On the Web Platform Cornucopia

Peer reviewe

The meaning of justified subjectivism and its role in the reconciliation of recent disagreements over forensic probabilism

In this paper we reply to recent comments in this Special Issue according to which subjective probability is not considered to be a concept fit for use in forensic evaluation and expert reporting. We identify the source of these criticisms to lie in a misunderstanding of subjective probability as unconstrained subjective probability; a lack of constraint that neither corresponds to the way in which we referred to subjective probability in our previous contributions, nor to the way in which probability assignment is understood by current evaluative guidelines (e.g., of ENFSI). Specifically, we explain that we understand subjective probability as a justified assertion, i.e. a conditional assessment based on task-relevant data and information, that may be thought of as a constrained subjective probability. This leads us to emphasise again the general conclusion that there is no gap between justified (or, reasonable) subjective probability and other concepts of probability in terms of its ability to provide assessments that are soundly based on whatever relevant information available. We also note that the challenges an expert faces in reporting probabilities apply equally to all interpretations of probability, not only to subjective probability

DNA methylation-based age prediction using massively parallel sequencing data and multiple machine learning models

The field of DNA intelligence focuses on retrieving information from DNA evidence that can help narrow down large groups of suspects or define target groups of interest. With recent breakthroughs on the estimation of geographical ancestry and physical appearance, the estimation of chronological age comes to complete this circle of information. Recent studies have identified methylation sites in the human genome that correlate strongly with age and can be used for the development of age-estimation algorithms. In this study, 110 whole blood samples from individuals aged 11-93 years were analysed using a DNA methylation quantification assay based on bisulphite conversion and massively parallel sequencing (Illumina MiSeq) of 12 CpG sites. Using this data, 17 different statistical modelling approaches were compared based on root mean square error (RMSE) and a Support Vector Machine with polynomial function (SVMp) model was selected for further testing. For the selected model (RMSE = 4.9 years) the mean average error (MAE) of the blind test (n = 33) was calculated at 4.1 years, with 52% of the samples predicting with less than 4 years of error and 86% with less than 7 years. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the method was assessed both in terms of methylation quantification accuracy and prediction accuracy in the first validation of this kind. The described method retained its accuracy down to 10 ng of initial DNA input or ~2 ng bisulphite PCR input. Finally, 34 saliva samples were analysed and following basic normalisation, the chronological age of the donors was predicted with less than 4 years of error for 50% of the samples and with less than 7 years of error for 70%

Chapter 11: Emerging approaches in the analysis of inks on questioned documents

Questioned document is one of the oldest fields of examination reported in forensic science. Documents are used as physical (nowadays sometimes virtual) traces of human transactions, thus questioning, falsification and counterfeiting certainly have existed since their invention and routine use. This is also the case for biblical texts and art pieces for which authenticity and authorship are often disputed. While mainly handwriting comparison was reported in early works, the composition and characteristics of inks on paper were often briefly discussed (see for example the early works of Demelle or Raveneau in the XVIIe century ). Since then, many technological developments have impacted questioned document examination, both with regard to the ink and paper production, as well as to the writing instruments or printing techniques. Nowadays, further progress have changed the world of (questioned) documents, through the introduction of virtual documents using electronic signatures and security documents such as passports using mixed physical and digital biometric data. Thus, the document examiner' expertise has to quickly evolve and adapt to such developments, sometimes necessitating the combination of skills from different disciplines not always co-existing in forensic laboratories (such as chemistry, physics, statistics, engineering, material science, computer science). After a brief overview of the historical development in both ink formulation and analysis, this chapter will investigate the relevance of rapidly evolving technologies for application to the examination of questioned documents in a forensic perspective