Northern Adriatic general circulation behaviour induced by heat fluxes variations due to possible climatic changes

The thermohaline circulation of the central-north Adriatic basin is investigated by means of a 3D hydrodynamic numerical model. Three different runs — where the surface heat fluxes annual average is respectively negative, slightly positive and slightly negative — are performed; the general circulation patterns are then discussed and depicted, also with the aid of the trajectories of numerical particles released during the integrations. Results confirm that surface heat fluxes can start and trigger the general circulation in the basin (both vertically and horizontally), even without prescribing other forcings. Particularly, when the annual budget of the heat fluxes is negative (i.e. the basin loses heat to the atmosphere)a horizontal cyclonic surface circulation is generated, characterized by a northward flow along the eastern coast and a southward return current system along the western one. From the vertical point of view, an antiestuarine circulation is established. A similar circulation pattern is depicted when the surface fluxes have a slightly negative annual budget. On the other hand, when the annual fluxes balance is positive the vertical circulation switches to estuarine and, as expected, the integrated circulation becomes anticyclonic. A modification in the heat fluxes budget is strictly related to a change in the water column turnover time of the Jabuka pit, the deepest meso-Adriatic depression: when the annual heat fluxes balance is negative but close to zero, the dense-water residence time in the pit becomes minimum and the water has a shorter turnover time, denoting a faster renewal compared to those exhibited in the other experiments

Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: Numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropicalto polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays—a non-glacial period—appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus, 13 (1961) 224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, airsea-ice–integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and codes have been accordingly modified. This relevant numerical help coming from the computer science can now allow scientists to devote larger attention in the efforts of understanding the deep mechanisms of such complex processes

The Ross Shelf cavity water exchange variability during 1995-1998

This work aims at presenting an analysis of the evolution of the physical properties of a water column at the southern limit of the Ross Sea, Antarctica. Data has been collected over a four year period (from January 1995 to July 1998) by means of an oceanographic mooring (named mooring “F”) berthed a few miles north of theRoss IceShe lf at a depth of 600 m on thecon tinental shelf. The velocity and temperature measurements have been investigated seeking for ISW (Ice Shelf Water) outflow footprints. These outflows are irregular massive injections of cold water from below the Ice Shelf, flowing mainly across the cavity floor into the Ross Sea bottom layers. The study evidenced a large number of DISW outflow events (Deep Ice Shelf Water, the coldest and densest fraction of the ISW, the actual main object of the present study), characterized by an interannual variability that could turn out to bean important co-factor in thev ariations of theplane tary heat balance and climate instability. Differences in DISW outflow timings from biennium 1995-1996, during which a jet-like behaviour was dominating (each events was only a few days long), and 1997-1998 (with a few long and rather continous cold water outflows) have been detected. Moreover, in 1996 measurements evidenced a relatively long and warm period (about 110 days from March to July) characterized by thetotal absenceof DISW outflow, this interval being morethan twice longer with respect to any other similar ones registered during 1995, 1997 and 1998, and longer that any other warm period observed in the area during the early ’80s. The estimates of cold water exchanged during the four years return a more complicated framework: 1996 behaviour seems to be closer to the 1997 than to the 1995 one, with high fluxes and high volumes. 1995 can probably be considered as the ignition of an interannual anomaly, which climax is the long warm period of spring 1996

Simulation of a flash-flood event over the Adriatic Sea with a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean–wave coupled system

On the morning of September 26, 2007, a heavy precipitation event (HPE) affected the Venice lagoon and the neighbouring coastal zone of the Adriatic Sea, with 6-h accumulated rainfall summing up to about 360 mm in the area between the Venetian mainland, Padua and Chioggia. The event was triggered and maintained by the uplift over a convergence line between northeasterly flow from the Alps and southeasterly winds from the Adriatic Sea. Hindcast modelling experiments, using standalone atmospheric models, failed to capture the spatial distribution, maximum intensity and timing of the HPE. Here we analyze the event by means of an atmosphere-wave-ocean coupled numerical approach. The combined use of convection permitting models with grid spacing of 1 km, high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) fields, and the consistent treatment of marine boundary layer fluxes in all the numerical model components are crucial to provide a realistic simulation of the event. Inaccurate representations of the SST affect the wind magnitude and, through this, the intensity, location and time evolution of the convergence zone, thus affecting the HPE prediction. © 2021, The Author(s)

