International demands for austerity: examining the impact of the IMF on the public sector

What effects do International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans have on borrow-ing countries? Even after decades of research, no consensus exists. We offer a straight-forward explanation for the seemingly mixed effects of IMF loans. We argue thatdifferent loans have different effects because of the varied conditions attached to IMFfinancing. To demonstrate this point, we investigate IMF loans with and withoutconditions that require public sector reforms in exchange for financing. We find thatthe addition of a public sector reform condition to a country’s IMF program signifi-cantly reduces government spending on the public sector wage bill. This evidencesuggest that conditions are a key mechanism linking IMF lending to policy outcomes.Although IMF loans with public sector conditions prompt cuts to the wage bill in theshort-term, these cuts do not persist in the longer-term. Borrowers backslide oninternationally mandated spending cuts in response to domestic political pressures

Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?

Summary The paper, building on the authors' previous analysis, examines the relative volatility of aid flows into developing countries and their domestic revenue, using new data, and three alternative measures of aid instability (relative volatility vis-à-vis fiscal revenue, unpredictability of aid disbursement relative to commitments, and failure of aid to smooth fluctuations in aggregate income). It finds that the volatility of aid flows is still much greater than that of domestic revenue and that this difference is not decreasing. Especially in very poor, aid-dependent countries, this high volatility of inflows makes the macroeconomy hard to manage. Further, the influence of aid has been procyclical and not countercyclical: aid has failed to act either as a stabilizing force or as an insurance mechanism. We argue that, to counter these unwelcome trends, donors need to be able to respond more speedily and effectively to large adverse shocks, and their conditionalities need to become more flexible--possibilities explicitly discussed elsewhere in this Special Section.external aid ODA volatility predictability developing countries

Disinflation, Inequality and Welfare in a TANK Model

We investigate the redistributive and welfare effects of disinflation in a two-agent New Keynesian (TANK) model characterized by Limited Asset Market Participation (LAMP) and wealth inequality. We highlight two key mechanisms driving our long-run results: i) the cash in advance constraint on firms working capital (CIA); ii) dividends endogeneity. These two channels point in opposite directions. Lower inflation softens the CIA and, by raising labor demand, lowers inequality. But the disinflation also raises dividends and this increases inequality. The disinflation is always welfare-improving for asset holders. We obtain ambiguous results for non-asset holders, who suffer substantial consumption losses during the transition

How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and what are the Policy Implications?’. WIDER Discussion Paper DP2001/143

Abstract This paper examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows, and the main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenuesparticularly in highly aid-dependent countries-and mildly procyclical in relation to activity in the recipient country. These findings imply that the current pattern of aid disbursements is welfare-reducing. We also find that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Policies to cope with these features of aid, as well as broader international efforts to reduce the volatility and procyclicality of aid, are briefly discussed. JEL Classification Numbers: F35, O1