What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of normal volatility dynamics and macro-economic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the VIX and the credit spreads while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this methodology to monthly data from both Germany and the US. We find that implied volatilities contain a substantial amount of information regarding risk aversion whereas credit spreads have a lot to say about both risk aversion and uncertainty. Moreover, there is a significant comovement in the German and US risk aversion. JEL Classification:Credit Spread, Economic uncertainty, risk aversion, Time variation in risk and return, Volatility dynamics

A contextual framework for the development of a building sustainability assessment method for Iran

As one of the fastest growing countries in the Middle East, and the one most vulnerable to climate change, the main challenge now facing Iran today is how to house its growing population in a socially, economically, and environmentally sustainable way. However, in the absence of a national framework to guide the sustainable development of the built environment, responding to this challenge is problematic. The articulation of a comprehensive assessment method that would enable issues of sustainability to be addressed and incorporated within building construction projects is urgently required. The research that underpins this paper takes account of current tools in aiming to support the development of a national building sustainability assessment method (BSAM) for use in Iran that involves the identification of sources of impact, specific benchmarks, and priorities for a weighting system for assessment criteria. This paper profiles the basis of a contextual framework that will inform the development of such a regional-based tool, taking account of Iran’s current climate change adaptation policies and priorities, its environmental conditions and socio-economic challenges, building typologies, standards and benchmarks

Sticky wages: evidence from quarterly microeconomic data

This paper documents nominal wage stickiness using an original quarterly firm-level dataset. We use the ACEMO survey, which reports the base wage for up to 12 employee categories in French firms over the period 1998 to 2005, and obtain the following main results. First, the quarterly frequency of wage change is around 35 percent. Second, there is some downward rigidity in the base wage. Third, wage changes are mainly synchronized within firms but to a large extent staggered across firms. Fourth, standard Calvo or Taylor schemes fail to match micro wage adjustment patterns, but fixed duration "Taylor-like" wage contracts are observed for a minority of firms. Based on a two-thresholds sample selection model, we perform an econometric analysis of wage changes. Our results suggest that the timing of wage adjustments is not state-dependent, and are consistent with existence of predetermined of wage changes. They also suggest that both backward- and forward-looking behavior is relevant in wage setting. JEL Classification: E24, J3wage predetermination, Wage stickiness

Identification of new Keynesian Phillips Curves from a global perspective.

New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been exten-sively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macro-economic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check identification requires specifying the process for the forcing variables (typically the output gap) and solving the model for inflation in terms of the observables. In practice, the equation is estimated by GMM, relying on statistical criteria to choose instruments. This may result in failure of identification or weak instruments. Secondly, the NKPC is usually derived as a part of a DSGE model, solved by log-linearising around a steady state and the variables are then measured in terms of deviations from the steady state. In practice the steady states, e.g. for output, are usually estimated by some statistical procedure such as the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter that might not be appropriate. Thirdly, there are arguments that other variables, e.g. interest rates, foreign inflation and foreign output gaps should enter the Phillips curve. This paper examines these three issues and argues that all three benefit from a global perspective. The global per-spective provides additional instruments to alleviate the weak instrument problem, yields a theoretically consistent measure of the steady state and provides a natural route for foreign inflation or output gap to enter the NKPC

What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of normal volatility dynamics and macro-economic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the VIX and the credit spreads while controlling for realized volatility, expectations about the macroeconomic outlook, and interest rates. We apply this methodology to monthly data from both Germany and the US. We find that implied volatilities contain a substantial amount of information regarding risk aversion whereas credit spreads have a lot to say about both risk aversion and uncertainty. Moreover, there is a significant comovement in the German and US risk aversion

Environmental Determinants of the Distribution and Abundance of the Ants, Lasiophanes picinus and L. valdiviensis, in Argentina

The distribution and abundance variation of the terrestrial ants, Lasiophanes picinus and Lasiophanes valdiviensis Emery (Formicinae: Lasiini), which are endemic in Patagonia (Argentina and Chile), are described and a set of environmental factors are examined to explain the observed patterns. Ants were collected using 450 pitfall traps arranged in 50, 100 m2 grid plots each with nine traps within a roughly 150 × 150 km area representative of the subantartic-patagonian transition of Argentina. Five sampling periods each 8-days long were carried out between November 2004 and March 2006. To understand the distributional patterns and their link to environmental variables discriminant analysis was used. Path analysis was performed to test for direct and indirect effects of a set of environmental variables on species abundance variation. L. picinus was more frequently captured and attained higher abundance in the forests, while L. valdiviensis was more frequently captured and more abundant in the scrubs. The maximum daily temperature and mean annual precipitation explained L. picinus distribution (i.e. presence or absence) with an accuracy of 90%. L. valdiviensis distribution was predicted with almost 70% accuracy, taking into account herbal richness. The maximum daily temperature was the only climatic variable that affected ant abundance directly; an increase in temperature led to an increase of L. picinus abundance and a decrease of L. valdiviensis abundance. The amount of resources, as indicated by the percent plant cover, explained the variation of the abundance of both species better than the variety of resources as indicated by plant richness (i.e. models including plant richness had low fit or no fit at all). A direct effect of habitat use by cattle was found, as indicated by the amount of feces in the plots, only when variables related to the amount of resources were replaced by variables with less explanatory power related to the variety of resources. This study provides new data on the ecology of Lasiophanes species in relation to existing hypotheses proposed to explain patterns of abundance variation. Evidence is provided that changes in temperature (i.e. global climate change) may have important consequences on populations of these species

