Influencing Indicators and Quantitative Assessment of Water Resources Security in Karst Region Based on PSER Model—The Case of Guizhou

An important basis to achieve a sustainable balance between water availability and demand is effectively identifying the factors affecting water resource security and evaluating the effectiveness of existing water resource management measures. To reasonably evaluate water resource security in Guizhou Province, this study combined the water resource security features, selected the indicator system based on the Press–Status–Effect–Response (PSER) framework, and used Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and grey correlation analysis for the province from 2001 to 2015. This allowed us to identify the main driving factors affecting water resource security. The results showed that: (1) Water resource security in Guizhou Province showed an overall trend of improvement from 2001 to 2015 and reached a maximum index of 0.57 in 2015. This amelioration in water security was mainly due to the continuous improvement of the response and effect subgroup as a result of improvements in its existing subgroup factors (policies), such as water consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), the proportion of water conservancy investment, and the proportion of the tertiary industry. Increased water stress due to rapid economic development, such as water supply for the reservoir, and the instability of the status subgroup, were the main factors negatively affecting water resource security. (2) Reduction of water consumption per USD of industrial value added, the control force of water and soil erosion being strengthened, and investment in water resources being increased, are the key factors for achieving water resource security in Guizhou during this period of rapid social and economic development. This indicates that the existing water resource management measures have been improving water resource security. The management measures need to be further improved in the future to protect water resource

Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis

Abstract The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.</jats:p