3 research outputs found
ํ๊ตญ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ๊ณผ ๋ถ์ฑ, ์๋น ๋ถ์
ํ์๋
ผ๋ฌธ(๋ฐ์ฌ)--์์ธ๋ํ๊ต ๋ํ์ :์ฌํ๊ณผํ๋ํ ๊ฒฝ์ ํ๋ถ,2019. 8. ๊น์์.๋ณธ ์ฐ๊ตฌ๋ ํ๊ตญ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ๋ฏธ์ ๋ฐ์ดํฐ๋ฅผ ์ด์ฉํ์ฌ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ๋ถ์ฑ, ์๋, ์๋น ๊ฐ ๊ด๊ณ๋ฅผ ๋ถ์ํ์๋ค. ๋ถ์ ๋ฐ์ดํฐ๋ ํ๊ตญ ํต๊ณ์ฒญ์ด ์ฃผ๊ดํ์ฌ ์์ฑํ๊ณ ์๋ ๊ฐ๊ณ๊ธ์ต๋ณต์ง์กฐ์ฌ์ 2012๋
๋ถํฐ 2017๋
๊น์ง์ ์๋ฃ๋ฅผ ์ด์ฉํ์๋ค. ๋ณธ ์ฐ๊ตฌ๋ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ ๋ณํ๊ฐ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ๋ถ์ฑ ์กฐ๋ฌ ํํ์ ์๋น์ ๋ฏธ์น๋ ์ํฅ์ ๋ถ์ํ์๋ค๋ ์ ์์ ๊ธฐ์กด ์ฐ๊ตฌ์ ์ฐจ๋ณ์ ์ ๊ฐ์ง๋ค. ๋ณธ ์ฐ๊ตฌ์ ์ฃผ์ ๋ถ์ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ ๋ค์๊ณผ ๊ฐ๋ค.
์ฒซ์งธ๋ก ์ฐ๋ฆฌ๋ ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ ๋ณํ๊ฐ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ(leverage ratio)์ ๋ฏธ์น ์ํฅ์ ๋ถ์ํ์๋ค. ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ์ด ํ๋๋ ๊ฐ๊ณ๋ ๊ทธ๋ ์ง ์์๋ ๊ฐ๊ณ๋ณด๋ค ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ์ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒ ์ถ์ํ ๊ฒ์ผ๋ก ๋ํ๋ฌ๋ค. ๋ณด๋ค ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ผ๋ก ์ดํด๋ณด๋ฉด ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ์ด 1 ํ์คํธ์ฐจ ์ฆ๊ฐํ ๊ฒฝ์ฐ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ์ 1.3 ~ 1.5% ํฌ์ธํธ ํ๋ฝํ์๋ค. ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ ๋ณํ๊ฐ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ์ ๋ฏธ์น ์ํฅ์ ์ฐจ์
์ ์ฝ๊ณผ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ์ฐ๋ น ๋ฑ ์ฌํ๊ฒฝ์ ์ ํน์ฑ์ ๋ฐ๋ผ ๋ค๋ฅด๊ฒ ๋ํ๋ฌ๋ค. ์์ปจ๋ ์์์ฐ์ด ์ ์ ๊ฐ๊ณ๋ ์ฃผํ์ ์์ ํ์ง ์์ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ๊ฒฝ์ฐ ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ ๋ณํ์ ๋ํด ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ์ ๋ณด๋ค ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ๊ฒ ์กฐ์ ํ ๊ฒ์ผ๋ก ๋ํ๋ฌ๋ค.
๋ค์์ผ๋ก ์ฐ๋ฆฌ๋ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ์๋น ํจ์๋ฅผ ์ถ์ ํ๊ณ ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ ๋ณํ๊ฐ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ์๋น ํํ์ ๋ฏธ์น ์ํฅ์ ๋ถ์ํ์๋ค. ํ๊ท ์ ์ผ๋ก ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ์ ํฐ ๋ณํ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฝํํ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ์๋น ํ๋ ฅ์ฑ์ ๊ทธ๋ ์ง ์์ ๊ฐ๊ณ๋ณด๋ค ๋ฎ์ ๊ฒฝํฅ์ด ์์๋ค. ์ด๋ ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ์ ํฐ ๋ณํ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฝํํ ๊ฐ๊ณ๋ ๋น๊ธฐ์ ์๋ ๋ณํ๊ฐ ํญ๊ตฌ์ ๋ณํ๊ฐ ์๋ ์ผ์์ ๋ณํ์ธ ๊ฒ์ผ๋ก ๋ฐ์๋ค์ธ ๊ฒ์ผ๋ก ํด์ํ ์ ์๋ค. ํํธ, ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ์ ๋ณํ๊ฐ ์๋น์ ๋ฏธ์น ์ํฅ์ ์์ ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ์ ๋ณํ์์์ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ์ ์ฌํ๊ฒ ์ฐจ์
์ ์ฝ๊ณผ ๊ฐ๊ตฌ๋ณ ํน์ฑ์ ๋ฐ๋ฅธ ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ๋ณด์๋ค.
