The Russian consumer sector: estimation technology

The article describes the methodology for estimating the Russia’s consumer sector and the effect of its application. The monitoring procedure of the Russian consumer sector groups indicators into two units: the unit of the estimation of consumer goods and the services market estimation unit. The estimation unit of consumer goods is composed of two modules: food products and non-food products. This module offers two components that provide an estimation of the consumer sector: marketing (estimates the accessibility of retail trade and services for end users) and production (estimates the domestic manufacture). The results of the estimation show general improvements in the consumer sector in the period of 2000–2014, but overall development is evaluated as low. The analysis revealed that the financing is growing faster than the quality indices of development. As an example, the financing of agriculture has increased by 1.5 times over 15 years (against comparable prices from 2000), while agricultural production has not changed. Another most pressing challenge is the weak differentiation of the Russian economy, as evidenced by the low rates of non-food production (availability of non-foods of own production remains at a low level and averages 20 %). The results of the estimation suggest the need to reform the regulation of the sector primarily concerning priorities for its development and improvement of financial and economic mechanisms to achieve them.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation Gran, the project № 15–18–10014 " Projection of optimal socio-economic systems in the turbulence of external and internal environment"

Analysis of Economic Motives in the Individual Choice of Educational Paths

The authors consider the economic motivations when individuals choose an educational path. This line of research is relevant from both, the point of view of science — research of economic behavior of an individual, and the point of view of practice — allows to increase efficiency of investments in a human capital. The authors have developed the economic and mathematical model of choice of optimum educational paths by individuals. The model is realized in the software and approved on real data on more than 5,5 thousand students. For the analysis of the importance of rational economic expectations when an educational path has to be chosen, the paths chosen by students is compared and the educational paths optimum from the point of view of economic rationality are calculated. The analysis of the results has showed that mainly, the choice of educational paths happens according to the economic motivations. On the considered selection, 66 % of prospective students have chosen an optimum path from the point of view of economic preferences. The most significant factor providing development of optimum educational paths is an expectation of higher income upon completion of education — 22 % of all educational paths, and a possibility of cost-cutting of educating or state-subsidized education — 12 %. In our opinion, one of the most important practical results of the research of optimum educational path is the need to consider expectations of students and prospective student when developing a state policy of investment in human capital

Psychological bases of occupational health of specialists of economic sphere.

A theoretical and methodological approach to the study of the process of professional health of specialists in the economic sphere was developed, which allowed to distinguish professionally important qualities of a specialist influencing his professional health, as well as to predict their transformation in changing social conditions. The peculiarities of the dynamics of the process of occupational health of specialists in the economic sphere (the stage of "primary formation" and undefined attitude to the profession; "personal-activity" stage - realization of social status at the level of the professional community; "professional-ethical" stage – values-based attitude to the profession) are revealed. Types of values-based attitude relation (neutral; pragmatic-realistic; values-based) to professional activity and peculiarities of their manifestations in specialists of economic sphere having different experience of such activity are determined. It is shown that the dynamics of professional becoming of specialists in the economic sphere is associated with the activation of changes in the internal and external environment of the subject of activity. The conceptual model of formation and preservation of professional health of specialists of the economic sphere is offered, implemented as a theoretical and methodological strategy of the systemic and holistic process in the direction of ensuring its effectiveness, presented in the form of an image of a healthy person, responsibly managing his own health and realizing himself in society, and an image of a specialist who independently sets the goals of formation and preservation of professional health, chooses the best ways and means and achievements. The developed model provides a qualitatively new level of personal, physical, professional and social readiness of the person for self-realization in the professional economic sphere of activity and successful integration into society

The Russian consumer sector: estimation technology

The article describes the methodology for estimating the Russia’s consumer sector and the effect of its application. The monitoring procedure of the Russian consumer sector groups indicators into two units: the unit of the estimation of consumer goods and the services market estimation unit. The estimation unit of consumer goods is composed of two modules: food products and non-food products. This module offers two components that provide an estimation of the consumer sector: marketing (estimates the accessibility of retail trade and services for end users) and production (estimates the domestic manufacture). The results of the estimation show general improvements in the consumer sector in the period of 2000–2014, but overall development is evaluated as low. The analysis revealed that the financing is growing faster than the quality indices of development. As an example, the financing of agriculture has increased by 1.5 times over 15 years (against comparable prices from 2000), while agricultural production has not changed. Another most pressing challenge is the weak differentiation of the Russian economy, as evidenced by the low rates of non-food production (availability of non-foods of own production remains at a low level and averages 20 %). The results of the estimation suggest the need to reform the regulation of the sector primarily concerning priorities for its development and improvement of financial and economic mechanisms to achieve them

Integral Evaluation of the Investment Effectiveness into Universities Development

In this article we examine the impact of international university rankings on their further development. The answers on questions about the influence of ratings indicators on higher educational institutions, as well as the effectiveness of universities financing in proportion to the position in the rating, were identified. The effectiveness of financial investments in universities when promoting one point in international rankings was calculated using an integrated assessment. Our hypothesis is that due to the achievement of target variables of the rating changes the universities structure: the effectiveness of scientific and innovation activity increases, which leads to an increase in the volume of income from this type of activity. From the point of view of scientific and practical importance, it is possible to group higher education institutions on the basis of the results obtained and allocate funds for them, which will allow achieving target indicators. Thus, this method allows you to evaluate the achievement of maximum results and optimize the funding flow. © 2018The research was supported by Act « «211 of the Government of the Russian Federation, agreement № 02.A03.21.0006»

