Do followers really matter in Stackelberg competition?

In this note, we consider a generalized T−stage Stackelberg oligopoly. We provide a proof and an interpretation that under the two necessary and sufficient conditions of linear aggregate demand and identical constant marginal costs, followers do not matter for leaders. Leaders act as rational myopic agents, voluntarily ignoring the number of followers and remaining stages, thereby behaving as Cournotian oligopolists. Strategies of incumbent firms are invariant to entry of new cohorts. Their profits can be studied by the way of two discount factors: the first impacting markup and the second impacting output supply. Some implications in terms of welfare and convergence toward competitive equilibrium are derived.Leader’s markup discount factor, linear economy, follower’s output discount factor, myopic behavior

The Stackelberg equilibrium as a consistent conjectural equilibrium

We consider a static game with conjectural variations where some firms make conjectures while others do not. Two propositions are proved. We first show that there exists a continuum of conjectural variations such that the conjectural equilibrium locally coincides with the Stackelberg equilibrium (Proposition 1). Second, we define the conditions under which a conjectural equilibrium is a locally consistent equilibrium (i.e. such that conjectures are fulfilled). The concept of (local) consistency is restricted to firms making conjectures. Two conditions on consistency are featured: consistency within a cohort and consistency among cohorts. The Stackelberg equilibrium fulfills only the latter condition (Proposition 2). An example is provided.Consistent conjectural variations, reaction functions, Stackelberg competition

Climate change and hydropower production in the Swiss Alps: quantification of potential impacts and related modelling uncertainties

International audienceThis paper addresses two major challenges in climate change impact analysis on water resources systems: (i) incorporation of a large range of potential climate change scenarios and (ii) quantification of related modelling uncertainties. The methodology of climate change impact modelling is developed and illustrated through application to a hydropower plant in the Swiss Alps that uses the discharge of a highly glacierised catchment. The potential climate change impacts are analysed in terms of system performance for the control period (1961?1990) and for the future period (2070?2099) under a range of climate change scenarios. The system performance is simulated through a set of four model types, including the production of regional climate change scenarios based on global-mean warming scenarios, the corresponding discharge model, the model of glacier surface evolution and the hydropower management model. The modelling uncertainties inherent in each model type are characterised and quantified separately. The overall modelling uncertainty is simulated through Monte Carlo simulations of the system behaviour for the control and the future period. The results obtained for both periods lead to the conclusion that potential climate change has a statistically significant negative impact on the system performance

A conceptual glacio-hydrological model for high mountainous catchments

International audienceIn high mountainous catchments, the spatial precipitation and therefore the overall water balance is generally difficult to estimate. The present paper describes the structure and calibration of a semi-lumped conceptual glacio-hydrological model for the joint simulation of daily discharge and annual glacier mass balance that represents a better integrator of the water balance. The model has been developed for climate change impact studies and has therefore a parsimonious structure; it requires three input times series ? precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration ? and has 7 parameters to calibrate. A multi-signal approach considering daily discharge and ? if available ? annual glacier mass balance has been developed for the calibration of these parameters. The model has been calibrated for three different catchments in the Swiss Alps having glaciation rates between 37% and 52%. It simulates well the observed daily discharge, the hydrological regime and some basic glaciological features, such as the annual mass balance

Modélisation déterministe de la crue extrême d'un bassin versant de montagne avec application de la description géomorphologique du réseau hydrographique

