Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models

Montseciella, a new orbitolinid genus (Foraminiferida) from the Uppermost Hauterivian -Early Barremian of SW Europe

Montseciella, a new larger foraminiferal orbitolinid genus, is established. It comprises: M. glanensis (Foury, 1968) (uppermost Late Hauterivian to basal Early Barremian) from Serra del Montsec (Lleida Prov., Catalonian Pyrenees, Spain), Basse Provence (France) and the French Subalpine Chains, and its direct phylogenetic descendant M. alguerensis n. sp. (higher Early Barremian) from NW Sardinia (Italy). These two species represent the lower part of a phylogenetic lineage to which also belong 'Dictyoconus' arabicus Henson, 1948 and Rectodictyoconus giganteus Schroeder, 1964, occuring in the Late Barremian and lowermost Early Aptian. Key words: Foraminifers, Orbitolinidae, Catalonian Pyrenees (Spain), Sardinia (Italy), Subalpine Chains (France), Provence (France), Hauterivian, Barremian.Se establece Montseciella, un nuevo género de foraminíferos de gran tamaño, perteneciente a la familia Orbitolinidae. Este nuevo taxón incluye: M. glanensis (Foury, 1968) (Hauteriviense superior terminal - Barremiense inferior basal), encontrandose en la Serra del Montsec (Prov. de Lleida, Pirineo Catalán, España) y en la Baja Provenza y las Cadenas Subalpinas (Francia), y su descendiente directo M. alguerensis n. sp. (Barremiense inferior no basal) de Cerdeña (Italia). Los dos especies representan la parte inferior de una línea filogenética, a la cual pertenecen también 'Dictyoconus' arabicus Henson, 1948 y Rectodictyoconus giganteus Schroeder, 1964, del Barremiense superior y Aptiense inferior basal. Palabras clave: Foraminíferos, Orbitolinidae, Pirineo Catalan (España), Cerdeña (Italia), Cadenas Subalpinas (Francia), Provenza (Francia), Hauteriviense, Barremiens

Hallazgo de Paracoskinolina pertenuis Foury (Orbitolinidae) en el Barremiense inferior del Pirineo catalán: reflexiones sobre su posición sistemática y filogenética

A sample of Early Barremian age from the Roca de Narieda (Lleida Prov., Catalonian Pyrenees, Spain) has furnished the orbitolinid Foraminifera Paracoskinolina pertenuis Foury, 1968 and Eopalorbitolina charollaisi Schroeder & Conrad, 1968. P. pertenuis sensu Foury is a mixture of at least three species belonging to different genera. Its holotype has to be assigned to the genus Eopalorbitolina. E. pertenuis is regarded as the direct ancestor of E. charollaisi and the most primitive representative of the phylogenetical lineage Eopalorbitolina - Palorbitolina gr. lenticularis. Key words: Foraminifers, Orbitolinidae, Catalonian Pyrenees (Spain), Alpilles (France), Barremian, Systematics, Phylogeny.En una muestra del Barremiense inferior, proveniente de la Roca de Narieda (Organyà, provincia de Lleida, Pirineo catalán, España), se ha encontrado Paracoskinolina pertenuis Foury, 1968, asociada con Eopalorbitolina charollaisi Schroeder & Conrad, 1968. P. pertenuis sensu Foury es una mezcla de por lo menos tres taxones diferentes. Su holotipo pertenece al género Eopalorbitolina. E. pertenuis está considerada como el antecesor directo de E. charollaisi y el representante más primitivo de la línea filogenética Eopalorbitolina - Palorbitolina gr. lenticularis Palabras clave: Foraminíferos, Orbitolinidae, Pirineo catalán (España), Alpilles (Francia), Barremiense, Sistemática, Filogenia

Impact of global SST gradients on the Mediterranean runoff changes across the Plio-Pleistocene transition

This work explores the impact of the development of global meridional and zonal sea surfacetemperature (SST) gradients on the Mediterranean runoff variability during the Plio-Pleistocene transition,about 3 Ma. Results show that total annual mean Pliocene Mediterranean runoff is about 40% larger thanduring the preindustrial period due to more increased extratropical specific humidity. As a consequenceof a weakened and extended Hadley cell, the Pliocene northwest Africa hydrological network producesa discharge 30 times larger than today. Our results support the conclusion that during the Pliocene, theMediterranean water deficit was reduced relative to today due to a larger river discharge. By means ofa stand-alone atmospheric general circulation model, we simulate the separate impact of extratropicaland equatorial SST cooling on the Mediterranean runoff. While cooling the equatorial SST does not implysignificant changes to the Pliocene Mediterranean hydrological budget, the extratropical SST coolingincreases the water deficit due to a decrease in precipitation and runoff. Consequently, river dischargefrom this area reduces to preindustrial levels. The main teleconnections acting upon the Mediterraneanarea today, i.e., the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter and the “monsoon-desert” mechanism duringsummer already have a large influence on the climate of our Pliocene simulations. Finally, our results alsosuggest that in a climate state significantly warmer than today, changes of the Hadley circulation couldpotentially lead to increased water resources in northwest Africa