7,289 research outputs found
Data Mining of Online Genealogy Datasets for Revealing Lifespan Patterns in Human Population
Online genealogy datasets contain extensive information about millions of
people and their past and present family connections. This vast amount of data
can assist in identifying various patterns in human population. In this study,
we present methods and algorithms which can assist in identifying variations in
lifespan distributions of human population in the past centuries, in detecting
social and genetic features which correlate with human lifespan, and in
constructing predictive models of human lifespan based on various features
which can easily be extracted from genealogy datasets.
We have evaluated the presented methods and algorithms on a large online
genealogy dataset with over a million profiles and over 9 million connections,
all of which were collected from the WikiTree website. Our findings indicate
that significant but small positive correlations exist between the parents'
lifespan and their children's lifespan. Additionally, we found slightly higher
and significant correlations between the lifespans of spouses. We also
discovered a very small positive and significant correlation between longevity
and reproductive success in males, and a small and significant negative
correlation between longevity and reproductive success in females. Moreover,
our machine learning algorithms presented better than random classification
results in predicting which people who outlive the age of 50 will also outlive
the age of 80.
We believe that this study will be the first of many studies which utilize
the wealth of data on human populations, existing in online genealogy datasets,
to better understand factors which influence human lifespan. Understanding
these factors can assist scientists in providing solutions for successful
aging
Quantitative Analysis of Genealogy Using Digitised Family Trees
Driven by the popularity of television shows such as Who Do You Think You
Are? many millions of users have uploaded their family tree to web projects
such as WikiTree. Analysis of this corpus enables us to investigate genealogy
computationally. The study of heritage in the social sciences has led to an
increased understanding of ancestry and descent but such efforts are hampered
by difficult to access data. Genealogical research is typically a tedious
process involving trawling through sources such as birth and death
certificates, wills, letters and land deeds. Decades of research have developed
and examined hypotheses on population sex ratios, marriage trends, fertility,
lifespan, and the frequency of twins and triplets. These can now be tested on
vast datasets containing many billions of entries using machine learning tools.
Here we survey the use of genealogy data mining using family trees dating back
centuries and featuring profiles on nearly 7 million individuals based in over
160 countries. These data are not typically created by trained genealogists and
so we verify them with reference to third party censuses. We present results on
a range of aspects of population dynamics. Our approach extends the boundaries
of genealogy inquiry to precise measurement of underlying human phenomena
The provision of fire services in rural areas
Fire services have been neglected in discussions of public service provision in rural areas. The way in which they are provided has a broader significance in terms of current debates about risk management. Fire service policy was transferred away from the Home Office, but the Bain Report provided the major stimulus to change. Early central government attempts to stimulate fire service provision in rural area were hampered by a lack of cooperation between local authorities. Rates of death from fire are influenced by attendance times and are particularly high in remote rural areas. The development of national standards of fire cover was focused on protecting property rather than saving lives with disproportionate funding being provided for urban areas. Social changes in rural areas have made it more difficult to secure sufficient numbers of retained fire fighters. It has proved particularly difficult to provide an adequate service in remote rural areas such as the Highlands and Islands of Scotland, despite recent policy initiatives there. Problems of providing fire cover are particularly acute on isolated islands. The development of integrated risk management plans should offer a more fine grained approach to providing fire cover. However, they may be too sophisticated for the task in rural areas and more traditional democratic mechanisms for expressing perceived community needs may have a greater relevance
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