Optimization of Students' Graduation by the University Taking into Account the Needs of the Labor Market

The development of the socio-economic system and the labor market is directly related to the training of young specialists in higher education institutions in accordance with the needs of developing regions. To optimize the functioning of the labor market, it is necessary to compensate for the shortage of highly qualified personnel depending on the areas of training and determine the structural proportions of the optimal number of graduates, based on the share of employed and unemployed in various sectors of the economy. The University meets the needs of regional labor markets with a significant proportion of young highly qualified specialists. To optimize the educational process, it is necessary to analyze and model the impact of educational paths of graduates on the labor market by determining the equilibrium unemployment in the labor market. The proposed approach combines a model for maximizing the expected salary of students with a modification of the search and matching model. At the first level of model construction, we apply an econometric model that allows us to adapt educational paths to the interests of students. At the second level, we describe the behavior of students, choosing an educational path. At the third level, the structure of graduates adapts to the requirements of the labor market. The research perspective is the introduction of feedback mechanisms from graduates of regional Universities using surveys for a comprehensive assessment of the quality of graduate programs of the University with administrative data on the educational paths of graduates. © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.The reported study was funded by RFBR according to the research project No 18-311-00175

Modeling of the impact of migration attractiveness on the labor migration dynamics

The analysis of migration processes shows the need to simulate the dynamics of migration flows, to describe the trends in the redistribution of labor in the current period and to forecast for the short term. To estimate and predict labor migration flows in terms of different levels of the labor markets development we elaborated a dynamic multi-factor migration model. The model takes into account the assumptions of the positional games theory, which allows predicting the behavior of a potential migrant, depending on an amount of socio-economic factors. We emphasize, that labor migration is one of the major factors in the development of the labor markets and in the redistribution of qualified workforce between them. To ensure sustainable development and economic growth of socio-economic systems the inflow of migrants into a region should correspond to the labor resources demand of the labor market. According to the model idea, potential migrants have full information about the difference in living and working conditions both in the countries of origin and attraction of migrants, which allows describing the decision-making process in the model. To improve the predictive accuracy of the model, we developed a method of assessing the migration attractiveness of the region, based on the principle of differentiation of regional economic systems by the level of socio-economic benefits. We obtain the synthetic parameter of the model, describing the migration attractiveness of the region, by combining socio-economic indicators in a relative form, reflecting the degree of development of the social system and the labor market in the region. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract N 02.A03.21.0006

Fuzzy logic modeling software for educational paths data analysis

Recent trends in the global education system are leading to the increasing competition in the field of higher education, which represent a big challenge for the universities participating in major rankings such as QS and THE. To improve the efficiency of the University, it is necessary to adjust its educational trajectories and programs in such a way as to meet the expectations of the student and the needs of the labor market. To describe the individual choice of the educational path, we used an econometric model, which takes into account the economic motivation of a potential student. Based on this model, we made a reasonable forecast of the future professional choice of students and their future income. After evaluating the amount of possible alternative educational paths for students, we made an estimation of the probability of a student changing of educational path using fuzzy logic model of Mamdani type. According to this approach, the probability of changing the educational trajectory for the student is calculated based on panel data, taking into account the amount of possible directions of graduation and educational paths of the student, the possibility of budgetary support of the graduation and the expected level of wages after graduation. To estimate the probability we developed a set of rules of the fuzzy inference system, designed to simulate the human behavior of making the decision of change between one and another educational path. The proposed architecture of the educational process analysis system (EPAS) provides educational institutions with the opportunity to establish business rules in accordance with their own needs. Based on this model, it is possible to analyze the impact of students' choice on the economic sectors development. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract N 02.A03.21.0006

Optimization of the graduates labour market: dynamic modeling, Russian and foreign experience

The article substantiates the relevance and importance of constructing a model for optimizing the structure of graduate training and output by universities to meet the labour market needs, and presents a review of the literature focused on this issue. In addition, the authors examine the two existing approaches to determining the tools for achieving balance in the labour market: econometric, whereby the main criterion for assessing the quality of equilibrium is the wage level, and dynamic models. The authors present their own approach to constructing an optimization deterministic dynamic model that does not require knowing the probability characteristics of the process under consideration. The proposed solution is constructed using a deterministic approach in which the following vectors are formed: the phase vector, whose coordinates are the values of the parameters describing the training process in higher education institutions at a certain fixed point in time; the controlling action vector (control vector) that allows influencing (by means of funding, the school-leaving exam score required for admission and other parameters) the structure, volume and quality of university training on various degree courses (educational programs), as well as the corresponding deterministic restrictions. The construction of the optimisation model is realised in two stages. At the first stage, a discrete dynamic model is formed that describes the influence of the control vector on the parameters of the system parameters phase vector. At the second stage, restrictions are formed on the parameters of the mathematical model that take into account the labour market demand for university graduates, and the quality criteria (functionals) that allow evaluating the process under consideration at a set final point in time. © 201