Denoised Least Squares Forecasting of GDP Changes Using Indexes of Consumer and Business Sentiment

Indexes of consumer and business sentiment are frequently characterized by measurement errors and short-term cyclical fluctuations that can distort their predictive accuracy for GDP changes. While measurement errors arise due to the survey sampling procedures that characterize these surveys, short-term cyclical fluctuations are generally linked with various exogenous and irregular factors that are not necessarily related to the economy. This paper shows, using data on the US economy, that applying wavelet denoising on indexes of consumer and business sentiment in the context of the linear regression model can overcome these limitations and can provide: (a) efficient coefficient estimates in models that explain consumer sentiment index variation; and (b) consistent coefficient estimates and predictions in models for GDP changes when using consumer and business sentiment indexes as predictors.Consumer sentiment index, denoised least squares, index of homebuilders’sentiment, index of manufacturing activity, measurement errors.

Cold gas and star formation in a merging galaxy sequence

We explore the evolution of the cold gas and star-formation activity during galaxy interactions, using a merging galaxy sequence comprising both pre- and post-mergers. Data for this study come from the literature but supplemented by new radio observations presented here. Firstly, we confirm that the star-formation efficiency (SFE) increases close to nuclear coalescence. At post-merger stages there is evidence that the SFE declines to values typical of ellipticals. This trend can be attributed to M(H_2) depletion due to interaction induced star-formation. However, there is significant scatter, likely to arise from differences in the interaction details of individual systems. Secondly, we find that the central molecular hydrogen surface density, increases close to the final stages of the merging of the two nuclei. Such a trend is also predicted by numerical simulations. Furthermore, there is evidence for a decreasing fraction of cold gas mass from early interacting systems to merger remnants, attributed to gas conversion into other forms. The evolution of the total-radio to blue-band luminosity ratio, reflecting the disk+nucleus star-formation activity, is also investigated. Although this ratio is on average higher than that of isolated spirals, we find a marginal increase along the merging sequence, attributed to the relative insensitivity of disk star-formation to interactions. However, a similar result is also obtained for the nuclear radio emission, although galaxy interactions are believed to significantly affect the activity in the central galaxy regions. Finally, we find that the FIR--radio flux ratio distribution of interacting galaxies is consistent with star-formation being the main energising source.Comment: 18 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Keck Imaging of the Globular Cluster Systems in the Early--type Galaxies NGC 1052 and NGC 7332

The presence of two globular cluster subpopulations in early-type galaxies is now the norm rather than the exception. Here we present two more examples for which the host galaxy appears to have undergone a recent merger. Using multi-colour Keck imaging of NGC 1052 and NGC 7332 we find evidence for a bimodal globular cluster colour distribution in both galaxies, with roughly equal numbers of blue and red globular clusters. The blue ones have similar colours to those in the Milky Way halo and are thus probably very old and metal-poor. If the red GC subpopulations are at least solar metallicity, then stellar population models indicate young ages. We discuss the origin of globular clusters within the framework of formation models. We conclude that recent merger events in these two galaxies have had little effect on their overall GC systems. We also derive globular cluster density profiles, global specific frequencies and in the case of NGC 1052, radial colour gradients and azimuthal distribution. In general these globular cluster properties are normal for early-type galaxies.Comment: 11 pages, Latex, 15 figures, 2 tables, accepted by MNRA

Maria Polydouri (1902-1930): the Greek poète maudit who died of tuberculosis.

Maria Polydouri was a notable Greek poet. Often likened to the French poètes maudits, her poetry reflected a lyrical charisma and her unsettled life an untimely ending. The passing of both her parents within less than two months when she was aged 18 and her incomplete, desperate affair with the syphilitic poet Kostas Karyotakis, defined her existence. She took up many uncompleted occupations and remained socially committed. It seems that in 1923 she caught tuberculosis that was diagnosed ultimately in 1927 and led to her hospitalization at first in Paris and later in Athens. A progressive and restless spirit until the end, she wrote her best poems while in hospital. Polydouri's final years and death received national attention and marked her out as a Greek literary legend

Alexandre Yersin's explorations (1892-1894) in French Indochina before the discovery of the plague bacillus.

Alexandre Yersin, the great French discoverer of yersinia pestis, was a keen explorer of unknown lands. At the age of 30, a member of the French Colonial Health service, he set off to fulfil his intimate dream and explore other continents. For almost two years and three long expeditions, he journeyed through widely unknown regions in the province of the French Indochina, in southeast Asia, territories of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. This article presents vignettes from his explorations. During his difficult travels, he carefully planned and noted his itineraries; designed new routes, but also observed and recorded sociodemographic and environmental data and unidentified diseases. The immature science of late 19th century geography had the strength to allure such an influential medical figure and place him among the early medical geographers. His journeys, observations and recordings brought to Yersin great experience, and he made his most important scientific contributions after he had concluded his explorations

Implementing a system to evaluate quality assurance in rehabilitation in Greece.

BACKGROUND: Use of a widely accepted quality assurance tool is an essential procedure of effective and result-oriented quality management in the rehabilitation sector, and generally in health care and social services, but is still lacking in Greece. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore to what extent a Quality Assurance System in Rehabilitation (QASR) in the Greek setting could respond to the needs for quality evaluation of the facilities for people with a disability and to discuss possibilities of its use in rehabilitation organizations, sites and hospitals. METHODS: The European Quality in Social Services (EQUASS) Assurance self-assessment questionnaire was officially translated and used as the basis for the new tool, which consisted of 110 questions in 11 sections on development and 6 questions on its evaluation. This tool was tested in 15 specialized centers. RESULTS: The study received a high (93.75%) response rate. Overall score ranged from 11% to one perfect 100%; 53.3% of the facilities fell short of the preset qualification standards, while 4 (26.7%) were qualified for level-1 accreditation. Evaluation of the QASR questionnaire for the function of the rehabilitation facilities for the disabled was extremely positive. CONCLUSIONS: The EQUASS assurance-based Greek QASR has received proper attention in its first implementation and it was shown promising to assess the needs of sites that would like to improve their services. The next steps are to establish its validity and reliability so that it can significantly emerge as the standard system for guiding policy in the rehabilitation sector in Greece

The earliest mention of a black bag.

A black bag, needed especially for home visits, has been used since the time of Hippocrates who, in his treatise "On good manners", gave the first detailed description of a medical bag with guidelines for the required equipment and structure. Ancient Egyptian and Palestinian references also date back at least two millenniums