On the predictability of volcano-tectonic events by low frequency seismic noise analysis at Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex, Canary Islands

The island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), is showing possible signs of reawakening after its last basaltic strombolian eruption, dated 1909 at Chinyero. The main concern relates to the central active volcanic complex Teide - Pico Viejo, which poses serious hazards to the properties and population of the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), and which has erupted several times during the last 5000 years, including a subplinian phonolitic eruption (Montaña Blanca) about 2000 years ago. In this paper we show the presence of low frequency seismic noise which possibly includes tremor of volcanic origin and we investigate the feasibility of using it to forecast, via the material failure forecast method, the time of occurrence of discrete events that could be called Volcano-Tectonic or simply Tectonic (i.e. non volcanic) on the basis of their relationship to volcanic activity. In order to avoid subjectivity in the forecast procedure, an automatic program has been developed to generate forecasts, validated by Bayes theorem. A parameter called 'forecast gain' measures (and for the first time quantitatively) what is gained in probabilistic terms by applying the (automatic) failure forecast method. The clear correlation between the obtained forecasts and the occurrence of (Volcano-)Tectonic seismic events - a clear indication of a relationship between the continuous seismic noise and the discrete seismic events - is the explanation for the high value of this 'forecast gain' in both 2004 and 2005 and an indication that the events are Volcano-Tectonic rather than purely Tectonic

Langmuir cells and mixing in the upper ocean

The presence of surface gravity waves at the ocean surface has two important effects on turbulence in the oceanic mixed layer (ML): the wave breaking and the Langmuir cells (LC). Both these effects act as additional sources of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the oceanic ML, and hence are important to mixing in the upper ocean. The breaking of high wave-number components of the wind wave spectrum provides an intense but sporadic source of turbulence in the upper surface; turbulence thus injected diffuses downward, while decaying rapidly, modifying oceanic near-surface properties which in turn could affect the air-sea transfer of heat and dissolved gases. LC provide another source of additional turbulence in the water column; they are counter-rotating cells inside the ML, with their axes roughly aligned in the direction of the wind (Langmuir I., Science, 87 (1938) 119). These structures are usually made evident by the presence of debris and foam in the convergence area of the cells, and are generated by the interaction of the wave-field–induced Stokes drift with the wind-induced shear stress. LC have long been thought to have a substantial influence on mixing in the upper ocean, but the difficulty in their parameterization have made ML modelers consistently ignore them in the past. However, recent Large Eddy Simulations (LES) studies suggest that it is possible to include their effect on mixing by simply adding additional production terms in the turbulence equations, thus enabling even 1D models to incorporate LC-driven turbulence. Since LC also modify the Coriolis terms in the mean momentum equations by the addition of a term involving the Stokes drift, their effect on the velocity structure in the ML is also quite significant and could have a major impact on the drift of objects and spilled oil in the upper ocean. In this paper we examine the effect of surface gravity waves on mixing in the upper ocean, focusing on Langmuir circulations, which is by far the dominant part of the surface wave contribution to mixing. Oceanic ML models incorporating these effects are applied to an observation station in the Northern Adriatic Sea to see what the extent of these effects might be. It is shown that the surface wave effects can indeed be significant; in particular, the modification of the velocity profile due to LC-generated turbulence can be large under certain conditions. However, the surface wave effects on the bulk properties of the ML, such as the associated temperature, while significant, are generally speaking well within the errors introduced by uncertainties in the external forcing of the models. This seems to be the reason why ML models, though pretty much ignoring surface wave effects until recently, have been reasonably successful in depicting the evolution of the mixed layer temperature (MLT) at various timescales

Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

Abstract. We present a study on expected wind wave severity changes in the Adriatic Sea for the period 2070–2099 and their impact on extremes. To do so, the phase-averaged spectral wave model SWAN is forced using wind fields computed by the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the climate version of the COSMO meteorological model downscaled from a global climate model running under the IPCC-A1B emission scenario. Namely, the adopted wind fields are given with a horizontal resolution of 14 km and 40 vertical levels, and they are prepared by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA). Firstly, in order to infer the wave model accuracy in predicting seasonal variability and extreme events, SWAN results are validated against a control simulation, which covers the period 1965–1994. In particular, numerical predictions of the significant wave height Hs are compared against available in-situ data. Further, a statistical analysis is carried out to estimate changes on wave storms and extremes during the simulated periods (control and future scenario simulations). In particular, the generalized Pareto distribution is used to predict changes of storm peak Hs for frequent and rare storms in the Adriatic Sea. Finally, Borgman's theory is applied to estimate the spatial pattern of the expected maximum wave height Hmax during a storm, both for the present climate and that of the future scenario. Results show a future wave climate in the Adriatic Sea milder than the present climate, even though increases of wave severity can occur locally

