Spatial-Temporal Variation and Mutation ofWind Speed in the

根据秦岭南北47个气象站1960~2011年逐月风速和气温资料,采用样条曲线插值法(Spline)、Pettitt突变点检验、气候倾向率和相关分析等方法对该区风速的空间分布、时空演变特征及其可能影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:①秦岭南北风速空间分布呈东高西低、北高南低格局,按其大小排序为秦岭以北>秦岭南坡>汉水流域>巴巫谷地。四季风速排序为春季>冬季>夏季>秋季,均以秦岭以北最大。②近52 a来,秦岭南北整体和各子区年平均风速呈现一致的显著下降趋势,下降最快的为秦岭南坡,最慢的为汉水流域。四季风速下降速率排序为冬季>春季>秋季>夏季。③年和季节尺度风速的突变集中出现在1969~1974、1978~1981和1990~1994年间,秦岭南北整体于1981年突变。④气象台站周边的城市化发展和风速测量仪器的更换都对风速的变化产生了一定影响,但都不是风速显著下降的主要原因,大气环流变化和气候变暖才是造成风速减小的可能原因。 更多还原Abstract：Wind speed time series have been subject to far fewer trend analysis than temperature and precipitationrecords, in part because of data homogeneity issues. However, understanding how evolution of the globalclimate system has been manifest as changes in near-surface wind regimes in the past and how near-surfacewind speed regimes might alter in the future is of great relevance to the insurance industry, the constructionand maritime industries, surface energy balance estimation, the community charged with mitigating coastal erosion,the agricultural industry, forest and infrastructure protection communities, and the burgeoning wind energyindustry. Based on the temperature and wind speed data between 1960 and 2011 in the northern and southernregion of Qinling Mountains, with the methods of Spline interpolation, Pettitt abrupt change point detectionas well as correlation analysis, the distribution pattern, spatial and temporal variation of wind speed aswell as the possible influential factors were analyzed. The result are as follows: 1) The wind speed presentedan pattern which was big in south and low in north, big in east and small in west. According to wind speed, theorder was northern and southern region of Qinling Mountains, Han River Basin and Ba-wu Valley , the orderof season was spring, winter, summer and autumn. 2) Wind speed decreased significantly in the whole regionand different sub-regions during the last 52 years, the decreasing rate in northern slope was the biggest and thesmallest one was in the Han River Basin.The order of decreasing rate was winter, spring, autumn and summer.In spring, the wind of 77% stations decreased; In summer, 70% stations decreased, which mainly located in theeast and north; In autumn, the increasing and decreasing stations accounted 23% and 77% respectively, but only9% of them reached significant level, most of them lied in Han River Basin and Ba-wu Valley. In winter, 83%(17%) stations showed downward(upward) trend, 70% of them reached significant level, which distributedevenly in different sub-regions. 3) The annual and seasonal abrupt change happened mainly in 3 periods, whichwere 1969-1974、1978-1981 and 1990-1994, the whole region was detected abrupt change in 1981. 4) The developmentof city construction and change of observational devices had some effect on wind speed change,however, regional current change and global warming were the main reasons for wind speed decreasing

Evaporation paradox in the northern and southern regions of the Qinling

&nbsp;潜在蒸散量(ET0)是大气蒸发的估计值,已经广泛应用于灌溉管理和无实测蒸发资料地区的估算。分析ET0的时空变化是研究水资源对气候变化响应的基础工作,同时对于农业水资源的优化利用也具有重要意义。根据秦岭南北47个气象站1960&mdash;2011年逐日数据,利用FAO Penman-Monteith公式计算出各站的潜在蒸散量(ET0),研究了气温、降水与ET0之间的长期变化趋势关系,对导致ET0下降的主要原因进行了讨论,着重对秦岭南北地区是否存在&quot;蒸发悖论&quot;进行验证。结果表明:(1)秦岭南北整体气温经历了先降后升的变化过程,1993年为突变年份,1960&mdash;1993年的降温速率和1994&mdash;2011年的升温速率均表现出由南向北递减的规律,1960&mdash;2011年整体升温速率由北向南递减。(2)1979年和1993年是ET0变化的转折点,以1979和1993为界ET0经历了&quot;升&mdash;降&mdash;降&quot;的变化阶段。1960&mdash;1979年仅汉水流域和巴巫谷地存在&quot;蒸发悖论&quot;现象,1980&mdash;1993、1994&mdash;2011和1960&mdash;2011年3个时段区域整体和各子区均发现了&quot;蒸发悖论&quot;现象。秋季后18a和52a整体以及冬季前34a... 更多还原</span