number of viable cells using high concentration of hM-CSF compared to porcine plasma, suggesting a proliferative effect. Irrespective of differentiation conditions, monocyte differentiation into macrophages resulted in an increased susceptibility to ASFV and yielded larger amounts of LPS-induced TNF-α. AP-moMΦ showed a higher basal release of IL-1RA compared to those cultured with hM-CSF and displayed a reduced ability to respond to classical activation, suggesting that the use of high percentages of porcine plasma led to the acquisition of a M2-like phenotype. We conclude that all the protocols tested in this study can be considered as suitable to produce porcine moMΦ, although the use of hM-CSF provides high responsiveness to M1 polarization. Since a higher phenotypic and functional inter-animal variability was observed in AP-moMΦ, we propose that the use of low concentration of hM-CSF should be adopted as the method of choice to provide a better reproducibility between experiments