Use of whole-genus genome sequence data to develop a multilocus sequence typing tool that accurately identifies Yersinia isolates to the species and subspecies levels

The genus Yersinia is a large and diverse bacterial genus consisting of human-pathogenic species, a fish-pathogenic species, and a large number of environmental species. Recently, the phylogenetic and population structure of the entire genus was elucidated through the genome sequence data of 241 strains encompassing every known species in the genus. Here we report the mining of this enormous data set to create a multilocus sequence typing-based scheme that can identify Yersinia strains to the species level to a level of resolution equal to that for whole-genome sequencing. Our assay is designed to be able to accurately subtype the important human-pathogenic species Yersinia enterocolitica to whole-genome resolution levels. We also report the validation of the scheme on 386 strains from reference laboratory collections across Europe. We propose that the scheme is an important molecular typing system to allow accurate and reproducible identification of Yersinia isolates to the species level, a process often inconsistent in nonspecialist laboratories. Additionally, our assay is the most phylogenetically informative typing scheme available for Y. enterocolitica

Identification of Seismo-Volcanic Regimes at Whakaari/White Island (New Zealand) Via Systematic Tuning of an Unsupervised Classifier

We present an algorithm based on Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to recognize patterns in a continuous 12.5-year tremor time series recorded at Whakaari/White Island volcano, New Zealand (hereafter referred to as Whakaari). The approach is extendable to a variety of volcanic settings through systematic tuning of the classifier. Hyperparameters are evaluated by statistical means, yielding a combination of “ideal” SOM parameters for the given data set. Extending from this, we applied a Kernel Density Estimation approach to automatically detect changes within the observed seismicity. We categorize the Whakaari seismic time series into regimes representing distinct volcano-seismic states during recent unrest episodes at Whakaari (2012/2013, 2016, and 2019). There is a clear separation in classification results between background regimes and those representing elevated levels of unrest. Onset of unrest is detected by the classifier 6 weeks before the August 2012 eruption, and ca. 3.5 months before the December 2019 eruption, respectively. Regime changes are corroborated by changes in commonly monitored tremor proxies as well as with reported volcanic activity. The regimes are hypothesized to represent diverse mechanisms including: system pressurization and depressurization, degassing, and elevated surface activity. Labeling these regimes improves visualization of the 2012/2013 and 2019 unrest and eruptive episodes. The pre-eruptive 2016 unrest showed a contrasting shape and nature of seismic regimes, suggesting differing onset and driving processes. The 2016 episode is proposed to result from rapid destabilization of the shallow hydrothermal system, while rising magmatic gases from new injections of magma better explain the 2012/2013 and 2019 episodes

Reação de cultivares de soja às doenças de final de ciclo com e sem aplicação de fungicidas.

O uso de cultivares resistentes às doenças de final de ciclo (DFCs), como Septoria glycines Hemmi e Cercospora kikuchii Matsu & Tomov é uma ferramenta importante no manejo integrado de doenças. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a reação de quatro cultivares de soja às DFCs, com e sem aplicação de fungicidas. Foram testadas as cultivares BMX Apolo RR, BMX Impacto RR, Fundacep 53 RR e Fundacep 55 RR, na região Nordeste do Rio como criar um blog Grande do Sul. O delineamento experimental foi o de blocos completos casualizados, com quatro repetições, em esquema de parcelas subdivididas. Nas parcelas foram alocadas duas situações de controle de doenças, com e sem aplicação de fungicidas, e nas subparcelas foram alocadas as cultivares testadas. Foram avaliadas variáveis morfológicas, a severidade de DFCs e a produtividade de grãos. Características como ciclo de desenvolvimento curto e plantas baixas conferem menores danos de DFCs em plantas de soja.bitstream/item/110169/1/Reacao-de-cultivares-de-soja-as-doencas-de-final-de-ciclo-com-e-sem-aplicacao-de-fungicidas.pd