์ด๋ ๊ฐ๊ณ๊ฐ ์ธ์ ์์ฐ๊ณผ ๊ธ์ต/์ค๋ฌผ ์์์ฐ ๋ฆฌ์คํฌ๋ฅผ ์ข
ํฉ์ ์ผ๋ก ๊ด๋ฆฌํจ์ ๋ฐ๋ผ ์ธ์ ์์ฐ ๋ฆฌ์คํฌ ํ๋์ ๋ํด ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ ์ถ์๋ฅผ ํตํ ๊ธ์ต/์ค๋ฌผ ์์์ฐ ๊ด๋ จ ๋ฆฌ์คํฌ ์ถ์๋ก ๋์ํ ๊ฒ์ ์์ฌํ๋ค. ์ด๋ฌํ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ ๊ธ์ต๊ธฐ๊ด์ด ๊ณ ๊ฐ์ ์์ฐ ํฌํธํด๋ฆฌ์ค์ ๋ํ ์กฐ์ธ๋ฟ๋ง ์๋๋ผ ์ต์ ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ์ ๋ํ ์กฐ์ธ๋ ๊ฐ๋ฅํ ์ ์์์ ์์ฌํ๋ค. ๋ํ ๊ฐ๊ณ์ ์๋ ๋ณ๋์ฑ ๋ณํ๊ฐ ์๋ ํจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ํตํด ์๋น์ ์ง์ ์ ์ํฅ์ ๋ฏธ์น๋ ๊ฒฝ๋ก ์ธ์๋ ๋ถ์ฑ ๋น์จ ์ถ์ ๊ณผ์ ์์ ๋ถ์ฑ ์ํ ๋ถ๋ด์ด ๋์ด๋จ์ ๋ฐ๋ฅธ ์์ฒ๋ถ๊ฐ๋ฅ์๋ ๊ฐ์ ๊ฒฝ๋ก๋ฅผ ํตํด์๋ ๊ฐ๊ณ ์๋น์ ์ํฅ์ ๋ฏธ์น ์ ์์์ ์์ฌํ๋ค.In this paper, we examine the effects of income volatility changes on households leverage and consumption. We use the Survey of Household Finances and Living Conditions (SFLC) from year 2012 to year 2017 data. The main findings are as follow:
First, households who faced increased income volatility lowered their leverage ratio. For example, a one standard deviation increase in income volatility was associated with 1.3 ~ 1.5 percentage point decrease in the leverage ratio. The effects of income volatility changes on households leverage choices varied among different household groups. Potentially borrowing-constrained households and households with net-short position in their real estate assets lowered leverage ratio more quickly. This indicates households leverage ratio responses to income volatility changes were affected by supply-side factors like borrowing-constraints; as well as demand-side factors like households precautionary-saving motives. The demand-side factors in leverage ratio responses may reflect households risk management incentives where they adjusted their financial net wealth risk exposure when faced with increased human wealth uncertainty.
Second, when faced with enlarged income uncertainty, households income coefficients on consumption were lowered. The income coefficient of average households was estimated to be around 0.16, while households with increased income volatility were around 0.12. In particular, similar to the relations in leverage ratio changes, consumptions among potentially borrowing-constrained households and those with net-short position in real estate assets were more affected by increases in income volatility. This can be understood that households smoothed their consumption during the periods of increased income volatility, and this was shown in the smaller consumption elasticity on income.
Combining household leverage and consumption choices in response to income volatility changes, there may exist two transmission channels for income uncertainty changes in consumption. The first one is, by precautionary saving motives and consumption smoothing motives, households adjust their consumption less to the changes of income, when they face increased income volatility. The second channel is through households deleveraging. Faced with increased income volatility, households lower the risk exposure of their financial net wealth by lowering their leverage ratio. Thus, households net disposable income may decrease as they deleverage and increased debt-servicing burdens hinder consumptions. In light of this relationship, financial institutions may advise on households optimal leverage choices before they face abrupt deleveraging needs which may be accompanied by considerable disutility. From a macroeconomic perspective, this indicates the possibility that considering households risk management incentives between human wealth and financial net wealth, precautionary saving motives from increased income uncertainty may be reinforced. Accordingly, an economy with huge household debts, such as Korea, would be more vulnerable to the income uncertainty change shocks, since households may face more deleveraging needs that undermine net-disposable income.1. Introduction ๏ผ
1.1. Study background ๏ผ
1.2. Previous studies and purpose of research ๏ผ
2. Household Income Volatility and Leverage ๏ผ
2.1. Data ๏ผ
2.2. Household income volatility change ๏ผ
2.3. Leverage ratio ๏ผ๏ผ
2.4. Response of leverage ratio ๏ผ๏ผ
2.5. Borrowing constraints and leverage response ๏ผ๏ผ
2.6. Heterogeneity across groups ๏ผ๏ผ
2.7. Robustness check ๏ผ๏ผ
2.8. Section summary ๏ผ๏ผ
3. Household Leverage and Consumption ๏ผ๏ผ
3.1. Data and stylized consumption patterns ๏ผ๏ผ
3.2. Baseline regression ๏ผ๏ผ
3.3. Income volatility changes and consumption ๏ผ๏ผ
3.4. Borrowing constraints and consumption ๏ผ๏ผ
3.5. Heterogeneity across groups and consumptions ๏ผ๏ผ
3.6. Section summary ๏ผ๏ผ
4. Concluding Remarks ๏ผ๏ผ
Bibliography ๏ผ๏ผ
Appendices ๏ผ๏ผ
A1. Various income measures and descriptive statistics ๏ผ๏ผ
A2. Sample selection bias and coefficient of โSDi ๏ผ๏ผ
A3. Asymmetric effects of income volatility changes ๏ผ๏ผ
A4. Income volatility of various job industry ๏ผ๏ผ
A5. An example of SFLC datasets structural break ๏ผ๏ผ
A6. Consumption equation estimation ๏ผ๏ผ๏ผ
Abstract in Korean (๊ตญ๋ฌธ ์ด๋ก) ๏ผ๏ผ๏ผDocto
Supplementary budget rule and budget deficit
ํ์๋
ผ๋ฌธ(์์ฌ) --์์ธ๋ํ๊ต ๋ํ์ :๊ฒฝ์ ํ๋ถ ๊ฒฝ์ ํ์ ๊ณต,2006.Maste