Les méthodes de calcul des crues de projet pour des grands barrages sont de type statistique ou de type déterministe (PMP/PMF). Ce dernier type de méthodes est principalement utilisé dans le monde anglo-saxon (États-Unis, Australie), mais peut offrir une alternative intéressante aux méthodes statistiques, qui présentent des lacunes pouvant être importantes.Une application des méthodes PMP/PMF sur des bassins suisses a mis en évidence l'intérêt de ces méthodes, mais aussi leurs faiblesses. Une adaptation des outils déterministes est nécessaire pour prendre en compte les particularités des bassins de montagne. Il s'agit principalement de mieux tenir compte des propriétés physiques des bassins versants et des phénomènes de non linéarité. Dans ce but, un concept de modélisation utilisant la description géomorphologique du bassin versant a été utilisé et amélioré. Le premier modèle utilisé est l'hydrogramme unitaire géomorphologique, qui existe depuis 1979. Le deuxième modèle utilise le concept de cascade de réservoirs hydrologiques à vidange non linéaire, dont les éléments sont issus de la description géomorphologique du bassin. C'est là une modélisation nouvelle qui est particulièrement adaptée au contexte des crues extrêmes dans les Alpes. Un travail de calibration et validation du modèle a montré que ce modèle a un bon potentiel d'utilisation. La principale difficulté revient à identifier la signification physique des paramètres du modèle, qui pourrait s'appuyer sur les résultats d'un autre type de modélisation couplant la géomorphologie du bassin aux equations de l'onde cinématique. Ce modèle est en cours de test à l'IATE.Design floods for large dams are computed either with statistical or deterministic methods (Probable maximum precipitation, PMP/probable maximum flood, PMF). The latter presents an interesting alternative to statistical rnethods, whose drawbacks may be significant, especially when hydrometeorological data are deficient.PMP/PMF methods are based on assumption of the existence of an upper limit of the hydrometeorological processes. The prevalent method for PMP estimation is the maximization - transposition technique. Simpler methods, such as the statististically based technique, also exist. However, the most accurate method may well be the use of a meteorological model, but this aspect is still in the research domain.PMF is derived from a PMP using a simplified loss function and a transfer function for which parameters are maximized. The prevalent transfer function is the unit hydrograph model.Application of traditional PMP/PMF method on alpine catchments showed important weaknesses due to the transfer function. Alpine catchments are characterized by steep slopes, thin soil cover, poor vegetation, and large floods are due to heavy, short thunderstorms. Consequently, hydrological response is very sensitive to the topography of the catchment. Nonlinearity must be taken into account in many cases. However, experience showed that a model cannot take into account a detailed description of the catchment.In order to take into account the characteristcs of alpine catchments while staying as simple as possible, we have used the geomorphologic description of the catchment as a modeling basis. This representation is based on the Strahler ordering scheme, and defines all possible path types that a surface runoff dropret may follow to reach the outlet. This description has been used since 1979 in the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) formulation.We developed a geomorphorogic nonlinear cascade (GNC) in order to take into account nonlinear processes. The GNC model uses the geomorphologic description of the catchment to define the reservoirs of hydrological cascades. A cascade represents a path type; the first reservoir ofa cascade is an overland element and subsequent reservoirs are channels with increasing Strahler's order. Outflow from a reservoir is the inflow of the downstream reservoir. Outflows from all cascades are combined to produce the global catchment response. The two equations used in the GNC model are a global continuity equation: I - O = dV/dt, and a nonlinear outflow equation: O = k Vx, where I is an input term, that is precipitation for the first reservoir, and outflow from the upstream element for channel reservoirs, V is the volume of water stored in a reservoir at time t, k is a consfant, and x an exponent. The parameter k varies with each reservoir as a function of surface area (for overland erements) or rength (for channel elements). The exponent x should be between 1 and 2.The two models, GUH and GNC, have been calibrated with an automatic optimization procedure, and tested on the Vogelbach catchment. This catchment is located in the swiss alps (Arptar, canton of schwytz); it is a third order catchment, and its area is 1,55 km2. Both models gave good results, although the GUH model had a tendency to smooth the dischage.Inorder to improve the physical meaning of the moder parameters, we are testing a third model linking the geomorphologic description with the kinematic wave equations. Results are promising, but are not shorm in this paper.The hydrologic modeling based on the geomorphologic description of the catchment seems to be a good compromise between lumped modeb and detailed distributed models, which are difficult to apply

Digital terrain analysis of the Haute-Mentue catchment an scale effect for hydrological modelling with TOPMODEL

International audienceIt is widely recognised that topography plays an important role in the generation of runoff. The scale of a digital elevation model has been found to have some impacts on the results of hydrological modelling in several studies. In particular it has been shown that the representation of the statistical distribution of the topographic index used by TOPMODEL is sensitive to the scale of the digital terrain model. The objectives of this study are to develop an analysis of the topography and scale effects for the Haute-Mentue catchment and to test the role of different spatial resolution on parameter calibration. The major result is that the spatial scale is important for the parameter values, but not determinant for the modelling results if a pertinent methodology is adopted for the determination of digital watershed representation. Keywords: digital elevation model, topographic index, scale problems, TOPMODEL</p

Quantification of 37Ar emanation fractions from irradiated natural rock samples and field applications.

