A contextual framework for the development of a building sustainability assessment method for Iran

As one of the fastest growing countries in the Middle East, and the one most vulnerable to climate change, the main challenge now facing Iran today is how to house its growing population in a socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable way. However, in the absence of a national framework to guide the sustainable development of the built environment, responding to this challenge is problematic. The articulation of a comprehensive assessment method that would enable issues of sustainability to be addressed and incorporated within building construction projects is urgently required. The research that underpins this paper takes account of current tools in aiming to support the development of a national building sustainability assessment method (BSAM) for use in Iran that involves the identification of sources of impact, specific benchmarks, and priorities for a weighting system for assessment criteria. This paper profiles the basis of a contextual framework that will inform the development of such a regional-based tool, taking account of Iran’s current climate change adaptation policies and priorities, its environmental conditions and socio-economic challenges, building typologies, standards and benchmarks

What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of normal volatility dynamics and macro-economic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the VIX and the credit spreads while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this methodology to monthly data from both Germany and the US. We find that implied volatilities contain a substantial amount of information regarding risk aversion whereas credit spreads have a lot to say about both risk aversion and uncertainty. Moreover, there is a significant comovement in the German and US risk aversion. JEL Classification:Credit Spread, Economic uncertainty, risk aversion, Time variation in risk and return, Volatility dynamics

Risky single occasion drinking frequency and alcohol-related consequences: can abstinence during early adulthood lead to alcohol problems?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: the main purpose of this longitudinal study was to determine the impact of risky single occasion drinking (RSOD) frequency on alcohol dependence and drinking consequences reported 15 months later. METHODS: As a baseline sample, 5,990 young men were assessed on their drinking habits including the frequency of RSOD. Of them, 5,196 were reassessed at follow-up 15 months later on RSOD frequency, alcohol dependence and alcohol related consequences in thze interceding year. Drop out biases were investigated. RESULTS: Around 45% of the baseline participants reported regular RSOD (every month or more frequently). Despite the fact that RSOD distribution was generally stable during the initial sample, 47.4% reported a variation of their RSOD frequency 15 months later. Around 25% of the sample reported reduced RSOD frequency. Nonetheless, occasional RS drinkers were more likely to become regular (monthly) RSO drinkers at follow up. Daily and weekly RSOD were associated with high proportions of alcohol dependence and detrimental consequences of drinking. Surprisingly, abstainers at baseline were more likely to be at risk of alcohol dependence and consequences at follow up than non-RSO drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the fact that alcohol abstinence is logically the best way to avoid the detrimental consequences of alcohol drinking, abstainers at baseline reported as many problems due to alcohol use at follow up as occasional or monthly RSO drinkers. The few participants who had become RSO drinkers during the follow up period were indeed likely to engage in detrimental behaviour. Non-RSO drinkers had the fewest problems due to alcohol use. This substantiates the early occurrence of drinking consequences among inexperienced RSO drinkers

Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective.

New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been exten-sively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macro-economic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check identification requires specifying the process for the forcing variables (typically the output gap) and solving the model for inflation in terms of the observables. In practice, the equation is estimated by GMM, relying on statistical criteria to choose instruments. This may result in failure of identification or weak instruments. Secondly, the NKPC is usually derived as a part of a DSGE model, solved by log-linearising around a steady state and the variables are then measured in terms of deviations from the steady state. In practice the steady states, e.g. for output, are usually estimated by some statistical procedure such as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter that might not be appropriate. Thirdly, there are arguments that other variables, e.g. interest rates, foreign inflation and foreign output gaps should enter the Phillips curve. This paper examines these three issues and argues that all three benefit from a global perspective. The global per-spective provides additional instruments to alleviate the weak instrument problem, yields a theoretically consistent measure of the steady state and provides a natural route for foreign inflation or output gap to enter the NKPC

Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks.

This paper considers a stylized asset pricing model where the returns from exchange rates, stocks and bonds are linked by basic risk-arbitrage relationships. Employing GMM estimation and monthly data for 18 economies and the US (treated as the domestic country), we identify through a simple test the countries whose assets strongly comove with US assets and the countries whose assets might other larger diversification benefits. We also show that the strengthening of the comovement of returns across countries is neither a gradual process nor a global phenomenon, reinforcing the case for international diversification. However, our results suggest that fund managers are better other constructing portfolios selecting assets from a subset of countries than relying on either fully inter-nationally diversified or purely domestic portfolios. JEL Classification: F31, G10asset pricing, Exchange Rates, international parity conditions, market integration, stochastic discount factor

