Analysis of industrial development situation and influence factor of Tarim basin

论文主要是采取实证分析、多学科综合分析法，比较研究和相关分析的方法，以系统、深入的数据来支撑所形成的结论是论文的主要特色。全文共分为了六个章节，其中，二、三、四、五是文章的重点。论文首先是回顾和梳理配第、克拉克、库兹涅茨、钱纳里等早期从事产业经济理论研究经济学家的研究成果。其次，在分析塔河现有的地区状况的基础上，研究采用偏离—份额分析法对塔里木河流域产业结构经济效益和竞争力进行分析研究，划分为三种类型：巴州属于绝对优势区，阿克苏地区和喀什地区属于相对优势区，克州属于相对劣势区，和田地区属于绝对劣势区。还对其内部三次产业的竞争力也做了研究。再次，对塔河流域产业演进的阶段进行分析和评价，将塔河流域地区产业结构的演变分三个阶段，并判断塔河流域产业发展仍旧处于工业化初级阶段。总结塔河流域产业结构演进的模式仍旧以资源依赖为主，且受人口、经济水平和制度的影响都很大，并总结了三次产业结构转换的驱动力。在对总体产业结构驱动力分析的基础上，深入产业内部结构进行探析，得出塔里木河流域农业产业结构的影响因素主要是受机械化和科技影响，二产主要受资本投入、政策和技术影响，三产主要受技术和经济水平的影响。并根据结果，探求优化其产业结构的主要方向。最后，得出文章的主要结论，以进行探讨和展望。This article used empirical analysis, compare research ，the multi-discipinary synthesis analytic method,the correlation analytic and so mo many kinds of methods, and in-depth data to support the thesis formed the conclusion is the main features. The full text is divided into six chapters, of which the second,the third , the fouth, and the fifth part are the focus of the article. First, the papers reviewed and combing Petty, Clark, Kuznets, Ciannelli, and other industries in the early theoretical research economist, the economic research results. Secondly, On the basis of the analysis of the conditions of the region in Tarim Basin, explore the use of deviation - share analysis of the Tarim River Basin industrial economic efficiency and competitiveness of the analysis of research, the conclution divided into three types: Bayingolin Mongolia Autonomous has the predominance utterly. Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous has the inferior comparatively. Kashi and Aksu have the predominance comparatively. Hotan has the inferior utterly. Third, the analysis and evaluation used on the Tarim Basin stage of the evolution of industry, the Tarim Basin in the industrial structure evolved in three stages, and judgement of industrial development shows that the Tarim Basin is still in the initial stage of industrialization phase.The evolution of the industrial structure model in Tarim Basin is still mainly rely on the resources, and the impact of the demographic, economic levels on the system are great, and summed up the driving force on the three industrial conversion. In the overall driving force of the industrial structure ,on the basis of in-depth internal structure of industry, the Tarim River valley that the impact of the industrial structure of agriculture is the main factor affecting mechanization and technology, the impact of the industrial structure of production is mainly inputs and technology, the impact of the industrial structure of the three major production is technology and economic levels. Based on the results, seek to optimize their industrial structure of the main directions. Finally, the questions which as well as needed further to discuss to this paper main findings has carried on the esplanation

塔里木河流域产业结构经济效益比较研究

应用偏离-份额分析方法,对塔里木河流域的5个地区1980-2005年的产业结构的变化进行比较分析,提取了各地区在产业结构效益和竞争力效益方面的优劣势信息,研究结果显示:塔里木河流域经济增长的拉动作用是各区产业增长的主要因素。巴音郭楞蒙古自治州属于绝对优势区,阿克苏地区和喀什地区属于相对优势区,克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州属于相对劣势区,和田地区属于绝对劣势区;重点分析了2000-2005年产业结构内部对地区经济增长的影响:塔里木河流域产业结构总体二三产业发展较快,第一产业发展较慢;三次产业均扩张的有巴州和克州;第二、三产业相对扩张的地区有喀什地区;第三产业处于相对扩张而第一、二产业处于相对收缩的地区是和田地区;三次产业均处于收缩状态的是阿克苏地区,并剖析了其影响因素。针对两种影响因素构成空间的组合方式,从产业结构角度提出推进塔里木河流域区域经济增长的建议

干旱区绿洲城市城市化与生态环境耦合——以乌鲁木齐为例

本文以乌鲁木齐为例,利用灰色关联方法,对干旱区绿洲城市的城市化进程和生态环境响应的耦合关系进行评价与分析,在乌鲁木齐城市化对生态环境的影响过程中,空间城市化对生态环境的作用最为明显,社会城市化和经济城市化对生态环境的作用相对小一些,而人口城市化对生态环境的关联度仅为0.59,对于干旱区绿洲城市来说人口对于生态环境的影响最小;生态环境对城市化的束缚作用主要表现为大气、水、土环境产生不同程度的胁迫效应,资源能源、生态条件对于城市化的制约和限制作用最为明显,生态环境综合治理对于城市化进程起着很大的促进作用,生态环境污染对于干旱区绿洲城市的胁迫作用相对较小。最后得出结论:乌鲁木齐市城市化与生态环境的耦合目前正处于缓慢变化阶段,属于逐步磨合型