Estimation of a fiscal policy rule for EMU countries (1984-2005)

The primary objective of this article is to estimate a fiscal policy rule for each of the EMU member States from 1984 to 2005 in order to know if there has been a systematic response of the cyclically adjusted primary balance to output gap and debt level variations. Also, we aim to discover whether the change in the fiscal framework, which took place after 1992 has had a substantial impact on the fiscal policy applied. The principal novelty is that the estimation is performed simultaneously by means of a seemingly unrelated regression estimator model. We are thus able to obtain different coefficients for each country, while developing possible correlations between national fiscal policies, which would reveal the existence of common factors. The results provide clear evidence of a structural break in the rule after the introduction of the new fiscal regulations and, as the hypothesis of equality in the national coefficients of the rule is clearly rejected, reveal a need to consider specific national factors.

A Scheme to Coordinate Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area

Il saggio esamina l'organizzazione del coordinamento tra le politiche fiscali e monetarie nell'area dell'euro, criticandone i contenuti attuali e proponendone una modifica sia ai meccanismi istituzionali, attraverso la creazione di un'Agenzia Fiscale Europea, dotata di un'indipendenza simile a quella della Banca Centrale Europea, sia di suoi strumenti operativi, come il Patto di Stabilità, i cui contenuti attuali appaiono contraddittori rispetto ai dati ufficiali riportati dalla BCE e relativi alle potenzialialità di crescita e al tasso di inflazione obiettivo dell'area dell'euro, e ai vincoli imposti dal Patto stesso ai rapporti deficit-PIl e debito pubblico-PIL