Sticky wages: evidence from quarterly microeconomic data

This paper documents nominal wage stickiness using an original quarterly firm-level dataset. We use the ACEMO survey, which reports the base wage for up to 12 employee categories in French firms over the period 1998 to 2005, and obtain the following main results. First, the quarterly frequency of wage change is around 35 percent. Second, there is some downward rigidity in the base wage. Third, wage changes are mainly synchronized within firms but to a large extent staggered across firms. Fourth, standard Calvo or Taylor schemes fail to match micro wage adjustment patterns, but fixed duration "Taylor-like" wage contracts are observed for a minority of firms. Based on a two-thresholds sample selection model, we perform an econometric analysis of wage changes. Our results suggest that the timing of wage adjustments is not state-dependent, and are consistent with existence of predetermined of wage changes. They also suggest that both backward- and forward-looking behavior is relevant in wage setting. JEL Classification: E24, J3wage predetermination, Wage stickiness

Epstein-Zin preferences and their use in macro-finance models: implications for optimal monetary policy

Epstein-Zin preferences have attracted significant attention within the macro-finance literature based on DSGE models as they allow to substantially increase risk aversion, and consequently generate non-trivial risk premia, without compromising the ability of standard models to achieve satisfactory macroeconomic data coherence. Such appealing features certainly hold for structural modelling frameworks where monetary policy is set according to Taylor-type rules or seeks to minimize an ad hoc loss function under commitment. However, Epstein-Zin preferences may have significant quantitative implications for both asset pricing and macroeconomic allocation under a welfare-based monetary policy conduct. Against this background, the paper focuses on the impact of such preferences on the Ramsey approach to monetary policy within a medium-scale model based on Smets and Wouters (2007) including a wide range of nominal and real frictions that have proven to be relevant for quantitative business cycle analysis. After setting an empirical benchmark that generates a mean value of 100 bp for the ten-year term premium, we show that Epstein-Zin preferences significantly affect the macroeconomic outcome when optimal policy is considered. The level and the dynamic pattern of risk premia are also markedly altered. We show that the effect of Epstein-Zin preferences is extremely sensitive to the presence of real rigidities in the form of quasi-kinked demands. We also analyse how this effect can be linked to a combined e¤ect of capital accumulation and wage rigidities. JEL Classification: E44, E52, E61, G12macroeconometric equivalence, non time-separable preferences, optimal monetary policy, term premium

Calorimetry for low-energy electrons using charge and light in liquid argon

Precise calorimetric reconstruction of 5–50 MeV electrons in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) will enable the study of astrophysical neutrinos in DUNE and could enhance the physics reach of oscillation analyses. Liquid argon scintillation light has the potential to improve energy reconstruction for low-energy electrons over charge-based measurements alone. Here we demonstrate light-augmented calorimetry for low-energy electrons in a single-phase LArTPC using a sample of Michel electrons from decays of stopping cosmic muons in the LArIAT experiment at Fermilab. Michel electron energy spectra are reconstructed using both a traditional charge-based approach as well as a more holistic approach that incorporates both charge and light. A maximum-likelihood fitter, using LArIAT’s well-tuned simulation, is developed for combining these quantities to achieve optimal energy resolution. A sample of isolated electrons is simulated to better determine the energy resolution expected for astrophysical electron-neutrino charged-current interaction final states. In LArIAT, which has very low wire noise and an average light yield of 18  pe/MeV, an energy resolution of σ/E≃9.3%/√E⊕1.3% is achieved. Samples are then generated with varying wire noise levels and light yields to gauge the impact of light-augmented calorimetry in larger LArTPCs. At a charge-readout signal-to-noise of S/N≃30, for example, the energy resolution for electrons below 40 MeV is improved by ≈10%, ≈20%, and ≈40% over charge-only calorimetry for average light yields of 10  pe/MeV, 20  pe/MeV, and 100  pe/MeV, respectively.https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.07920Othe

Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks.

This paper considers a stylized asset pricing model where the returns from exchange rates, stocks and bonds are linked by basic risk-arbitrage relationships. Employing GMM estimation and monthly data for 18 economies and the US (treated as the domestic country), we identify through a simple test the countries whose assets strongly comove with US assets and the countries whose assets might other larger diversification benefits. We also show that the strengthening of the comovement of returns across countries is neither a gradual process nor a global phenomenon, reinforcing the case for international diversification. However, our results suggest that fund managers are better other constructing portfolios selecting assets from a subset of countries than relying on either fully inter-nationally diversified or purely domestic portfolios

What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of normal volatility dynamics and macro-economic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the VIX and the credit spreads while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this methodology to monthly data from both Germany and the US. We find that implied volatilities contain a substantial amount of information regarding risk aversion whereas credit spreads have a lot to say about both risk aversion and uncertainty. Moreover, there is a significant comovement in the German and US risk aversion