The Effects of Adverse Childhood Experiences on the Future of Our Youth

22.3 percent.1 This is the percentage of the population of the United States under the age of 18. These three words should come to mind: growth, family, and safety. Unfortunately, just because these words come to mind, does not mean these are a reality for our youth. The Adverse Childhood Experience (ACEs) study explores our youth’s mental, emotional, and social well-being across a wide sample with some disturbing results. As we de-code what exactly ACEs entails, we can learn to predict, diagnose, and ultimately prevent negative environments our youth are involved in. Prioritizing these prevention efforts can eventually lead to the avoidance altogether of these adverse experiences resulting in a residual rise in positive change for this 22.3 percent. This effort does not stand alone but does begin somewhere, and somewhere is you, YOU being the parents

Is There Heterogeneity in the Response of Consumption to Income Shocks?

While recently more and more research has focused on the aggregate response of consumption to income shocks, little is known about how this response differs for households at different ends of the income distribution. This paper investigates how consumption reacts to transitory and permanent shocks to disposable income for households with an income above or below the median. Panel data on income and consumption from the PSID between 1998 and 2012 is used to estimate consumption insurance parameters. Although households below the median are found to be exposed to larger transitory and permanent income shocks, they can buffer permanent shocks to income significantly better compared to households above the median. The latter, though, are better insured against transitory income shocks. In general, the poorer households are, the more similarly they react to the two kinds of income shocks.Während sich viele Studien mit der durchschnittlichen Reaktion des Konsums auf Einkommensschocks befassen, ist wenig darüber bekannt, ob und wie sich diese Reaktion für Haushalte unterscheidet, die sich an unterschiedlichen Positionen in der Einkommensverteilung befinden. Diese Arbeit untersucht, wie Haushalte oberhalb und unterhalb des Medians ihren Konsum nach transitorischen und permanenten Schocks des verfügbaren Einkommens anpassen. Paneldaten des PSID zu Einkommen und Konsum für die Jahre von 1998 bis 2012 werden verwendet, um Konsumversicherungsparameter zu schätzen. Obwohl Haushalte unterhalb des Medians größeren transitorischen und permanenten Einkommensschocks ausgesetzt sind, gelingt es ihnen signifikant besser als Haushalten oberhalb des Medians, permanente Schocks abzufedern. Letztere sind aber besser in der Lage, transitorische Einkommensschocks zu bewältigen. Insgesamt zeigt sich, dass Haushalte umso ähnlicher auf beide Arten von Einkommensschocks reagieren, je ärmer sie sind

The distribution of Elatine hexandra (Lapierre) DC. (Elatinaceae)

General distribution map of Elatine hexandra (Lapierre) DC. was made based on literature and web-based data confronted and possible reasons of the formation of taxon's distribution range and history are discussed

Distributional Patterns of Pseudacteon Associated with the Solenopsis saevissima Complex in South America

Classical biological control efforts against imported fire ants have largely involved the use of Pseudacteon parasitoids. To facilitate further exploration for species and population biotypes a database of collection records for Pseudacteon species was organized, including those from the literature and other sources. These data were then used to map the geographical ranges of species associated with the imported fire ants in their native range in South America. In addition, we found geographical range metrics for all species in the genus and related these metrics to latitude and host use. Approximately equal numbers of Pseudacteon species were found in temperate and tropical regions, though the majority of taxa found only in temperate areas were found in the Northern Hemisphere. No significant differences in sizes of geographical ranges were found between Pseudacteon associated with the different host complexes of fire ants despite the much larger and systemic collection effort associated with the S. saevissima host group. The geographical range of the flies was loosely associated with both the number of hosts and the geographical range of their hosts. Pseudacteon with the most extensive ranges had either multiple hosts or hosts with broad distributions. Mean species richnesses of Pseudacteon in locality species assemblages associated with S. saevissima complex ants was 2.8 species, but intensively sampled locations were usually much higher. Possible factors are discussed related to variation in the size of geographical range, and areas in southern South America are outlined that are likely to have been under-explored for Pseudacteon associated with imported fire ants