IPAD: Stable Interpretable Forecasting with Knockoffs Inference

Interpretability and stability are two important features that are desired in many contemporary big data applications arising in economics and finance. While the former is enjoyed to some extent by many existing forecasting approaches, the latter in the sense of controlling the fraction of wrongly discovered features which can enhance greatly the interpretability is still largely underdeveloped in the econometric settings. To this end, in this paper we exploit the general framework of model-X knockoffs introduced recently in Cand\`{e}s, Fan, Janson and Lv (2018), which is nonconventional for reproducible large-scale inference in that the framework is completely free of the use of p-values for significance testing, and suggest a new method of intertwined probabilistic factors decoupling (IPAD) for stable interpretable forecasting with knockoffs inference in high-dimensional models. The recipe of the method is constructing the knockoff variables by assuming a latent factor model that is exploited widely in economics and finance for the association structure of covariates. Our method and work are distinct from the existing literature in that we estimate the covariate distribution from data instead of assuming that it is known when constructing the knockoff variables, our procedure does not require any sample splitting, we provide theoretical justifications on the asymptotic false discovery rate control, and the theory for the power analysis is also established. Several simulation examples and the real data analysis further demonstrate that the newly suggested method has appealing finite-sample performance with desired interpretability and stability compared to some popularly used forecasting methods

cohesion and conflict in transnational merchant families

How do people negotiate the diversity of positionalities within kin groups? Through a diachronic approach, I investigate how Ali and Jalal, two merchants with Azeri and Gilaki ethnic identifications who came to Hamburg in the 1930s, mobilized kin to generate capital along the lines of generation, gender, and age. The reader simultaneously learns about the local history of Iranian immigration. Building on literature about historical merchant networks, the social organization of the Iranian marketplace (bazaar), the anthropology of kinship and transnational families, I question the social cohesion on which Aihwa Ong's study of flexible capital creation relies. The material suggests that the experience of family relations influences agents' positioning in the local Iranian social field

Cornuroncus Nassirkhani & Zaragoza & Mumladze 2019, n. gen.

Cornuroncus Nassirkhani, Zaragoza & Mumladze n. gen. Diagnosis. Cornuroncus can be distinguished from all other genera of the subfamily Neobisiinae by the following combination of characters: rallum with 7–8 denticulate blades that increase in length from proximal to distal and are located on a low hyaline base, the lack of processes on the chelal hand, chelal fingers without accessory teeth, trichobothrium t positioned distinctly distal to st, presence of a short dorso-distal spine on tarsus IV, and leg IV with an accessory tooth in ventral position on one of the claws. Type species. Cornuroncus chavchavadzei Nassirkhani, Zaragoza & Mumladze n. sp. Etymology. The generic name refers to the presence of a horn-like projection on the dorso-distal surface of tarsus IV, and the strong resemblance to Roncus (Cornuroncus, cornu + Roncus, Latin, cornu means “horn-shaped”). Description. Carapace sub-quadrate, entirely smooth, with a distinct triangular epistome and one pair of eyes, posterior transverse furrow more or less visible. Tergites and sternites undivided and with smooth cuticle; sternites III–XI with marginal setae, without discal setae in both sexes, except in sternites II–III of males. Chaetotaxy of genital area: anterior genital operculum with 8–9 and posterior operculum with 12–14 short setae in females; anterior and posterior opercula with 31 setae in males. Pleural membrane granulate. Cheliceral rallum comprising one row of 7–8 denticulate blades on a low hyaline base, most proximal blade shortest. Pedipalp robust, dorsal face of trochanter without spiniform setae, trichobothria eb, esb, ib, and isb located at base of fixed chelal finger, trichobothrium ist situated proximal to middle of the finger. Tarsus IV with a short dorso-distal spine. One of the claws of leg IV with a ventral accessory tooth, the other claw smooth and without processes (Figs 14–16).Published as part of Nassirkhani, Mahrad, Zaragoza, Juan A. & Mumladze, Levan, 2019, A new pseudoscorpion genus from western Georgia (Pseudoscorpiones: Neobisiidae: Cornuroncus n. gen.), with a key to all Neobisiinae genera, pp. 289-295 in Zootaxa 4624 (2) on pages 290-291, DOI: 10.11646/zootaxa.4624.2.12, http://zenodo.org/record/325923

A new pseudoscorpion genus from western Georgia (Pseudoscorpiones: Neobisiidae: Cornuroncus n. gen.), with a key to all Neobisiinae genera

Nassirkhani, Mahrad, Zaragoza, Juan A., Mumladze, Levan (2019): A new pseudoscorpion genus from western Georgia (Pseudoscorpiones: Neobisiidae: Cornuroncus n. gen.), with a key to all Neobisiinae genera. Zootaxa 4624 (2): 289-295, DOI: https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.4624.2.1