Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Exchange Rate Systems, Surveillance, and Advice

This paper draws together some lessons and questions about exchange rate systems and attempts to state what is known and what is not known about them. It begins by revisiting the bipolar issue with regard to exchange rates, restating the hypothesis and updating it in light of events of this decade, arguing that the bipolar view is fundamentally correct for emerging market and industrialized countries with open capital accounts. It also examines the choice of exchange rate regime for countries with capital accounts that are not open, and managed floating regimes and exchange market intervention for countries with open capital accounts. Concluding remarks provide comments and advice for IMF surveillance. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 367–383. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.12; published online 1 July 2008

The pro-cyclical effects of accounting rules on Basel III liquidity regulation

Basel III introduces the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) to enhance bank liquidity regulation. This paper investigates whether accounting rules have pro-cyclical effects on these liquidity requirements. By rearranging and simplifying the formulae for the LCR and the NSFR, the paper analyses the linkages among accounting rules, capital rules and liquidity ratios. Due to these linkages, recurring fair value measurements are found to have pro-cyclical effects on both the LCR and the NSFR whereas the provision for loan losses is found to have positive effects on the NSFR although it has little impact on the LCR. The expected loss (EL) model for loan loss provisioning will introduce a new pro-cyclical impact on the NSFR even though it will lessen the pro-cyclical impact of the incurred-loss impairment model on the leverage ratio. Therefore, the contribution of accounting rules to the pro-cyclicality in the regulatory system will be enhanced as the paper also finds that the Basel III liquidity rules and the Basel III capital rules will reinforce each other’s pro-cyclicality