Underground-produced 37Ar can be used for underground nuclear explosions (UNE) detection and for groundwater dating. The quantification of the emanation, that is the fraction of activity produced in the rock that escapes to the pore space, is essential for predicting the background activity expected in natural environments. We propose an experiment in which artificial CaCO3 powder and natural rock particles are irradiated with neutrons in a routinely operated medical cyclotron, whose energy spectrum is experimentally measured. The produced activity was quantified and compared with the emanated activity to determine the emanating fraction. The results showed consistent and reproducible patterns with a dominance of the recoil process at small scales (<2 mm). We observed emanation values ≤1% with a dependency on the grain size and the inner geometry of particles. Soil weathering and the presence of water increased the recoil emanation. The atoms produced that were instantaneously recoiled in the intra- or inter-granular pore space left macroscopic samples by diffusion on timescales of days to weeks (Deff = 10-12 - 10-16 m2 s-1). This diffusive transport determines the activity that prevails in the fluid-filled pore space accessible for groundwater or soil gas sampling

Prediction of climate change impacts on Alpine discharge regimes under A2 and B2 SRES emission scenarios for two future time periods (2020-2049, 2070-2099)

The present work analyzes the climate change impacts on the runoff regimes of mountainous catchments in the Swiss Alps having current glaciation rates between 0 and 50 %. The hydrological response of 11 catchments to a given climate scenario is simulated through a conceptual, reservoir-based precipitation-runoff transformation model called GSM-SOCONT (Schaefli, 2005). For the glacierized catchments, the glacier surface corresponding to this future scenario is updated through a conceptual glacier surface evolution model. The analyzed climate change scenarios were derived from 19 climate experiments obtained within the EU research project PRUDENCE (Christensen et al. 2002). They are the results of 9 state-to-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by three coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), respectively HadCM3/HadAM3H, ECHAM4/OPYC3 and ARPEGE. The two first families of climate change scenarios correspond to changes in seasonal temperatures and precipitations simulated for the period 2070-2099 under the two green house gas emission scenarios A2 and B2 defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (12 experiments are available for A2 and 7 for B2). From the 19 PRUDENCE experiments 19 climate changes scenarios were additionally developed for a transient period (2020-2049) corresponding in first approximation to a global warming scenario of +1°C

Incidence and characteristics of adverse events in paediatric inpatient care: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Adverse events (AEs) cause suffering for hospitalised children, a fragile patient group where the delivery of adequate timely care is of great importance. Objective: To report the incidence and characteristics of AEs, in paediatric inpatient care, as detected with the Global Trigger Tool (GTT), the Trigger Tool (TT) or the Harvard Medical Practice Study (HMPS) method. Method: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar were searched from inception to June 2021, without language restrictions. Studies using manual record review were included if paediatric data were reported separately. We excluded studies reporting: AEs for a specific disease/diagnosis/treatment/procedure, or deceased patients; study protocols with no AE outcomes; conference abstracts, editorials and systematic reviews; clinical incident reports as the primary data source; and studies focusing on specific AEs only. Methodological risk of bias was assessed using a tool based on the Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2. Primary outcome was the percentage of admissions with ≥1 AEs. All statistical analyses were stratified by record review methodology (GTT/TT or HMPS) and by type of population. Meta-analyses, applying random-effects models, were carried out. The variability of the pooled estimates was characterised by 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Results: We included 32 studies from 44 publications, conducted in 15 countries totalling 33 873 paediatric admissions. The total number of AEs identified was 8577. The most common types of AEs were nosocomial infections (range, 6.8%-59.6%) for the general care population and pulmonary-related (10.5%-36.7%) for intensive care. The reported incidence rates were highly heterogeneous. The PIs for the primary outcome were 3.8%-53.8% and 6.9%-91.6% for GTT/TT studies (general and intensive care population). The equivalent PI was 0.3%-33.7% for HMPS studies (general care). The PIs for preventable AEs were 7.4%-96.2% and 4.5%-98.9% for GTT/TT studies (general and intensive care population) and 10.4%-91.8% for HMPS studies (general care). The quality assessment indicated several methodological concerns regarding the included studies. Conclusion: The reported incidence of AEs is highly variable in paediatric inpatient care research, and it is not possible to estimate a reliable single rate. Poor reporting standards and methodological differences hinder the comparison of study results

Development of aerogel Cherenkov counters at Novosibirsk

Abstract The work on aerogel Cherenkov counters was started in Novosibirsk in 1986. Production of aerogels with refractive indices of 1.006–1.13 and thicknesses of blocks up to 50 mm was developed. The light absorption length at 400 nm is 5–7 m, the scattering length is 4–5 cm. By these parameters, the Novosibirsk aerogel is one of the best in the world. The ASHIPH Cherenkov counters with light collection on wavelength shifters have been developed. The ASHIPH system of the KEDR detector contains 1000 l of aerogel. The π / K separation is 4.5 σ . A project of ASHIPH counters for the SND detector has been developed. Aerogel RICH for LHCb gives a possibility to identify hadrons in the momentum range of 2–10 GeV/c. The Novosibirsk group is developing an aerogel RICH for the endcap for the SuperBaBar project. Calculations performed by a group of physicists from Novosibirsk and DESY-Zeuthen have shown that aerogel radiators enable to achieve time resolution up to 20 fs