Influencing Factors on Elders Preference for Supporting: Application of an adaptive LASSO logistic Model

目的探讨adaptive LASSO; logistic回归模型在老年人养老意愿影响因素研究中的应用。方法基于厦门市60岁及以上老年人口的多阶段整群抽样调查数据,建立老年人养老意愿影响; 因素的adaptive LASSO; logistic回归模型,通过交叉验证法选择模型中的调和参数lambda;通过与全变量和逐步logistic回归结果的比较,探讨adaptive; LASSO; logistic回归模型的优势。结果共纳入1244名老年人,其养老意愿为家庭养老、社区居家养老和机构养老的比例分别为70.0%、21.1%和8.; 9%。交叉验证法选择的lambda为0.018;此时adaptive LASSO; logistic回归模型纳入的自变量为居住地、年龄、婚姻状况、文化程度、子女数、每月退休金收入、公费医疗和住院情况;; BIC和AIC分别为1931、1888,均低于全变量logistic回归(2077、1923)和逐步logistic回归(2025、1912); 。结论adaptive LASSO logistic回归模型可用于老年人养老意愿影响因素研究。老年人的养老意愿受多个因素影响。Objective This study was aimed to analyze influencing factors on elders; preference for supporting in case to provide evidence for diversified; elderly supporting. Methods This article applied an adaptive LASSO; logistic model to the multi-stage cluster sampling data of the; population aged 60 or older in Xiamen to analyze influencing factors on; elders preference for supporting. Cross validation method was used to; choose lambda for adaptive LASSO logistic model. In addition,we; evaluated the model fitting of adaptive LASSO logistic model by; comparing the BIC and AIC with full logistic model and stepwise logistic; model. Results The cross validation method resulted in lambda = 0.018; for adaptive LASSO logistic model, in which variables retained were; residence, age,marital status, education level,number of children, the; monthly pension income,medical insurance and hospitalization. BIC of; adaptive LASSO logistic model,full logistic model and stepwise logistic; model were 1931, 2077and 2025 respectively. And AIC of the three models; were 1888, 1923 and 1912 respectively. Conclusion Compared to full; logistic model and stepwise logistic model, adaptive LASSO logistic; model was the best fitting model for influencing factors on elders; preference for supporting. Adaptive LASSO logistic model could be used; to analyze influencing factors on elders preference for supporting.; There were multiple factors which influenced elders preference for; supporting.厦门大学大学生创新创业训练计划项

Analysis on Influential Factors of the Preference for Old-age Support among Elder People in Urban and Rural Areas of Xiamen

目的研究城乡老年人养老意愿的影响因素,为优化配置养老资源和提高老年人生活质量提供依据。方法采用多阶段抽样方法对厦门市60岁以上常住老年人进行问卷; 调查,采用多分类logistic回归分析城乡老年人养老意愿影响因素。结果有效调查问卷城区652份、农村622份。城、乡老年人选择家庭养老、社区居; 家养老、机构养老和暂未考虑比例分别为67.5%、18.6%、12.7%、1.2%和71.1%、23.1%、4.7%、1.1%,差异有统计学意义(; P <0.05),且城乡老年人在文化程度、患慢性病、子女是否提供养老费、退休金以及距最近医疗单位的距离等方面分布差异也有统计学意义(P; <0.05)。以家庭养老为参照,城乡,年龄大于80岁者更倾向于机构养老(城、乡的OR(95% CI)分别为3.84(1.845; ~7.99)和3.64(1.07 ~12.47)),距最近医疗单位较远者倾向于社区居家养老(城、乡的OR(95% CI)分别为1.73(1.04; ~2.86)和2.12(1.31; ~3.42))。但城区老年人文化程度较高、退休金较多和子女有提供养老费者更愿意选择非家庭养老,而农村在婚老年人倾向于选择机构养老。结论城乡老年人; 养老意愿均以家庭养老为主,但农村老年人更倾向于社区居家养老,城区老年人更倾向于机构养老,城乡间的经济、文化差异是造成这种差异的主要原因。建议除强; 化家庭养老的功能外,应针对城乡差异合理配置城乡养老资源。Objective To study the influential factors about the preference for; old-age support among the urban and rural elder people,and provide; theoretical basis for optimum allocation of supporting resources along; with greater improvement of life quality for the aged. Methods Based on; the multi-stage sampling method,a survey was conducted among senior; residents older than 60 years old in Xiamen by means of questionnaire.; Chi-square test was used to compare the differences of basic information; between the elderly who lived in the urban and rural areas while; multinomial logistic regression played a role in analyzing the factors; which influenced the old people,s preference for old-age support.; Results 1274 valid questionnaires were obtained, including 652 from; urban and 622 from rural areas. The percentage of elderly people who; would like to live with family support, community-based support at; home,organization support or choice not-considered were 67. 5%,18.; 6%,12. 7% and 1. 2% in urban areas,and as for the countryside those were; 71. 1%,23. 1%,4. 7% and 1. 1%,which were statistically significant (P <; 0. 05). The differences between urban and rural old people were also; statistically significant on the aspects of their education levels,; condition of chronic diseases,pension costs from children,retirement; pension,distance from the nearest medical unit (P < 0. 05). To take; family support as reference,no matter in urban and rural areas,the; elderly older than 80 years old were more likely to choose organization; support;and people who lived far away from the nearest medical unit; would prefer community-based support at home. However,the urban old-aged; with higher education levels,more retirement pension and who got pension; from children were more likely to live without family support,while; rural old people who got married preferred organization support.; Conclusion Family support was the main choice for the elderly from both; urban and rural areas. However,the aging in countryside preferred; community-based support at home and urban old people tended to choose; organization support. The difference of local economy and culture; between urban and rural areas was the key reason. Therefore,apart from; strengthening the function of family support,pension resources should be; appropriately allocated aimed at those differences between urban and; rural areas.国家自然科学基金项目; 厦门大学大学生创新训练项

前胡甲素对小鼠局灶性脑缺血的保护作用

目的观察前胡甲素(Pd-Ia)对小鼠局灶性脑缺血损伤的保护作用及特点。方法线栓法制备小鼠大脑中动脉栓塞脑缺血损伤模型。Pd-Ia(1,5,10mg/kg)在缺血前0.5h腹腔给药1次;或在缺血前1,0.5h、缺血同时、再灌注同时、再灌后0.5h及再灌后1h各腹腔给予Pd-Ia5mg/kg。脑缺血1.5h,再灌注24h后,测定小鼠神经功能缺失评分、脑梗死体积、脑水肿等评定脑缺血损伤的指标;测定血清中丙二醛(MDA)和超氧化物岐化酶(SOD)的活性。结果Pd-Ia(5,10mg/kg)缺血前0.5h给药及Pd-Ia5mg/kg缺血前0.5h、缺血同时、再灌注同时及再灌后0.5h给药可明显改善小鼠神经功能损伤,减小脑梗死体积和减轻脑水肿程度,且以再灌注同时单次给药效果最为显著;Pd-Ia(5,10mg/kg)能够明显提高脑缺血损伤小鼠血清中SOD活性,降低MDA含量。结论Pd-Ia保护小鼠局灶性脑缺血急性损伤,最佳剂量为5mg/kg,最佳治疗时间点为再灌注同时;其保护脑缺血损伤的机制可能与抑制脂质过氧化、提高氧化酶的活性有关